I think we have finally reached the point where we can begin to talk about a presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain. In this piece I want to focus on a strategy for John McCain.
As McCain looks around, he has to take note of some daunting obstacles.
1. Head-to-head polling favors Obama.
2. Polling shows a generic preference for Democrats in both the congressional and the presidential races.
3. Public attitudes on government and social issues are trending to the left.
4. Party registration and self-identification highly favors the Democrats.
5. Differential turnout has massively favored the Democrats in both primaries and caucuses.
And that is just for starters. Americans (61%) want U.S. troops out of Iraq within a year. McCain compares unfavorably with Obama on the stump and in any beauty contest. McCain is shorter. And McCain is much, much older and cannot hope to match Obama’s energy. On top of this, McCain’s greatest strength (experience) just fell flat when Hillary Clinton attempted to use it in her campaign. Finally, McCain is deeply unpopular with the Republican base, while Obama will enjoy an uncommon unity (provided Clinton drops out soon, and graciously).
A McCain-Obama matchup looks like a recipe for a 40-plus state Democratic victory with deep, deep congressional coattails that could bring in a Democratic ruling majority so large that it could rule for decades (no, I am not exaggerating). So, what can McCain do to stop or minimize the carnage?
First, he needs to take an honest look at the landscape and recognize that the Republican coalition is dead and that he cannot compete with Obama by pushing a Reaganite set of policies. McCain’s political hero is Teddy Roosevelt, and McCain should emulate Roosevelt as closely as possible in formulating his general election strategy. That requires that McCain abandon any pretense of representing the base of the GOP and start pushing a progressive platform of reform. McCain should talk about balancing the budget and ditch his pledges to not raise taxes. He should talk about tackling big business interests in order to address global warming and promote a healthier environment. McCain should talk about our national parks and conservation. He should run hard against his own party and their intrusion into the Terri Schiavo case, people’s bedrooms, and their sanctimony. McCain should run a decisively non-Southern strategy.
This would be a start, but it won’t be enough on its own. McCain needs to get the maximum bang out of his vice-presidential selection. He needs to pick a woman (and hope that Obama does not) and he needs to pick a northerner who, hopefully, shares his enthusiasm for reform. No one fits that bill better than Governor Jodi Rell of Connecticut, although other possibilities include Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine and former New Jersey Governor Christie Todd Whitman.
One of Obama’s great intangibles is that almost no one, even his political opponents, wants to see him attacked. That is the same type of intangible Sen. Olympia Snowe brings to the table. Regardless of vice-presidential selection, McCain cannot succeed by tearing Obama down or swift-boating him. Any serious attempt to attack Obama personally will fail just as surely and swiftly as Bill Clinton’s antics in South Carolina. In fact, one major challenge for McCain is to keep the racists and xenophobes in the GOP in the closet.
I know this post is a little disjointed, but let me just summarize. McCain needs to push a new non-Southern agenda that pulls more from Teddy Roosevelt than from Ronald Reagan. He needs to try to pick up women voters by selecting a highly qualified, moderate woman as his vice-presidential nominee. He needs to take on big business (at least in an environmental sense). He can try to tie Obama to teacher’s unions, and he can talk about free market solutions on health care (tying costs to frivolous law suits) and keep some other pieces of the Bush playbook, but most of it should go in the trash-bin.
McCain’s job is not really to win this election, as that is almost impossible for him to accomplish. But he can leave a lasting legacy on his party and the nation, and minimize the downticket carnage, by running hard to win in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest suburbs, rather than trying to appeal to southern, exurban, and rural voters. He should probably rule out appointing judges that would overturn Roe, but that is asking too much, right?
Conservatives are giving McCain the opposite advice, naturally. They say that he needs to hew more closely to Reagan’s policies. They’re wrong. If McCain does that, it is quite possible that there will be almost no Republicans left north of the Mason-Dixon line. Obama and the Democrat’s strengths are just too enormous for the old Republican party to survive as anything more than a rump party. If McCain sticks with that old coalition, the GOP will be totally wiped out. But if McCain can limit the fallout and begin the GOP’s transition to a more moderate party that can compete in the demographics of a new America, then he will leave a legacy worthy of his effort.
