In House campaigns, money isn’t everything. But you can get a pretty good sense for whether a race is competitive by looking at the fundraising numbers of the candidates. If a candidate raised six figures in the first quarter you can be sure that people think they have a real chance. If a candidate is raising more money than the incumbent, or has more money, those are also clear signals. By that measure, the Democrats are really applying an incredible amount of pressure on the Republicans. If you look at just the races that fit that profile in Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Florida it adds up to 19 seats. The Republicans are at risk for an historic beatdown of 1932 proportions. The last time I did an analysis I think I came up with about 70 competitive seats, but just a cursory glance at the new fundraising numbers shows me that there another 8-10 that were not previously on my radar. Add to that, that the Dems seem within reach of winning special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana, and watch out!!
Somehow I just don’t think McCain’s addled economic policy and strident saber-rattling is going to save the GOP from its much deserved fate.
We’ll see. If this all comes down, the interesting part will be seeing how the Republicans go about rebuilding.
your mouth to gods’ ear!
one other point. I am lighting candles in the hope that the Dems gain at least a majority of 53 seats. Then, I want to see them PUBLICALLY STRIP THAT FUCKING PIECE OF CONNECTICUT SHIT OF EVERY SINGLE POSITION IN THE PARTY!
over in the Senate we are almost assured of winning at least Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. That would put us at 53, not counting Lieberman.
as fading into the woodwork and some other party name coming to the fore. It might be a latter day Teddy Roosevelt that calls it to be something totally different (at least in name!) But after Nixon, after Bushco I really don’t think a lot of people will want to do business with them. But then I thought that Nixon had completely done that to the repubs too. So what do I know. I do know they will wander in the wilderness for a time until they get a new Newt! McCain ain’t it!
If you remember 1992, the Dems got their clocks cleaned. The House MAJORITY LEADER lost his seat (and that has happened in American history 1 time, I believe). We lost 80 seats or so.
But we’re back.
The Repubs will be battered, and I hope that the beating is severe. But it won’t kill them, unfortunately.