In the 2004 exit polls for Pennsylvania, Kerry won 84% of the black vote and blacks made up 14% of the electorate. Obviously, blacks make up a higher percentage of the electorate in Democratic primary where Republicans and Independents cannot vote than in a general election. So, why did all the pollsters estimate today’s black vote to be between 13%-18%?
The surveys show more variation on some characteristics than others. Most, for example, show the percentage of women as somewhere between 55% and 58%, and most show the African-American percentage as somewhere in the mid-teens. Of course, with Barack obama expected to receive 80% to 90% of the black vote, the difference between an African American composition of 13% and 18% can alter Obama’s vote total by 3 to 4 points.
The early exit polls are actually showing Obama winning 92% of the black vote. Both that number and the likelihood that high black turnout will lead to a larger percentage of the overall electorate than 19% lead me to believe that the polls underestimated Obama’s support significantly.
As far as I can tell, the contest is a dead heat. There are some leaked exit polls numbers showing both candidates ahead, but they both agree that the race is in the 4-6 point range. Exit polls are not reliable, especially this early in the day. The older voters have all voted, while working people are stuck in traffic. I don’t know who will win, but I am guessing it will be very close.
If Obama dominated the African-American vote to that degree – and the AA vote breaks 20% – he has a real shot of winning.
Big ifs, though, I fear. I’d love to think he could pull it out, but I don’t see it. But maybe the real exit polls will change my mind once the polls close.
exactly.
How high a percentage of the primary electorate do blacks usually make up? Or is that really impossible to say, relative to this evening, because of Penn not usually mattering?
My opinion, given from halfway across the country, offered for free and worth exactly what you paid for it:
The old rules increasingly don’t apply anymore. The old observations aren’t necessarily going to be indicative of how things are going to go.
point well made – exit polls are unreliable until voting ends.
this is an unusual high turn-out and who’s managing the count?
comes to mind 2004 – Kerry. 2008 – Ohio in a certain county where Obama should have done extremely well.
but that said we’re having fun killing time ’til 9:00 PM
Oh, I quite agree. Especially with Obama’s organizing capabilities, the old rules are shit. I’m just trying to figure the reasonable parameters.
I don’t have exit polls for any primaries.
So, all I can do is look at 2004 and they showed 14% for the general election.
What percentage of Kerry voters were black? Do the math. 84% of black voters voted for Kerry and they made up 14% of the electorate. Kerry had 2,938,095 votes. Bush had 2,793,847 votes. Combined votes: 5,731,942.
My rough estimate is that Kerry got about 866,000 black voters, or 33% of his total. Is my math off? It often is.
I get 23% of Kerry’s total, or about 670,000 votes?
14% of voters today were black, so the polls had it about right, towards the low end.
Obama by 2
a win here after being 20+ pts down would be BIG
coul be that’s why Obama lowered expectations – then a win would be an upset, no matter how it’s sliced and diced.
I’ll be crushed if Clinton ends with a 10-pt margin.
I agree. I think PPP is going to be right. SUSA is good but not great.
I’ll take the nail-biter. I’ll be crushed if it’s a 10-point spread.
If Obama comes close, expect to hear Ed, Geraldine, Bob Johnson offer up the race card, it’s because of who he is and (sob, sob,) “we’re out spent.”
How about out-campaigned with those DVDs! WOW.
And those undecided super-Ds should ask themselves
Why does Scaife, Rush, Novak, Rove, Clouter and Pat Buchanan want to have the Clintons back?
Am hearing about Machine problems. Any info?
Voting at my Montco poll has gone at a brisk clip all day, with lots of new voters, lots of Democratic voters (more than usual!), and when I left for a quick dinner break, there was a line snaking around the voting room and beginning to form out the door! This is VERY unusual for us; a Republican committeewoman called it a “historic event”!
I’ve also had people approaching me (as a Dem municipal chair and committeewoman) to get more involved. Also new and notable!
I can’t help thinking this all will be good for Obama, and I’m thinking this vote could be VERY close.
It will also be great for the down ticket candidates in November!!!
Yeah, I’ll remain a skeptic because I don’t think the MSM exit polls the rural areas very well. Those early exit polls would conform to Al Giordano’s prediction, but all they do for me is make me think at least the odds are good now that it’ll be a single digit victory for Clinton, so despite the post election spin, Obama continues to be the Democratic nominee, just like I said he was after Wisconsin.
Nice work you’re doing on all this, BooMan… thanks for the added effort!
Philly.com reporting calls for extended voting hours due to broken machines, request for paper ballots. Judge rejects
Why does everybody keep freakin’ saying that Clinton won Texas? OBAMA WON TEXAS! GET IT STRAIGHT!!
Montco’s Area 4 (Collegeville, Limerick, Lower Providence, Royersford, Skippack, Trappe, Upper Providence, West Norriton and Worcester) totals: Hillary 55 percent, Barack 44 percent.
Obama won Collegeville (home of Ursinus College Dems).
In case anyone wants to know…