We’ve reached the end game:
“A friend of mine told me how the Marines train people in hand-to-hand combat,” says retired Über-consultant Bob Shrum. “If your opponent has a weapon and you don’t, you pick up an ashtray, a lamp, a chair, anything you can, and keep throwing stuff. It seems to me that’s what the Clinton campaign is doing.”
Hillary Clinton is not going to win in Texas:
SurveyUSA 2/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (2/19 results)
Obama 49 (45)
Clinton 45 (50)Obama 50 (48)
Clinton 46 (50)Obama 50 (48)
Clinton 42 (42)
Chris Bowers assesses the options.
Will Ohio and Rhode Island be enough for Clinton to keep going? There actually is no precedent for a candidate with over 1,000 delegates dropping out before the convention, so I would not be so sure. As long as she leads in Pennsylvania polls and any delegate count, if I was on her campaign staff I would advise her to keep going.
If I were on her campaign staff I would not advise her to keep going, and I would not advise her to ‘pick up an ashtray, a lamp, a chair, anything [she] can, and keep throwing stuff.’ I’d tell her to stop all negative campaigning right now.
On one level this is kind of obvious. Barack Obama is probably going to be the next president of the United States. Hillary Clinton represents the people of New York. It’s pretty much her duty to the people of the Empire State at this point to stop alienating the next president. If she hits him with too many more chairs and ashtrays, she may discover that her phone calls to the White House go unreturned.
There’s one other scenario that Clinton might be thinking about. If Obama loses the general election, Hillary might be in a good position to run in 2012. But she’ll be in the worst possible position to run in 2012 if she gets blamed for undermining Obama’s chances. She should think back to Gore’s concession speech in 2000. Gore did more to preserve his popularity in the Democratic Party in that speech than in anything he did during the campaign. He showed humility and class, and he put his country over his personal ambition and even the short-term interests of his party.
I have to say, in all candor, that the Clintons have already self-imposed a lot of damage to their reputations. Most of it could be forgiven with a really graceful exit, but the window on a graceful exit is rapidly closing. Clinton’s sarcastic and mocking tone in Rhode Island and her campaign’s inability to condemn yesterday’s Somali Garb dustup and promise to sack the responsible staffers…let’s just say that this is not laying the right groundwork for a classy bow-out.
I tend to think about campaigns more than individual candidates, and thinking about that aspect of the race is instructive, as well. As the junior senator from New York, her ability to pass out patronage to her supporters is pretty limited. What is to become of her economic, health, labor, environmental, and foreign policy advisers? What is to become of her political consultants and operatives? If she cares about them at all, she should consider how her action might adversely affect their future influence and careers. If Obama doesn’t trust her people, he’ll probably look elsewhere to staff the federal government. If she pushes too hard and too long she risks putting her own ambition over the interests of the people that believed in and supported her.
Cynics will say that the answer is: Are you kidding? Among many in the Democratic Party, the rap on the Clintons has always been that they’re self-regarding, self-centered, infinitely narcissistic. That they see the party as a vehicle for their ambitions, nothing more and nothing less. That their preeminent cause is their own power. How Hillary conducts herself in the days ahead will speak volumes about whether that is actually true of her.
If I were advising her, I’d tell her that her future and her legacy depend on undermining that ‘rap’. She’s pushed this far, so she should probably continue campaigning through March 4th. But she should stop undermining the strengths and rationale of the Obama campaign. And when the returns come in in Texas, she should be ready with the most gracious and congratulatory concession speech that her speechwriters can dream up.
Ironically, the worst thing that could happen for her is to win the March 4th primaries, soldier on to the convention, and then lose anyway (which she inevitably would). If she does that, her name will be mud not only in this generation, but for many generations to come.
I don’t know if she can be satisfied with a career in the Senate, but she should look for guidance to Edward Kennedy, who has endured much more personal grief and professional disappointment, and yet persevered through it all to become one of America’s most legendary public servants. Hillary Clinton can do a lot worse. And, at this point, she’s unlikely to do better.
Also available in orange.
I believe it now that SurveyUSA says it.
Could he post a picture of Hillary in bitch outfit?
You may think this is clever or funny, but we don’t need to sink to that level to win our arguments. Cease and desist, please.
thanks. I was going to say the same thing, but didn’t want to get tagged as a kos-style purity troll.
But yeah, knock it off. I come here to get AWAY from mudslinging.
As did I. I try to be as polite as I can so that I don’t come off as arrogant or strident. Sometimes people just don’t know the lay of the land on a particular site.
thanks for proper policing. We don’t need that kind of crap in the comments here.
Legacy, schmegacy. Being Senator was a steppingstone. I wouldn’t be that surprised if she decided not to run–for reelection to the Senate–in 2012.
between wanting her to stay in and drop out. As long as she stays in they’re competing for the base, and that means committing to more progressive positions than they otherwise would be inclined to do. As soon as she drops out we’re into GE mode and a lurch for the Republican-dominated center.
