I have identified 71 seats in the House of Representatives that are currently held by a Republican, but have a Democrat challenger who raised a significant amount of money in 2007. This is not a complete list of competitive seats because some recent retirements (in Louisiana, for example) were unexpected and no Democrat was planning a serious challenge last year.
Below the fold, I list the 71 seats (with their PVI’s), and the challengers. Some of these seats will have primaries. I only list multiple names if there are multiple candidates that have raised five figures worth of money. Some candidates may have dropped out despite raising a lot of money. Let me know and I’ll update the list.
What I’d actually like to figure out is which of these Democrats might turn out to be good Democrats and which are likely to wind up in jail or, worse, in the Joe Lieberman Hall of Shame. Wanna give me a hand?
P.S. If you can find a candidate website, please put a link in the comments and I’ll update the diary.
Alabama
1. District 02 (PVI R+13)
Incumbent: Terry Everett (retiring)
Republican Primary: Jay Love, etc.
Democrat: Bobby Bright
Alaska
2. At-Large (PVI R+14)
Incumbent: Don Young
Primary challenger: Gabrielle Ledoux
Democrats: Ethan Berkowitz, Diane Benson, Jake Metcalfe
Arizona
3. District 01 (PVI R+2)
Incumbent: Rick Renzi (indicted on 35 counts today)
Democrats: Ann Fitzpatrick, Howard Shanker, Mary Kim Titla
4. District 03 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: John Shadegg (reneged on promise to retire today)
Democrat: Bob Lord
California
5. District 04 (PVI R+11)
Incumbent: John Doolittle (retiring)
Frontrunner: Eric Egland
Democrat: Charlie Brown
6. District 26 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: David Dreier
Democrat: Russ Warner
7. District 41 (PVI R+9)
Incumbent: Jerry Lewis
Democrat: Tim Prince
8. District 50 (PVI +5)
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray
Democrat: Nick Liebham
9. District 52 (PVI +9)
Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (retiring)
Frontrunner: Duncan D. Hunter (son of incumbent)
Democrat: Mike Lumpkin
Colorado
10. District 04 (PVI R+9)
Incumbent: Marilyn Musgrave
Democrat: Betsy Markey
Connecticut
11. District 04 (PVI D+5)
Incumbent: Christopher Shays
Democrat: Jim Himes
Delaware
12. At Large (PVI D+7)
Incumbent: Michael Castle
Democrat: Jerry Northington
Florida
13. District 08 (PVI R+3)
Incumbent: Ric Keller
Democrats: Michael James Smith, Charlie Stuart
14. Distict 09 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Gus Bilirakis
Democrat: John Dicks
15. District 13 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Vern Buchanan
Democrat: Christine Jennings
16. District 15 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Dave Weldon (retiring)
Republican primary: ???
Democrat: Steve Blythe
17. District 18 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Democrat: Annette Taddeo
18. District 21 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart
Democrat: Raul Martinez
19. District 24 (PVI R+3)
Incumbent: Tom Feeney
Democrat: Suzanne Kosmas
20. District 25 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart
Democrat: Joe Garcia
Idaho
21. District 01 (PVI R+19)
Incumbent: William Sali
Democrat: Walt Minnick
Illinois
22. District 06 (PVI R+3)
Incumbent: Peter Roskam
Democrat: Jill Morganthaler
23. District 10 (PVI D+4)
Incumbent: Mark Kirk
Democrat: Dan Seals
24. District 11 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Jerry Weller (retiring)
Republican: Tim Baldermann (dropped out)
Democrat: Debbie Halverson
25. District 13 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Judy Biggert
Democrat: Scott Harper
26. District 14 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: none/Dennis Hastert resigned
Republican: Jim Oberweis
Democrat: Bill Foster
27. District 16 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Dan Manzullo
Democrat: Robert Abboub
Indiana
28. District 03 (PVI R+16)
Incumbent: Mark Souder
Democrat: Mike Montagano
29. District 04 (PVI R+17)
Incumbent: Steve Buyer
Democrat: Nels Ackerson
Iowa
30. District 04 (PVI D+0)
Incumbent: Tom Latham
Democrat: Selden Spencer
31. District 05 (PVI R+8)
Incumbent: Steven King
Democrat: Rob Hubler
Maryland
32. District 01 (PVI R+10)
Incumbent: Wayne Gilchrest (defeated in primary)
Republican: Andy Harris
Democrat: Frank Krotovil Jr.
