Much of the so-called success of the surge strategy in Iraq has had little to do with the escalation of troop levels by the Pentagon, and much to do with agreements between US forces and local Sunni tribes and former insurgents. These “Awakening Councils” have agreed to patrol their own districts and combat Al Qaeda in Iraq forces in exchange for arms, money and other support from the US military. In essence, American troops let Sunnis fight Sunnis so they wouldn’t have to do so, reducing American deaths, even while the Shi’ite dominated government in Baghdad adamantly opposed this tactic, fearing it was only offering their sectarian rivals a chance to regroup and rearm in preparation for the day when the US withdrew its forces in whole or part.
Well, now it appears that the “arm the Sunnis, too” strategy (which pre-dated the surge by several months) is beginning to unravel, as some Awakening Council leaders are withdrawing from their agreements with the Americans:
Sunni armed groups known as Awakening Councils appear to have withdrawn their support for US forces and the Iraqi government in Diyala province.
The move has been seen as a significant blow to the US, which has hailed the groups’ work in securing towns and neighbourhoods as a rare success in increasing security in the country. […]
In Diyala province, a curfew has been imposed after the Sunni Awakening Councils ended patrols of towns and neighbourhoods.
Tensions began mounting after two girls were kidnapped and killed last week by men dressed in Iraqi security forces uniform. Their bodies were later found stripped naked.
The armed groups gave the chief of police until midday on Friday to apologise and arrest the men, who they say are Shia militiamen in the Iraqi security forces.
“We hereby declare suspension of all co-operation with both US military, Iraqi security forces and the local government,” Abu Abdullah, spokesman for Diyala’s Awakening Council, announced after the deadline passed. […]
Hoda Abdel-Hamid, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Iraq, said: “As US forces push into Diyala as part of a massive operation to clear up the province, they need these people.
“And once you have one Awakening Council who is going to retract, it might be more difficult to convince others citizens anywhere else to be part of these Awakening Councils.” […]
The crisis threatens to spread as Awakening Councils in Falluja, Ramadi and certain neighbourhoods in Baghdad, complain of a lack of support from the government.
What does this mean in the short term? More US patrols and therefore the risk of higher US casualties in Diyala province and elsewhere. Indeed, that may have already started to occur:
Meanwhile, the US military announced that five American soldiers were killed in two roadside bombings on Friday.
Four of the deaths occurred in Baghdad and one in Tamim province, the US military said in two separate statements on Saturday. The Tamim blast also wounded three soldiers.
The problems in Diyala province also underscore the unresolved sectarian tensions between the Awakening Councils and the Shi’ite dominated government, police and army forces. We bought a very small measure of reduced fighting with our support of Sunni tribes who had previously opposed our forces, but we haven’t eliminated the fundamental political problem in Iraq which is the sectarian and ethnic divisions between Shi’ite and Sunni, Arab and Kurd. Those divisions cannot be resolved merely by using Sunni proxies to fight the Sunni based Al Qaeda in Iraq on our behalf.
The surge has created a false sense of progress, but underneath, nothing has really changed. And without political progress involving reconciliation and compromise among all the groups in Iraq, any benefits from the military escalation Bush (and our sycophantic American media) labeled the “Surge” will be ephemeral at best. At any moment, the smallest spark can relight the tinderbox of sectarian strife and the current level of violence, which declined but has not been eradicated by any stretch of the imagination, will increase dramatically once more.
And, as always our troops, and innocent Iraqi civilians will be caught in the crossfire.
More from the International Herald tribune:
And evidence that the Awakening Council approach of divide and conquer won’t work in Mosul:
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But the increasing reliance by the United States military on “Awakening” forces in their military operations against groups who have not joined “the Awakening” (read: “Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia”) means that the US is essentially setting up two sides against each other – first by forming, arming, and training Iraqi Army and police forces hopelessly infiltrated by sectarian Shiite militia members, and then by creating “Awakening” forces overwhelming dominated by members of Sunni armed groups opposed to the current government’s dominance by sectarian Shiite political groups.