What would be best, but obviously too much to ask, would be for them to keep on competing right up to the convention but in a way that’s non-destructive to the prospects of the eventual winner. It would keep media interest on the Democrats instead of leaving them free to fawn over McCain, and would help change the agenda for the country. I’d much rather have Hillary and Obama going at one another about who’s most opposed to NAFTA than seeing either one of them trying to out-warmonger McCain, which I’m afraid is how that part of the campaign will go.
We can only hope that the Clintons leave the playfield graciously without giving the Republicans all the fodder they need for their dirty-tricks to come.
The Clintons are bitter, especially Bill, who I think may see the primary results as a rejection of his own presidency.
And that is a textbook illustration of narcissism.
more a rejection of running for a third term. Can’t get out of my head that WSJ artist’s sketch of Bill and Hill unpacking on their retaking the White House. Bill’s head is twice the size of his body.
Ambinder, on the ground, mirrors BooMan’s analysis: Pondering Clinton’s Place
Clinton may not have a choice as polls are not in her favor. Mutiny may be a foot on March 05
Related
My read of Mike Halperin TIME tells me Ohio may surprise. Never mind the polls there, It’s all about ground organization – Obama’s advantage
Never.
I know she can do it – show some grace.
I often think of the USA as a large human being. We have survived our infantile and adolescent phases and are now entering our responsible adulthood. This is evidenced by our increased participation in civic life.
The Rude One has got it just right
Mom knows we’re gonna dance no matter what.
Instead of passing around pictures of Obama wearing the tribal robes of a Somali elder, and other such nonsense to provide the Republicans more ammunition on the visceral level, her campaign ought to be taking on the Republicans to further weaken and divide them! (Yes, I’d kick a downed enemy, especially if they’d treated my country as shamefully as they have… since the guys from Watergate and Iran-Contra raised their slimy tentacles once again, I’d make sure to cut them all off permanently and not rest until every last tentacle and sucker was severed from government!!!)
It isn’t as though the conservatives are pure and strong, so why is Clinton afraid to say that McCain is a drunken serial adulterer who lost at least 5 airplanes (compared to true aces who shoot down enemy planes!)? The Republicans weren’t afraid to attack Kerry’s military service and he was a hero compared to their drugged-out awol frat-boy! The Republicans are going to run on family values (show how he treated his first wife), fiscal conservatism (show how he is breaking the campaign finance laws and the lobbyist laws that he wrote), and duty (show all those missed votes). It will make her look stronger and it will make a Democratic victory easier next fall. If she can’t look better than the Republicans, she better not be our nominee!!!
Yeah, I know the Senate is an old farts club where everybody is congenial to their fellows, but running the government is a job, not an inherited privilege, and somebody back in Washington ought to remember that.
Has she attacked any Republican candidate on issues or emotional points? Why not! Has she found a tape of McCain screaming obscenities at his fellow Senators? Why not! Has she passed out fliers showing how Romney’s successful business practice involved buying troubled companies and cutting payroll, putting Americans out of work? Why not! Has she talked about Huckabee’s drive to replace the Constitution with the 10 Commandments and turn this nation into a medieval theocracy? Why not! Has she shown pictures of Giuliani in drag while talking about malfunctioning telephones and firehydrants and other infrastructure failures in times of crisis? Why not! Has she stood up to Bush and Cheney on their unitary executive theory? Why not!
In mythology, there are miserable creatures who foul their own nests. Hillary is such a harpy, unable to fly because of too much carrion baggage, yet bitterly envious of eagles. The dirtier she fights, the more it clings to her.
My advice to Obama is to not let the Clintons or any member of their entourage anywhere near his government, not even as ambassadors or commission-members. Should Clinton strong-arm the superdelegates into the nomination, I’d advise Obama to avoid her team and thus avoid the stench and taint and filth of association. The Clinton legacy is fast churning into muck.
I think it’s hard to do that when your top campaign adviser is in business with McCains’ top adviser. It does, however, make it much easier for you and Mr. McCain to coordinate the messaging so that attacks on Obama’s campaign are consistent, regardless of whether it is an R or D making them.
And to think that some in the pro-Hillary camp are worried about the possibility that Rs may have voted for Obama in states with open primaries…it boggles the mind.
The end of primary season can’t come soon enough for me.
For me, that is all I need to hear. While I believe Bill did a C+ job in the Presidency, he does not get a do-over.
His defective, nacissistic personality destroyed his presidency.
Hillary cannot put a high wall between her administration and Bill. He would be there, mucking stuff up.
So, unfortunately for her and fortunately for her, she is married to Bill. That’s the reason she is where she is, and the reason she goes no higher.
.
CLEVELAND (TIME) Feb. 25, 2008 – While the blue-collar Buckeye state has been viewed as part of Clinton’s firewall strategy for stopping Obama’s momentum, the truth is that even though she is still leading in polls, her campaign is playing catchup when it comes to the all-important job of grassroots organizing. “I’m 52, I’ve been around for a while, and [Obama’s] is the most spontaneous, energetic political operation that I’ve ever seen,” said Keith Wilkowski, a lawyer and former Democratic Party chair in Toledo.