33. District 06 (PVI R+13)
Incumbent: Roscoe Bartlett
Democrat: Jennifer Dougherty
Michigan
34. District 07 (PVI R+2)
Incumbent: Tim Walberg
Democrats: Mark Schauer, Dave Nacht
35. District 09 (PVI R+0)
Incumbent: Joe Knollenberg
Democrat: Gary Peters
Minnesota
36. District 03 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Jim Ramstad (retiring)
Republican: Erik Paulsen
Democrats: Terri Bonoff, Ashwin Madia
37. District 06 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Michelle Bachmann
Democrat: Elwyn Tinklenberg
Missouri
38. District 06 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Sam Graves
Democrat: Kay Barnes
Nevada
39. District 03 (PVI D+1)
Incumbent: John Porter
Democrats: Robert Daskas, Andrew Martin
New Jersey
40. District 03 (PVI D+3)
Incumbent: Jim Saxton (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: John Adler
41. District 04 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Chris Smith
Democrat: Josh Zeitz
42. District 05 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Scott Garrett
Democrat: Dennis Schulman
43. District 07 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Mike Ferguson (retiring)
Republican: Kate Whitman (daughter of Christie Todd Whitman)
Democrat: Linda Stender
New Mexico
44. District 01 (PVI D+2)
Incumbent: Heather Wilson (running for Senate)
Republican: Darren White
Democrat: Martin Heinrich
45. District 02 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: Steve Pearce (running for Senate)
Republicans: Ed Tinsley, Aubrey Dunn
Democrats: Harry Teague, Bill McCamley
New York
46. District 13 (PVI D+1)
Incumbent: Vito Fossella
Democrats: Stephen Harrison, Domenic Recchia
47. District 23 (PVI R+0)
Incumbent: John McHugh
Democrat: Michael Oot
48. District 25 (PVI D+3)
Incumbent: Jim Walsh (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: Dan Maffei
49. District 26 (PVI R+3)
Incumbent: Tom Reynolds
Democrat: Jon Powers, Alice Kryzan
50. District 29 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl
Democrat: Eric Massa
North Carolina
51. District 08 (PVI R+3)
Incumbent: Robin Hayes
Democrat: Larry Kissell
Ohio
52. District 01 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Steve Chabot
Democrat: Steve Dreihaus
53. District 02 (PVI R+13)
Incumbent: ‘Mean’ Jean Schmidt
Primary challenger: Tom Brinkman
Democrats: Victoria Wulsin, Stephen Black
54. District 07 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: Dave Hobson (retiring)
Republican: Steve Austria
Democrats: Steve Woolover, William Conner
55. District 14 (PVI R+2)
Incumbent: Steve LaTourette
Democrat: William O’Neill
56. District 15 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Deborah Pryce (retiring)
Republican: Steve Stivers
Democrat: Mary Jo Kilroy
57. District 16 (PVI R+4)
Incumbent: Ralph Regula (retiring)
Republican: Kirk Schuring
Democrat: John Boccieri
Pennsylvania
58. District 03 (PVI R+2)
Incumbent: Phil English
Democrats: Kathy Dahlkemper, Mike Waltner, Thomas Myers, Kyle Foust
59. District 05 (PVI R+10)
Incumbent: John Peterson (retiring)
Republican: ???
Democrat: ???