This comment is pure fluff, but it’s been driving me nuts looking at the news photos and Booman reminded me of it:
What the heck is the deal with McCain’s jowls and neck? I’ve never seen fat bulge that way on a human face. He looks bloated and lopsided. Is that just some personal quirk of appearance, or does he have some kind of medical condition that makes him look that way?
Seriously. John McCain looks really odd.
he has skin cancer on one side of face, and it had to be removed, which left him looking lopsided.
Ah, okay, that makes sense then. Especially since I didn’t recall him looking that way several years ago.
Didn’t he have injuries to his jaw related to Vietnam? In addition to the cancer? Not certain.
McCain should just declare himself an Imperialist, and get it over. Emperor of an Empire. See the front page of ThinkProgress.org this morning. . . .
You’re neglecting that little thing. There’s no question that Obama can outfundraise McCain and I’m sure the McCain would have no problem letting 527s do his dirty work. Personally, I think Axelrod (once again) let this non-story get out of hand. But, I expect McCain to pound this every chance he can until Clinton drops out.
Speaking of his wonderful friend, Clinton…This past week, it’s clear that both of them have decided to become study buddies and hit Obama from both sides. McCain benefits from Clinton still in the race, as she can repeat his attacks and since she was a First Lady, they get amplified.
McCain should push for public financing and hit Obama on it relentlessly. It should be a part of his overall reform message.
surprised you wrote that. McCain has been tripped up on the issue. This morning NPR, to my surprise, covered all the nuggets on McCain’s bank loan – his attempt to use public financing in repayment if he lost.
Mark Schmitt has the details.
more here
BETTING THE SPREAD.
McCain is no reformer.
Yes, I’ve thought of that. Having a gigantic disadvantage in funding makes this an obvious move.
One of the problems — as I wrote recently — is the demand by Huckabee that McCain eliminate McCain-Feingold. It has the appearance of a conservative litmus test, which rationalizes the continuing Huckabee candidacy. But it could be dropped, and quite easily, and everyone would pretty much forget about it.
I think Obama should take him up on it, with all the stated objections that were part of the McCain-Feingold debate — soft money, etc. Just as it would be unacceptable for Obama to accept the Florida & Michigan primaries as is, it would be silly to accept the public funding system as is.
Entering into a long negotiation on the subject, with a real intent to produce a working system, would put the public’s attention on that issue, as well as dominate the campaign discussion. There are many issues — such as equal access to government — that could flow from a discussion on this topic. Moreover, there’s lots of free press. Challenging McCain’s somewhat insincere offer would be a very good idea. After all, we do want public financing.
It’s not a poison pawn we’d be accepting, but the chance to explore this issue area. And, since he made the offer, he can’t back away from it without revealing his hypocrisy. Discussing it would also create a split with his conservative base.
Finally, assuming the soft money can be limited (which is obviously an unrealistic assumption), Obama would have a great natural advantage over McCain even without funding, and the free press would dominate the press’ narrative. Forgoing his money advantage would be dangerous, but there’s a tremendous upside in that it would demonstrate substance to his change theme, along with showing that he could ‘act’ to change the politics a usual. Even failing to get an agreement is so bad, since it reveals ‘who’ is obstructing change.
You know, if someone made a joke about my daughter being ugly I don’t think I could sit there and play drinking buddy with them. I don’t get it.
What can you do? I’ve cut off friends and family for more minor rudeness. What I don’t get is how does McCain look at himself everyday knowing he said something so horrible about a little girl. Karma’s a serious bitch in this case, because it was the “McCain has a black baby” that brought him down in 2000.
last night, a strategist on GOP Talk radio summed up the McCain challenge:
“With Obama as his opponent, McCain will be running against Ronald Reagan, the great communicator.”
I’ve been mulling the VP spot on both GOP and Dem ticket and I agree, Obama should not select a woman…there’s no need and it would be awkward considering he trumped Hillary.
I didn’t say that he shouldn’t pick a woman. I think he should.
I think you needs to chose either a man or a woman.
no hermaphrodites?