That level of energy was apparent at a Monday rally of several thousand people in Cincinnati. Obama opened his remarks by telling the crowd that early voting is already underway in Ohio and urged them to go vote immediately after the rally ended. He even told them the location where they could go cast their ballots. It was candidate-as-precinct-captain, and it showed both the intensity of the fight for votes going on daily as well as the benefits of having a candidate who used to be a community organizer and has run a voter registration drive.
Dodd for Obama
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Well, Diebold has accidentally released the November election results, so none of this matters anyway. Hint: Hillary doesn’t win.
Diebold Accidentally Leaks Results Of 2008 Election Early
You can bet the house on that!
Clinton is the new Nader.
A hearty Amen BooMan.
At this point Hillary has done much damage, has refused sage advice-throwing the furniture. Bowing out gracefully after revealing to the media her 5 point attack-a playbook that the GOP will use during the summer-means she’s in it for the long haul even if the destroys the Party.
Gimme a tickle for tonight.
We’ll see which one of the Hillary personalities appear in tonight’s debate. The soft tone Hillary that ended last week’s debate with that “concession” speech or the mocking Hillary?
The debate tonight should reveal, in real time, Hillary’s dual personalities – leaving strong doubts in the mind of voters b/c she just can’t, in the space of 7 days, switch from Mrs Nice to Mrs Bitch to Mrs Nice. I’m just saying.
Anyhow, senior advisers are not waiting to go down with the ship. They are job hunting for after March 5th. Read she’s losing staff even as she soldiers on.
I predict she’ll reveal multiple personalities, depending on the question.
recall when Obama said he was not sure which of the Clintons was his opponent?
Bill Clinton slips while stumping for Hillary or did he?
ABCNews confirms.
View Video: If You Elect Me I’ll repeal those subsidies and put them into a strategic energy fund that will create American jobs for America’s future with clean energy.”
So he is running for a third term!
Might I add that Kennedy has also risen above the worst in his character and personality. And the worst was worse than anything we know about the Clintons.
Shucks, Big Tent appears to have erased my comments over there. Criticizing supporters of the two candidates is now forbidden. That means you can’t comment on how the H. Clinton supporters have missed the shifting demographic support away from her to Obama. But you can still call Obama supporters “Obamabots.”
Those people have become so self-referential that I hope that someone will be brave enough to go into the bunker and let them know when the war is over.
I hate to see you drive yourself crazy over them.
You should think of it differently. It’s late in the day on election day and the end is coming. And we’re all at the candidate party of our choice.
Now, why go to the other candidate’s party and expect to find anything but true believers for that candidate?
Why go to the other candidate’s party and talk up your candidate and expect anything but negativity toward you for doing that?
And why berate the people at the other candidate party for being a bit delusional? All candidate supporters are delusional, especially if the race is somewhat close. They’ve supported their candidate and worked for their candidate and given money to their candidate. They’re entitled to hope, even irrationally, that their candidate will pull it out at the last minute. Even when the supporters see the writing on the wall, the party goes on until it’s officially over. And it’s not officially over until the candidate concedes.
Your mistake is in thinking that TalkLeft is still a blog. In January Jeralyn turned it into a candidate party for Hillary. Don’t fight reality. Just wait it out. Eventually the day-after will come. The tables will be put away, the balloons will be popped, the empty beer cups will be swept away.
And it can go back to being a blog.
True. Unfortunate, but true. I’ve read and posted over there for years
I didn’t come into the campaign supporting Obama and am old enough to know that every politician is going to disappoint you along the line. Having said that, I have found the Clinton campaign to have been run terribly, and her core supporter seem to go out of their way to insult and alienate other Dems while slipping farther and farther away from reality. Posting something that’s against their grain is enough to be censored. Sad.
I’m exactly the same.
Truthfully, though, almost all on-line candidate supporters annoy me. No matter who their candidate is. And no matter whether they suffer from “road rage” syndrome (insulting and alienating people who don’t agree with them completely) OR suffer from “literature drop” syndrome (every persons’s comment is a chance for them to make a cheery responsive comment with their candidate’s talking point).
I want a blog where people can analyze the good and the bad in every campaign. Because every viable campaign has good and bad points and no candidate is perfect. I prefer to do my candidate supporting in real life, not on blogs.
When I read Mark Ambinder’s assessment this morning of Hillary Clinton and the decision that is probably facing her, I found myself agreeing:
If she wins Ohio and decides to stay in until Pennsylvania, I don’t have a problem with that as long as she isn’t throwing a kitchen sink full of mud at Obama. If she talks issues (even if talking issues means arguing about political mailers) I’m OK if she stays in. I doubt she will, though, if she loses Texas.
Washington herd mindset being what it is I’m curious as the season rolls forward how the Hillary sidekicks who are running for office may be rethinking their own platforms and attitudes. When will we see them begin to adjust their profiles away from what has cost her the race?