60. District 06 (PVI D+2)
Incumbent: Jim Gerlach
Democrat: Bob Raggio
61. District 18 (PVI R+2)
Incumbent: Tim Murphy
Democrats: Stephen O’Donnell, Beth Hafer
Texas
62. District 07 (PVI R+16)
Incumbent: John Culberson
Democrat: Michael Skelly
63. District 10 (PVI R+13)
Incumbent: Michael McCaul
Democrat: Larry Doherty, Daniel Grant
Virginia
64. District 05 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: Virgil Goode
Democrat: Tom Perriello
65. District 06 (PVI R+11)
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte
Democrat: Sam Rasoul
66. District 10 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Frank Wolf
Democrats: Judy Feder, Mike Turner
67. District 11 (PVI R+1)
Incumbent: Tom Davis (retiring)
Republican: Keith Fimian
Democrats: Leslie Byrne, Doug Denneny
68. District 12 (PVI R+6)
Incumbent: Thelma Drake
Democrat: Glenn Nye
Washington
69. District 08 (PVI D+2)
Incumbent: Dave Reichert
Democrat: Darcy Burner
West Virginia
70. District 02 (PVI R+5)
Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito
Democrat: Anne Barth
Wyoming
71. At Large (PVI R+19)
Incumbent: Barbara Cubin (retiring)
Democrat: Gary Trauner
MN-03 hands down. Good possibility of morning after syndrome in that race.
Ashwin Madia is a former republican who moved into the district in October to run for the open seat. He:
Terri Bonoff’s own labor record is pretty spotty. She also represents the most affluent legislative district in MN-03. Because of that she often forgets there are lots of blue collar workers and young families in the district.
While she is pro-choice, she’s shown some naiveté in that area. As a state senator, she was a sponsor of a fetal remains bill that was championed by a state representative who is one of Minnesota’s biggest anti-choice advocates. That state rep has a 100% rating from MCCL, the main anti-choice organization in the state.
The whole purpose of that bill was to begin going down that slippery slope of redefining conception and the status of the fetus.
Slim pickings in MN-03 for sure.
Madia is much better then you give him credit for.
He is moderate for sure but he is also much to the left of Bonoff. He got pissed about the war and woke up to what the Republicans were and left the party for good. He is decently progressive now and is not super-reactionary like Bonoff. Bonoff attacked him for wanting to end the war and BushCo’s tax breaks. I actually think Madia isn’t that bad.
I could be wrong though.
Well Madia does favor residual forces in Iraq of up to 25,000 after the pullout. And he says he’s progressive now in order to appeal to the base, but what about in the general? Will he run to the center or the center-right? And what about in Congress? We don’t know and he doesn’t have any track record outside of his college and law school activities (all conservative and anti-union) that might tell us where he might end up.
And I wouldn’t necessarily call Bonoff reactionary. I think the legislative district she represents colors her perception on certain issues. A lot of dems in her district actually benefited from the Bushco tax breaks. She has an interesting proposal to create another tax bracket above $250K or so. That way the two income families that net out in the Top 1% or so with a $250K – $300K income aren’t lumped in with the millionaires and billionaires. For her particular legislative district and for about 40% of the other legislative districts in MN-03 it makes sense.
Bonoff was also an early Obama supporter and is on Obama’s state steering committee. So that might give us a clue as to where her true sympathies lie.
However, MN-03 is a mixed bag, I don’t think there is a clear progressive choice in this race.
Well, here is Kay Barnes’ website.
Since this is Missouri, the chance of finding a true progressive that could actually win a major election is pretty small.
But I truly don’t know anything about her except that she’s a Democrat and was a successful two term mayor of Kansas City (she was term limited out). Over at ShowMeProgress they only seem to cover the race from an anti-Sam Graves perspective. Maybe A4L knows whether she’s progressive. (It’s always hard to tell with Mayors anyway.)
PA:
District 09 (PVI R+15)
Incumbent: Bill Shuster
Democrat: Tony Barr
Barr ran against Shuster in ’06 and is willing to have a go again. Coattails would be most welcome.
CA:
Russ Warner is a longtime activist with a good reputation. I’ve not met him, but people I respect have given him a big thumbs up.
Then search under images. The first picture is me and Russ!
nice!
Very cool, Fabooj!!
here’s Betsy Markey’s site.
she’s a protege of ken salazar:
and there’s still some lingering animosity towards her from the liberal/progressives as she was anointed by TPTB over angie paccione, who came very close to picking off musgrave in 06.
with obama leading the ticket and some serious dnc, etal support, she may have chance, especially since musgrave is worried the nrcc’s got no $ for her.
the “line” at coloradopols:
musgrave 3:2
markey 4:1
I’m disappointed that Angie isn’t running again – but it was her choice (or at least she said so fairly convincingly). It doesn’t sound like Markey is nearly as progressive š
as l uderstand what transpired, there was considerable pressure for angie to withdraw, led, in large part, by sen. salazar.
l was disappointed, even though it’s an adjoining district.
l suspect that, should she win, markey would be similar, but a bit to the right, of mark udall.
regardless, it would be a major improvement over the odious musgrave.
$$$ are going to be very important in this race, and the nat’l d‘s need to step up if they want to have a chance.
clearly you’re there and know more than I do. I just got the email Angie sent to contributors. As a good team player, she wouldn’t say she’d been pushed out, even if it was true.
and of course even a mostly-Democrat is better than Musgrave.