BooMan, thanks for picking me up. For the past month, I’m with low vision (due eye surgery from an accident) but I thought I read this:
I was responding to “Hope Obama does not” My bad. I’ll delete “I agree” but still think Obama should not select a woman. Imho, to counter his perceived inexperience, Obama will need weight in the foreign policy-national security or military disciplines.
i think its really wrong to think the republicans cant win this election.
first off they are going to cheat every way they can think of….the dems will cheat too but the repubs are just way better at it than we are…they have had 7 years to build the system to their favor so that the cheating is easier and entrenched in a difficult to overcome system….think about the long lines in nov, the purged voter rolls, the machines that dont work, the judges put in place by repubs who will rule on irregularities….its going to be very hard to overcome all that.
second they are going to swiftboat like crazy….obama and larry sinclair with the gay sex and cocaine in the back of the limo in 1999 is just the beginning….think back to how the repubs swiftboated their own including mccain and multiply that by 1000.
third…and i really believe this is a possibility….they will allow if not outright be behind a terrorist strike on american soil…..scare the crap out of people and they will turn to the guy who they see as more militarized….the caveman with the bigger perceived club…the guy who talks the toughest and protects our collective dicks from being lopped off again.
the only hope i have is the fact that it looks like the dems have twice as many people motivated to go out and vote for them as the repubs do…we are going to need to win in huge margins to overcome the lying and cheating and having to go to the courts to decide close elections.
we are going to have to be really uncomfortable….uncomfortable enough to be willing to strike and protest for real this time.
setting aside the possibility that Republicans will attack the United States, the Republicans can’t cheat their way out of this one anymore than they cheated their way out of the 2006 midterms.
They have no money, no support (even from Wall Street), they hate their candidate, their positions on the war and on the issues are lagging badly. Personal attacks on Obama backfire and will continue to backfire. People like him, even if they aren’t sure that he’s the best person to be president. They recoil at attacks on him. The press likes him and will continue to like him (perhaps even love him, now that he slayed the hated Clinton family).
McCain cannot win this election. He couldn’t have beaten Clinton, but he’ll be slaughtered by Obama unless he does something along the lines of what I advise here (which he won’t do).
I saw McCain this morning on TV. A long interview during which he attacked Obama for wanting to “surrender” in Iraq, said it was a lie that the surge wasn’t working, political goals were being met, and Obama wanted to give Iraq to al-Queida.
I think that is Mccain’s platform. For the non-prejudiced, the choice will come down to which is greater, fear of al_Queida or fear of recession. McCain is totally vulnerable on the economy. Obama’s ads should prominently feature the shot of McCain with his arms around Bush, similar to Bill Foster’s ads against Oberweis in IL-14.
Don’t be too sure about the war as an issue. In 1968, most people were sick of the war, but elected Nixon anyway on the same “peace with honor” crap that McCain is pushing.
And I think Lieberman will run as McCain’s VP on a “bi-partisan” ticket. The meme is “Obama is too extreme”. And expect a lot of Obama/Osama “bloopers” with emphasis on his middle name.
this is the money quote in the whole piece.
you’re suggesting that he turn into the maverick he loves to talk about but has never been. There’s nothing wrong with any of that advice except that there’s no chance of him taking it.
So much for the relevance of an Edwards endorsement. He missed his chance to be a player, it won’t matter now even if did do something crazy and endorse Hillary. Maybe he got what he wanted by having the candidates address his core issues more after he dropped out.
I still think the symbolism of a black man running with a white Southerner as VP is dynamite.
Nitpicking:
You probably meant sanctity.
Roe won’t be overturned, to do so would provide a leftwing rallying point of a magnitude heretofore unseen. Instead, Roe’s application will continue to be silently narrowed, a process already underway.
This analysis is otherwise good and thoughtful, BooMan. McCain must distance himself from both Bush and Reagan. Rell is probably one of his best VP choices. She entered the governor’s mansion after the former occupant’s scandals and has provided stability since that time. She was also dealing with her own breast cancer during this time.
Well, it looks like Hillary is going to give McCain a head start on the swift-boating attacks. This can only help McCain down the road in a general election contest against Obama.
