Odds & Ends

3 Comments

1. 

   dada on May 28, 2008 at 1:52 pm

   here’s an informative bit of political speculation:

   John McCain’s Arab-American problem

   Arab-Americans are concentrated in swing states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. And the early signs are not good for McCain.

   Arab-Americans are both very likely to vote — their turnout is 20 percent higher than that of the general population — and they are concentrated. Two-thirds of them live in just 10 states, including the swing states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, Arab-Americans have made up 2 percent of the electorate in recent elections. That sounds like a small proportion, but in a close race it can make a difference. In 2000, Bush won the Arab-American vote over Gore by 7.5 percentage points. Bush took Ohio that year by only 165,000 votes. He and Gore virtually tied in Florida in the popular vote.

   The Arab-American presence is most significant in Michigan. An estimated 300,000 Arab-Americans reside in the southeastern portion of the state. More than a third of Michigan’s Arab-Americans have Lebanese ancestry; most of that population is Shiite. Another third of the state’s Arab-Americans are Iraqi, and many of those residents are Christian.

   In other words, up to 5 percent of Michigan’s vote is Arab-American. The Democratic candidate has won the state in each of the last two presidential elections by no more than 200,000 votes. Recent polling suggests that in a head-to-head contest between John McCain and Barack Obama, the two would split the state down the middle. Many analysts believe that the Democrats cannot win in November without winning Michigan…

   juan cole at salon

   throws a big bucket of ice water on clinton’s claim to be the “more electable” candidate, eh.

   • 

     BooMan on May 28, 2008 at 2:06 pm

     Check out Bush Dog Boswell’s mailers.

     • 

       dada on May 28, 2008 at 2:14 pm

       seems the k. rove electioneering manual© has become the strategy reference of choice among the dlc’ers…<cough>clinton<cough>…but the /bush dogs as well.

       hope this bites him in the ass…hard.