Supported Angie, even though this isn’t my district.
Anyone annointed by either of the Salazar brothers is suspect to me.
Anyone annointed by either of the Salazar brothers is suspect to me… TOO
NC-08… Larry Kissel
http://www.larrykissell.com/
Nearly came out of nowhere to beat Hayes in ’06, but lost by 340 votes. To be honest, I don’t know that he’s entirely progressive, but he’s as down to earth as they come. And, he’ll beat Hayes this year.
He was very nice and I think he must be pretty progress for the Atkins Bros. to through their support behind him.
I know very little about the north end of my state except northeast is red and northwest is blue. IN-3 is northeast and for reference, takes in Ft. Wayne. Incumbent ( since 1994, I think)Souder was quite a bit weaker in 2006 than in the past and seems ripe for a challenge. Mike Montagano is getting support from the local progressive blogs and is said to be doing well with fundraising. He’s young, a lawyer, a Phi Delta Phi, (for those who care about that sort of thing) and boy does he have a huge mouth full of teeth! There are already flirty comments about him from some of the local blog commenters. Nice campaign site, too.
28. District 03 (PVI R+16)
Incumbent: Mark Souder
Democrat: Mike Montagano
http://www.montaganoforcongress.com/
IN-4 is west and north of Indianapolis and is a little redder than Ft. Wayne. I don’t see near the promise with Ackerson, since he’s already gotten an Evan Bayh endorsement. Although I’d love to see Buyer out of there, I’m afraid that’s the kiss of bluebushdog death for me.
29. District 04 (PVI R+17)
Incumbent: Steve Buyer
Democrat: Nels Ackerson
http://www.nels4congress.com/
I’ve had an ongoing debate with others concerning the picking of Democratic candidates to run against Goode. They come from the most liberal city of the district. Have NO ties to the rest of the area, and often seen as “foreigners” by most of the voters. Yet the party leadership keeps punching them out with cookie cutters.
While I’m sure Mr.Perriello is a great guy, from what I understand, he has no ties to the courthouse machines necessary to unseat a long term Congressman, even one semi-tainted with scandal. Sitting here in the district, I see little that has changed locally from 2006 when the last out of touch Dem candidate tried and failed. Nationally there has a shift in the wind, but locally? Not really.
Unless there is a wide general sweep of Republicans out of office, or Obama campaigns in the Va/NC textile areas, which have all closed, and has Perriello right beside him the whole way……I have trouble seeing Goode being un-elected.
Which is a shame because Obama will need every Democratic Congressional vote he can get his hands on for the needed reforms.
I’m afraid BooMan, put this one in the “questionable” column.
Ridge
Well, your analysis doesn’t surprise me. Tom has raised a stunning amount of money, however, so he is going to give it a go and see what happens.
I agree the news says he is raising lots of money, but its out of state money, a fact not lost on Goode who is already saying he is in the pocket of New York/California liberals.
Two things caught my eye.-
He has raised 0 dollars in 1/3 of the district when this article was written.
There has been little other mention in this paper (for a city which is a Democratic stronghold in the district) since this article. In other words, his looks like it will be another “stealth” campaign like the last few against Goode.
Good luck Tom, you will need it, but you can’t win with a front porch campaign from Charlottesville.
Ridge
Ron Shepston is running Rep. Gary Miller’s seat in this area. I can’t believe you forgot this one after the overly dramatic rollout on DK.
I actually don’t know if he’s still running down there. My friends are resigned to another Gary Miller win. Primary day is June 8th and I have no idea if Sheptson is running unopposed of if Mark Hull-Richter is running again. Friends say that they aren’t even aware of any Democrats running down there, so take that’s for what it’s worth. I do have a couple of friends working on Miller’s not-so-campaign and they say that they’re not worried, expecting people to vote for Miller just because he’s there.