New Pro-Clinton 527 to Ding Obama in Ohio
We knew that it would come to this, didn’t we? It can do nothing but help the Republicans, though I don’t think it will have a significant, long term impact on Obama.
It is just another demonstration that the DLC crowd does not take kindly to the new kids on the block stealing their ball and bat and taking over their game.
The sooner this crowd is sent packing, the better off we will be.
Why are you offering McCain any advice at all?
If anything, you should be encouraging him to do all the wrong things.
either way, the old man is going to lose, but my god: make sure his loss has coattails as long as those of Obama’s win.
Don’t tell the guy to abandon the Terri Schiavo crowd: tell him to embrace them! Tell him to attack Roe v. Wade constantly and appear with people like Randall Terry! Tell him to keep pointing out that corporate profits are up and that the economy is doing GREAT!
In other words, hand McCain an anvil.
it’s not like he’ll follow my advice, but you know what?
As much as I detest the Republican Party, we need it to rebuild on a saner basis. That requires the strongest repudiation, but McCain could do part of the job himself by rejecting the party’s orthodoxy preemptively.
Let me paint you a picture of what could happen to the Republicans in the fall if McCain tries to run on a Reagan platform.
The GOP could lose Senate seats in New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon. Those seats will not come back until they build a national party that abandons the southern strategy.
They could lose Senate seats in Idaho, Colorado, Nebraska, and New Mexico. Those seats will be safe until the GOP reasserts their libertarian (non-southern) roots.
Add to this, the GOP could lose their last House seat in New England (Chris Shays), three seats in New Jersey, 4 seats in New York, 3 seats in Pennsylvania, 5 seats in Ohio, three seats in Michigan, four seats in Illinois, and two seats in Minnesota. They won’t win back those seats until they develop a non-southern strategy.
And they are going to lose a Senate seat in Virginia, which will probably vote Democratic in the presidential election. North Carolina could echo that experience, and the Dems could pick up Senate seats in Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas, and Mississippi, just to add salt to the wounds. Oh…and Alaska.
The Dems could pick up as many as six congressional seats from Florida.
All of this is within reach if McCain doesn’t preemptively act to change his campaign away from a southern strategy.
And if all that happens, the GOP will be forced to recruit new kinds of candidates, certainly not movement conservatives, to win back seats. Why wait for the drubbing? McCain can get the job started before the worst happens.
I agree that the ‘Money Party’ has major rebuilding to do. I’m not worried about them, because they have the money to do what’s necessary. They are a hydra-headed monster. But as to your recommendations, I don’t think they are doable because of the compact the thugs made with the Fundamentalist devil. That base is not going to come out for a ‘northern moderate’ programme. It will stay home. The down-ticket losses will be the same no matter what.
The thugs are going to have take a bath like the Conservatives did in Canada in 1993, when they went from being a majority government to having only two seats. It took them a dozen years to reconstitute themselves into a party that just barely managed a minority government last time out. The thugs are in for a long walk in the wilderness.
I don’t disagree that our country needs a healthy two-party system to stay healthy. But it has to be functional. What we’ve had since the late 1980s has been deeply disfunctional.
and you’re right, he’s not going to change his strategy, that would mean he’d have to flip-flop…oh wait…nevermind.
Boy, you sure talk purty.
Once that happens maybe we can start focusing on the “elect better Democrats” part of the agenda.
BooMan, understand I am not laughing at you, but this diary had me drumming my heels on the floor.
McCain vs. Obama.
Just on entertainment value alone, I would like to see this. It is the icing on the cake of saving the country.
Personally, I do not see McCain doing anything smart like trying to reform the GOP. And the rednecks and xenophobes will be out in force and it will show the nation just what the GOP base really is.
Now excuse me while I go change my pants.
First he should stop trying to get our sympathy by having his aids post a story about his infidelity. I’ve already lost any hope for main stream media. His big talk about using the military is just that. More than likely,if he did win, he would be working with big Democratic majorities in both houses. His chances of squeezing money from them like George has got from his former GOP majorities is no chance. Obama or Clinton will have the majorities to sway in the direction they would want – I’m hoping for diplomacy instead of more war.