(Crossposted at My Left Wing.)
In a poll conducted of Pennsylvania Dem voters by Franklin & Marshall University, 1/5 of both the Clinton and Obama voters said that if their candidate did not receive the Dem nomination they would vote for McCain. And another combined average of 8% said that they would not vote at all.
Q.- If [FILL preferred candidate] does not win the Democratic nomination, who do you think you will vote for in the November election? Will you vote for [fill other candidate], John McCain, some other candidate, or will you probably not vote in the November election?
Hillary Clinton supporters (n = 228) 5
3% Barack Obama
19% John McCain
5% Other
13% Won’t vote
10% Don’t knowBarack Obama supporters (n = 126)
60% Hillary Clinton
20% John McCain 3
% Other
3% Won’t vote
14% Don’t know
Hmmmm…
If I were a Dem PermaGov hustler, I would be thinking REALLY hard about that little poll.
Particularly about the potential results of such a movement.
Add 20% of the voters who would normally vote Dem in working class, rust belt states like PA to McCain’s tally and simultaneously subtract 28% (the 20% who voted for McCain plus the 8% that stayed home) from the Dem vote?
In say all of the northern states that border the Great Lakes, just for STARTERS?
UH OH!!!
Just sayin’…
Now…if you add in the point that I made in my first little “Why A Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton Ticket? HERE’S Why.” tome, that each one of the Dems now in contention come out in a statistical tie w/McCain and that their constituencies are quite different…
Poll: McCain, Obama, Clinton in dead heat in election matchup
By Alexander Mooney
CNN Washington Bureau(CNN) — Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would both statistically tie Republican John McCain in a general election matchup, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicates.
According to the poll released Tuesday morning, both Obama and Clinton are locked in a dead heat with the Arizona senator.
If Obama were to win the nomination, he would get 47 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for McCain — a statistical tie given the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error. Should Clinton win the nomination, the poll suggests she would get 49 percent compared to McCain’s 47 percent — another statistical tie.
While Clinton and Obama match up equally with McCain, CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes the two Democrats appear to be drawing support from different groups of voters.
“Clinton appears to do a little bit better than Obama among older voters, women, and self-identified Democrats against McCain; Obama’s numbers may be slightly better among younger voters and those who describe themselves as Republicans and Independents,” Holland said.
…and you’ve got yourself a serious electoral quandary going on.
Just sayin’…
Them big wheels are ‘a turnin’ in the PermaDem’s skulls as well. Bet on it.
And pressure IS going to be brought to bear on both Clinton and Obama by those powers, bet on that as well.
They cannot afford to allow the party to once again snatch defeat right out of the jaws of certain victory.
We won’t hear about the pressure any more than we hear the tectonic plates moving under the earth.
But we WILL see the results.
My guess as to when?
About 5 days after these two nearly tie in PA. Or Clinton actually wins outright there. Maybe a little longer. The Wright thing…masterful oratory notwithstanding…has injured Obama. And don’t forget…most working class voters actually DISTRUST the kind of intelligence that is Obama’s public stock and trade. Why was Bill Clinton so successful with the white working class? Because he had a world class dumb act. Obama lacks that strength. That’s why he is so popular with so many of the middle class leftiness Shmoons. (Sorry, folks…I like him too, but there it is.)
But my dear fellow!!! He’s so…COLLEGIATE!!!
Just sayin’…
Watch.
What do you do when you have painted yourself into a corner?
What to do, what to do…???
Cheat, of course.
Watch.
AG
Cries of “UNFAIR!!! NOT CRICKET!!!”
Feel free.
I do.
I’m just the messenger.
AG
You’re so right about that “world-class dumb act.” It works, but It’s Hard Work!
Do you think the democrats can top McCain’s already awesome dumb act with a woman and a black man who don’t play dumb?
I hope so – it’s time. Class will tell.
I think you under-estimate the anger at and disgust with Clinton in my neck of the woods – if Clinton’s on the ticket at all a large segment of Blacks will stay home or actually vote Republican. They may win the election without us but the long-term damage to the party would be significant.
Suicidal.
I doubt it.
Stay home?
Maybe.
Vote for The Grey Avenger?
Please.
AG
I don’t know how big of a segment of the Black vote would actually switch, but many of the people who I talk to are adamant in their opposition to the Clintons and regular in their voting. It’s conceivable that they could just leave the presidential line empty, but it’s more likely that they’ll pull it for McCain if Hillary is on Obama’s ticket.
Believe it.
What your analysis doesn’t say is why either Obama or Hilary would agree to the VP slot on the ticket – even if they felt they would win. Historically, being a VP isn’t necessarily a good spring board for a shot at the Presidency itself – you get all of the flack for the failures of your President, and none of the kudos.
Every time the Presidential election comes around you see outsiders do well, people who promise change and who deny (often against the evidence) being insiders to the Washington scene. Being VP doesn’t give you that power of denial. Gore was tainted with the Clinton Brush even though he (literally) had no hand act or part in the latter’s most famous indiscretions.
In addition, as many commentators have pointed out, the Dem party is now extremely polarised between Obama and Clinton, and there is little sign of any reconciliation at grass roots level. Having your preferred candidate on the ticket at no. 2 isn’t necessarily going to change that – people rarely vote based on who is no. 2 on the ticket.
Having said all that, both Obama and Clinton have to demonstrate that they can unite the country if they are to win, and if they can’t unite their own party any claims to be able to unite the country will lack credibility. I’m sure both would like the other as their number 2 – whatever their supporters might say – because that would be the most effective way of demonstrating that they can bring a wide range of demographics together under the banner of their candidacy. The DEM split has to be healed if they are to defeat McCain.
But the key question remains: Why would either Clinton or Obama agree to be no. 2 and perhaps destroy their own chances of ever becoming President? Hillary is getting to be too old to aspire to succeed Obama, and can Obama wait that long?
Why accept?
Deals will be made.
So will promises.
Witrh possible consequences if those promises are not kept.
Tyhe hustle is ON, Frank.
Bet on it.
The only other scenario that I see? Besides disasters of which I do not even want to think or speak?
Other promises…and/or threats of one kind or another (Remember the Corleone “Make him an offer he can’t refuse” concept,? Yeah. Like that.)… will be made and one of them will endorse the other.
AG