I didn’t forget him, he didn’t raise enough money to get me take him seriously.
Booman,
I don’t have the number-crunching skills or enough knowledge about methodology to attempt this, but I think it would be great if we could somehow take the amazing voter turnout numbers Obama is generating and project them onto the general election in November.
I think the big sleeper in this race is the amount of down-ticket races the Democrats might win if Obama is our nominee. Congressional seats, Governorships, state and municipal offices, etc…
I have a hunch that the rate of turnout among youth and minority voters is going to be even higher in the general election than what it’s been in the primaries, and that ought to translate into a tidal wave sort of election that sends the Republicans packing…
Booman already did this with some Senate seats.
Darcy Burner for Congress
She barely lost to Dave Reichert in 2006 and is ready for a rematch. This time she is outraising him by a substantial amount, and Reichert is not popular, nor is he seen as a particularly effective representative. He was passed over for a seat on the House Appropriations Committee, a seat he sought so he could brag about how much pork he was bringing to the Eastside exurbs. The seat went to someone whose re-election prospects were much better. Reichert of course wanted the seat because he thought it would give him a better chance of being re-elected. We here in the upper left-hand corner take this as a signal that the GOP will spend their increasingly scarce resources elsewhere and they aren’t going to put a lot of effort behind Reichert’s re-election.
Makes me wish I lived on the Eastside instead of just working there so I could vote for her instead of Jay Inslee. Nothing against Inslee, Darcy just needs my vote more.
.
BooMan: You’ve got mail!
I sent you the hyperlinks to candidates’ websites. Have fun.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Kentucky
District 02
Incumbent Ron Lewis, (retiring with an interesting twist)
Jan 29th 2008
Lewis withdraws from Congressional race
In perhaps the biggest surprise of the day Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecelia will not seek re-election, declining to run for another term in the 2nd district.
Daniel London, Lewis’s chief of staff filed minutes before the filing deadline, with his wife dropping off the papers.
[Talk about cutting and running at the last second]
Former candidate Daniel London (who Lewis tried to lock in as the republican candidate with his last second shenanigans) resigned from the ‘race” after Mitch McConnell let it be known he wasn’t happy, and he is the dictator of republic and politics in KY just ask Ernie Fletcher, or Chris Thieneman who tried to run for Anne Northups old seat in Louisville KY 3rd, but got stomped on by Mitch’s Kentucky republican mafia.
Hopefully we can dump Mitch and get democrats elected in KY 2nd and John Yarmuth re-elected in KY 3rd congressional district (after we gave Ernie the boot in 2007)
Republican: Brett Guthrie,
Democrat: David Boswell, Reid Haire,
Primary May 20th
Jerry Northington’s campaign website is here:
http://www.northington08.com/
Did he really raise five figures? He’s a veterinarian who plays the dulcimer and sports a pony tail! He blogs (at dKos, among others) under the name of “possum”.
http://www.northington08.com/about/
He comes out squarely against “Bush’s illegal, immoral, and costly war”, with service in Vietnam to boot.
yup.
Re FL 13th: Christine Jennings is a candidate for the Lieberman Hall. There are some real Democrats in that district, and it’s my hope that this Katherine Harris crony will admit the truth and return to her home party. I think she’s just in it because the local democrats were starting to build some success and getting too scary for the PTB.
Sarasota is a prime example of the seizure of government by the wealthy. I believe that Jennings got her position the same way GW did. Just because a banker can raise money doesn’t mean she belongs in Congress.
They sure know how to handle ballots in that town. That is one congressional race you should avoid, especially if Jennings is on the ballot.
NM-01:
Martin Heinrich, Progressive Environmentalist
http://www.martinheinrich.com/
NM-02:
The grassroots common sense progressive:
http://www.billmccamley.com/
The oil biz guy:
http://www.harryteagueforcongress08.com/
NM-03:
Green building Don Wiviott:
http://donfornewmexico.com/
Public Regulation Commission Member and son of NM legislator:
http://www.benrlujan.com/