What, we have to ask, will happen when newly re-armed and increasingly powerful “ Awakening Councils ” continue to operate essentially independently of the central Iraqi government? This is the gift that the US has given to Awakening forces — essential total control in the areas in which they are based, with the support of US forces against any challengers. They will, it seems likely, emerge from this phase of US policy in Iraq heavily armed, having solidified control over their areas of operation, and without strong needs to be associated with a discredited and largely irrelevant (in their eyes) central government.
Another set of lines in the next stage of Iraq’s civil conflict are drawn ( see here for analysis of comments on this over at Informed Comment), and groups on either side continue to find support from some actors in countries in the region with something to gain from an ongoing proxy war in Iraq (read: Saudi Arabia and Iran). And the US just announced plans to engage in one of the largest arms deals in history, effectively dumping $60 billion dollars of weapons into the hands of regimes opposing Iran in the region (including, notably for our purposes, Saudi Arabia).
Iran stealing Iraq’s oil on border
Where did we hear this argument before?
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
first- add 1 more dead. GI died tuesday. We now have to watch out for delayed reporting of KIA’s.
Now, Steven, as long as the US media refuses to report the actual ongoing situation in Iraq this administration will continue to behave as the war criminals that they are. Remember, Impeachment is Off The Table!
I offer one tenuous possibility for change. The “YOUTH VOTE”! Look at the figures! They are incredible. If this vote can be encouraged, there will be a dramatic change in the future of this country. I would be willing to bet that this potential vote is scaring the shit out of the Power bases of the potential candidates.
I’m confused how more guns can make it more successful. I mean besides killing everyone…I guess if everyone is dead then there’ll be no more fighting, but I’m still unclear on what exactly is the purpose of this whole thing. If you’re going to up your troop numbers, stop selling weapons to the people troops are suppose to fight. How hard is that? Why isn’t Congress or the Pentagon doing anything about that?
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Fairchild AFB is home to a Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape (SERE) Program. SERE Programs train soldiers, seaman, airmen, CIA operatives, and others-including foreign nationals-in resistance techniques. However, they also provide military and other government torturers, trainers, foreign nationals, contractors (aka US government mercenaries employed by corporations such as Blackwater, CACI International, Titan Corp, and SAIC) and psychologists, among others, the opportunity to develop, refine, practice and polish their torture techniques.
[Some links are mine – Oui]
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Good post Steven. We need to keep repeating the obvious truth over and over again because the received wisdom is the opposite. Keep at it.
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A German government spokesman has contradicted a media report suggesting Berlin plans to significantly expand the number of its soldiers in Afghanistan under growing American pressure.
German government spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm denied a report in German news magazine Der Spiegel which said Germany plans to expand the number of its soldiers in Afghanistan by 1,000 to 4,500 and broaden their base of operation.
“There are no such considerations in the Chancellery,” Wilhelm told Reuters in response to questions about the report.
Gates calms tensions with Germany over Afghanistan
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Well, well, well, that didn’t take long did it?
Give the Sunnis about nine months to regroup, and even rearm thanks to Gen Betrayus, as well as resupply from the clueless general, and they are set to go back TO BUSINESS AS USUAL.
Damn, … I wonder why He couldn’t figger out that is what they were a doing all along, him supposedly being a smart general and all?
Might it be because he spent so much time LYING about Iran arming the insurgents, all the while it was the US Army doing it on HIS orders?
Of course this includes making sure the “report he gave congress” on 9-11-2007, looked good with all the bribery he used to tamp down the violence for a while.
Or maybe it was part of the plan to screw things up so badly that the next president can’t leave with out the reichwing screeching like the gutless banshees they all are.
What ever, if he is the best the neo-cons have got, and HE armed them for nine months with NO way to control them now? Well we should just pack up and come on home, because HE guaranteed they will prevail in the end, thanks to the arms he gave them and the money he paid them.
Looks like Move On did get it wrong, they should have used the headline Gen Clueless.