Three polls from Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby this morning have to have the Clinton Team pulling out their hair:
Missouri Democrats
1-31/2-2Clinton 44%
Obama 43%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 13%Sample: 877 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage pointsCalifornia Democrats
1-31/2-2Clinton 41%
Obama 45%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 15%Sample: 1,141 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage pointsNew Jersey Democrats
1-31/2-2Clinton 43%
Obama 42%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 14%Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
Here are some interesting internals from the California poll:
Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).
If Obama wins California, he’s going to lay claim to the big prize and he could come away with more delegates on Tuesday.
Holy crap, those are close numbers. I can’t afford this kind of stress. I hope those undecideds break for Obama.
They could:
1 stay home
2 write in somebody
3 break evenly
4 break for one or the other
5 all of the above!
Oh sweet, holy parrot! I’ve this feeling.
Tsunami builds
Wonderful news for Democrats.
If the primaries were on the 12th instead of the 5th, I think he would blow this out of the water. I can’t recall ever seeing someone gain so much traction so fast.
“Reliable Sources” on CNN today is talking about Obama and the Kennedy endorsements and the comparisons to Camelot.
but there’s a deep Kennedy-Obama connection
TPM provides the link
JFK Is The Reason I Stand Here Today
By Greg Sargent – January 28, 2008, 1:54PM
Ethel Kennedy has joined in endorsing Obama.
.
“I have always liked him personally and I still do,” Truman said of John Fitzgerald Kennedy, then a second-term senator from Massachusetts, “and because of this feeling, I would want to say to him at this time: Senator, are you certain that you are quite ready for the country, or that the country is ready for you in the role of president in January 1961. I have no doubt about the political heights to which you are destined to rise. But I am deeply concerned and troubled about the situation we are up against in the world now and in the immediate future. That is why I would hope that someone with the greatest possible maturity and experience would be available at this time. May I urge you to be patient?”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Man, one little push could do it.
Edwards? Edwards?
Gore? Gore?
Bueller? Bueller?
He could win the overall popular vote in California, and if he does, then it will give him an extra boost of momentum.
But at the end of the day the delegate allocation is really the more interesting number.
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In most states, the most of the delegates are awarded by Congressional District where the two slates compete and the one with the most votes wins all the delegates from that district. Even if Obama were to carry California by, say 53-47, he might win the black districts by 80-20 and lose most or all of the white districts, giving Hillary the vast bulk of the delegates. Obama would have to get his margin of victory up to 8-10 points to be sure of sweeping the delegates in a given state.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
The link you posted says something different though:
I didn’t see anything at this link which suggests that within a district it is a winner-take-all.
.
You are so right on again!
The Democratic National Convention will be held August 25-28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado (Pepsi Center). At present, there are 4,367 delegate slots nationally (this number will change). Each state must have a Delegation which is 50% female, 50% male or within one, and must have a Delegate Selection Plan that includes Affirmative Action Goals (quotas are prohibited).
California Democrats will have:
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Obama’s campaign on the ground-door to door, just watch out. More than 75,000 volunteers, (mostly law students from Harvard and Chicago) moving state to state, just add these to the local volunteers. They’re runners, and on election day are assigned as voter protectors, monitors.
Community organizer experience well honed.
Feeling good today, are we?
What’s your prediction for the superbowl?
We Democrats are always worried about electing someone who could win the south. Obama is beating Clinton big time in GA(ignoring that rather large group of undecides):
Democrats
1-31/2-2
Clinton 28%
Obama 48%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 23%
If Obama can cary some southern states, wouldn’t it help him with the “electability” factor?
Missouri Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 13%
14% do not like either Clinton or Obama
California Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 15%
16% do not like Clinton and Obama
New Jersey Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 14%
15% do not like either Clinton or Obama
Sounds like a lot of potential new Greens, Libertarians and Nader Independents.
Ralph Nader for President in 2008
Obama and Clinton are both such panderers to the Jim Crow right-wing of America that they are driving people out of the Democratic Party in the same way that they have been driving liberals and the left out of the Party since the days of Bubba Bill.
I don’t see how Hillary can win the nomination if she loses California and New Jersey, the latter to sting all the more because she really needs to win the entire tri-state area. And now Connecticut is too close to call.
Not looking good for Team Clinton.
and New York is at risk for a split. Just a hunch he’ll take the 5 boroughs, otherwise called New York City.
McClatchy has Hillary up nine, 45 to 36.
And I don’t agree that California wins Obama the nomination. If the rest of the numbers for the other states hold up, Hillary still wins a majority of states, and this thing just very contentious and lasts for a while.
I think the truth of the matter is that nobody knows. We’ve seen polls pointing to Clinton winning and polls pointing to Obama winning, but the overall trend seems to be Obama having momentum. There are a lot of wild cards to consider, though. What role will early voting — the dumbest idea I can imagine, by the way — play? Did they go strongly enough, and in sufficient numbers, to hand it to Clinton in Cal? Have the polls we’re seeing there taken account of the early voters already? (Anybody have an idea on that?) It’ll be interesting.
Part of me thinks Clinton has it wrapped up for Tuesday, winning the big states she needs to win. But another part of me thinks of the trends, and it feels a bit like Kerry and Dean in Iowa, except that the movement candidate is the one surging here.
My sister must have been part of the Reuters/CNN/Zogby poll for Missouri done yesterday because she said the pollster asked about Clinton, Obama and Gravel … and she told them she had never heard of Gravel.
Very close numbers but a lot of undecideds. My general feel is undecideds in MO break for Obama because Hillary is so well known but … the undecideds include women and they may choose to go with Hillary. Right now there is a chance of bad weather on Tuesday. I have no idea who that favors. And the weather people are less reliable than pollsters. 🙂
I can’t wait for Tuesday to see what happens.