It’s hard for me to think like a Republican, but I try. One thing you can see from the huge surge in Democratic registration all across the country is that the Democrats will now win any election that matches up their base against the Republican base. The strategy that worked for the GOP in 2004 is no longer viable. It isn’t an option for John McCain. And McCain seems to understand this:

IN A WIDE-RANGING INTERVIEW aboard his campaign plane this morning, John McCain said that he is open to choosing a pro-choice running mate and named former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge as someone who merits serious consideration despite his support for abortion rights. McCain also criticized Barack Obama’s presidential campaign for attempts to “politicize” the debate over Georgia and criticized President Bush for failing to recognize the true nature of Vladimir Putin.

“I think that the pro-life position is one of the important aspects or fundamentals of the Republican Party,” McCain said. “And I also feel that–and I’m not trying to equivocate here–that Americans want us to work together. You know, Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don’t think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out.”

If you’re upset about FISA or some other blasphemy out of the Obama Camp, imagine how diehard Republicans feel reading something like that? As Karl Rove notes in this morning’s Wall Street Journal, McCain needs to win Michigan and Ohio or he’s toast. I can’t think of a state in the country where the Democratic Party is in more disarray than in Michigan. We had the disputed primary. The Dems couldn’t field decent congressional candidates in at least four potentially competitive races. And the Detroit Mayor was just indicted. If McCain is going to breakthrough in any major Gore/Kerry state, Michigan is the place to make it happen. But, as discombobulated at the Michigan Democrats are, there is no way that McCain can win a base election there. With an African-American at the top of the ticket, the turnout in Detroit is going to be historic. McCain can only win by tacking to the center and winning over the Reagan Democrats in the Detroit suburbs. Racializing the contest (unfortunately) will bear much more fruit than culturizing it. Picking Tom Ridge as his running mate makes a whole lot more sense than picking a social conservative…especially a Southern one.

McCain would be more competitive in this race if he had not allowed himself to get tied so closely to George W. Bush. His old reputation as a maverick is pretty much up in smoke. But one way to restore it is to make a pick that pisses off what’s left of his base. There is a degree of desperation in this analysis, but looking at the state-by-state polls, McCain should be feeling desperate. He is not competitive in many Kerry states and he is playing defense from Virginia to North Carolina to Florida to Iowa to Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, and Alaska. McCain needs a game changer that will appeal to moderates in New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. If he can’t force Obama into defense in any of those states, he’s going to lose…possibly quite badly.

When you look at the list of pressing challenges facing the country, abortion rights, gay marriage, and school prayer are way down the list right now. McCain would be a fool to pander to the people that still make their political decisions based on those issues. If I were McCain, I’d pick Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine. No one can say anything bad about her other than she is a Republican, and she would signal that the Republican Party no longer is the exclusive province of white-male protestant southerners. But, Tom Ridge would be a good pick, too.

I would fear those picks. Romney or Pawlenty or Huckabee or Jindal? They aren’t going to change the underlying dynamics of the race.