Every prognosticator I’ve seen agrees that neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to roll up a big delegate advantage today. Both candidates will emerge with about the same mathematical chance to win the nomination as they had before the people went to vote. For that reason, the real battle today is psychological, and that means that spin is probably more important than reality. Part of winning the media battle is setting expectations so that you can meet or exceed them. I think both candidates have done a fair job on this front. Obama has succeeded in getting the media to cover Super Tuesday as more of a delgate-winning than a state-winning contest. Clinton has succeeded in preparing the media for a split decision. The perceived winner tonight, if there is one, will succeed by winning certain states.
If Obama wins California and several other states, he will definitely be cast as the winner. For Obama to get a landslide win he needs to be victorious in California and Missouri, and then either Connecticut or New Jersey. Zogby has Obama up 13% in California and up 3% in Missouri, but SurveyUSA has Obama down 10% in California and down 11% in Missouri. It’s too close to call.
Clinton will be able to claim a victory if she holds on in California, Missouri, New Jersey, and Connecticut. She’ll be able to lay claim to a resounding victory is she wins, in addition, Alabama and Tennessee, and big caucus states like Minnesota.
Those are the keys contests. If Obama wins the spin cycle he will probably be unstoppable. He outraised Clinton 30 million to 13 million in January and he will continue to outraise her going forward because so many Clinton supporters have already donated the maximum legal amount. With momentum, money, and media adoration, and a favorable slew of upcoming state contests, Obama would likely cruise to victory even if he didn’t win a (non-superdelegate) majority of delegates.
If Clinton wins the spin cycle, Obama will fight on, but weakened, tarnished, and desperate to start winning almost all of the remaining contests. That’s what is at stake.
If what you are saying is that spin is the winner (and I totally agree with you) then what I read into your post is that it is the media that is in control! And if this is correct, then the citizenry can retake control if they are willing to exert their power.The tragedy is that they don’t know that they have the power!
What a effing shame!
the media is always in control…why do you think McCain just won the Republican nomination? Why do you think we bloggers do what we do? It’s to take a piece of the media back for thinking people.
But the candidates still have to perform. If they don’t perform, a la Giuliani, no amount of media hype can help them.
my forays into right wing radio have been fruitful.
Friday morning, the Glenn Beck show was going ballistic about McCain’s candidacy, and how he was just as bad as Clinton. Friday evening, Hannity’s guest Rick Santorum went on a LONG diatribe about how Romney was the real conservative and that McCain was old, crazy, bad-tempered, and not a conservative.
Yesterday, Limbaugh went after McCain, saying America’s direction in Iraq would not be substantially different even if Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama were elected and practically endorsing Romney.
This morning, Beck was after McCain again, saying he wasn’t a conservative and (iirc) saying he’d be worse than Clinton.
Gotta love it. I hope they completely destroy the GOP.
Yeah- they are after Mccain. But- watch out for these bastards. they are so two-faced that they are capable of turning on a dime. They will do anything and I mean anything to retain control.
Could this be part of a insidious plan to aid the goopers in creating an environment in which nothing that the Dems attempt to do can be achieved, thus creating an atmosphere in which they will be dramatically defeated in the next cycle.
Now to the much more serious question- How is the NEWBIE!
Of course I know who is controlling. I’m not disparaging you and in any way belittling the enormous contributions you and the rest of the sphere have made. What I am suggesting is that given the one single chink in the media armour that can be breached is their “Bottom Line”! And, maybe, just maybe, the sphere can offer the following- A- Awareness Training!
It is possible! “WE” can force the media to honestly address the truth! Maybe, just maybe, we have reached the point at which a serious BOYCOTT of every major product that sponsors those media sources that color, distort and/or lie about the stae of this country! It has worked in the past and it can work again.
In addition, maybe what also has to take place is a continuing public display of our disgust and disapproval of what is happening in our government! Just look at the latest budget offering of this administration. 700+ BILLION for Defense! That is so far beyond conception that it enters the world of INSANITY!
And doesn’t this really mean that the corporations that own those media outlets control the elections. This sidebar of yours makes an interesting point, maybe even insightful.
Does the media spin the election for advertising dollars, or does it do it with the intent of gaining political advantages in the future? Politics then is just another component of the advertising industry.
Exactly. Big Media is the culmination of the advertising industry, not an outgrowth.
We are told who are choices are.
Look at the way Howard Dean was destroyed by Big Media for ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Someone decided to kill him off, and they waited for any incident to come along, hyped it into a travesty, and spread the meme across the entire network, liberal and conservative, and every shark came rushing to shred Dean to bits.
Don’t you see that’s why Edwards left the race? Big Media neglected him, made him invisible, despite the $$ he had to spend, they will make more off of Obama — who just raised $30 million, so another dead candidate. And a candidate that hinted at empowering the lower classes — GOD FORBID!!!!!
I’m STILL voting for Kucinich. I refuse to be herded by Big Media. The slight differences between Hil and Ob and McCain are not substantial enough for me to feel desperate and fearful.
The danger isn’t President McCain. It’s when President McCain keels over and is replaced by President Huckabee.
I have two strategies for dealing with this. One is that I’ll hold my nose and vote for the Dem come November. The other is the big stack of Japanese and Spanish textbooks on my desk. Fight, and if necessary, flee.
I jumped on the Obama train and voted for him here in Missouri.
Me too. So, at least we know he got two votes here. 😉
For two polls to differ by substantially greater than the margin of error makes it impossible to take either of them seriously. At least one of them is seriously flawed.
with Georgia, Connecticut, Alabama and Arizona. Dead heat in New Jersey, dead heat to losing in Missouri.
Link right here.
I’d sure like to see Obama confound all expectations.
Oh, laissez les bon temps roulez, yall. Here’s to a Dem president that will get more black New Orleanians back home and fix those damn levees.
I waited an hour to vote, lots of turnout. I’m so nervous that I may disable the internet browser so I can keep my arteries from popping today
(who am I kidding?)
I thought you voted early?
I filled it out but ended up going to my polling place this morning because I was curious for turnout.
My morning news was reporting that polls for CA were 42% for Obama and 44% for Clinton. Way too close to call.
I voted at 8:00 a.m. this morning. There was only a five minute wait, but it is a small precinct. What I found interesting was a list of all registered voters by address, name, party, and telephone number posted on the doors as you enter. My co-worker swears this is normal, but I swear I have never seen such a thing before. On the plus side, I noted that less than 3% of my neighbors are registered Republicans! I noted one republican in my building, so now I will have to shun him. <jk>
If Obama wins CA, with or without Missouri, he’s proven he can cut into the heart of Clinton’s base. THis was her state as recently as a few days ago. What his organization has done here is phenomenal.
I’ll note I’ve been called three times by the Obama campaign. I’ve gotten NO calls from the Clinton campaign. Not at any point in the last month.
There is an Obama ad running for a couple of weeks, and an anti-Hillary Romney ad running for a week, and in the last few days, a pro-Hillary ad that’s got RFK Jr. and Cesar Chavez’s grandson talking. But her coverage here has been light.