That whole theory that polls are skewed Republican because they don’t poll enough cell phone-only voters? It appears that there is something to that. On the other hand, Republican efforts to disenfranchise voters probably eat up most of the difference.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
Balance that with what some say are about 6% bias in the polls not showing people who say they will vote for Obama but will not because of race
actually, there is a different, more accurate weight to account for the so-called Bradley Effect.
People that won’t vote for Obama because of his race (and who would vote for a white Democrat) are much more apt to say that they are undecided than to say that they will vote for him. They aren’t eager to endorse McCain or Obama and wish they had another choice.
For that reason, it is safe to assume that as many as 70% of undecided voters will ultimately vote for McCain.
Most polls are showing a very small set of undecideds, and many of them will vote third-party, thereby denying McCain a full two-point advantage.
Six points is way too high as an estimate.
Got that from NPR “Here and Now” interview today.
Pollsters differ in how hard they push the undecideds, but the RCP Polling Average is currently:
Obama 47.8
McCain 44.1
That leaves 8.1% of the electorate undecided/third party.
Assuming all third-party candidates combined only get about 1% of the vote (the result from 2004), then that leaves 7.1% of true undecideds. Assuming that they break 70% for McCain, he’ll get 4.9% to Obama’s 2.2%.
That’s a 2.7% break for McCain. But how many of those 2.7% are truly voting for McCain solely because they can’t vote for a half-black man?
You can begin to see where 6% is a totally unrealistic number. After all, anyone that is reporting an intention to vote McCain is already factored in.
You know I still think the Bradley Effect has already been factored in. People can choose a host of other lies to justify not voting for Obama and still not be overt racists, so they’re not going to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for Obama when they aren’t, especially given the hyper-partisan nature of the campaign.
Yes, much of the criticism of Obama indicates the presence of Modern/& Symbolic Racism. Overt racism is rare nowadays but the attitude merely submerged itself under other, seemingly appropriate attitudes such as the work ethic, etc. Whereas it would be inappropriate for one to say “blacks are lazy,” the same underlying attitude can be uncovered through an alternative question such as, say, “are some people relying on the government because they’re lazy?”
http://science.jrank.org/pages/10839/Prejudice-Varieties-Prejudice.html
Rick Perlstein writes in an article, The Unspoken Truth About the GOP: Southern Discomfort, about a book by Thomas Schaller, Whistling Past Dixie, which in turn cites “Old Times There Are Not Forgotten: Race and Partisan Realignment in the Contemporary South,” by Nicholas Valentino and David Sears.
The gist of my point is that racial attitudes are already part of what we’ve been seeing. People, in some cases, are not aware of the racist roots of their political beliefs. In other cases they are. For instance, attacks on Obama’s “experience” are often efforts to tap into these Modern Racist attitudes.
As Lee Atwater said:
— Wikipedia entry on Southern Strategy
Republicans don’t use cell phones at the same rate as Democrats? I find that difficult to fathom.
It’s the age differential.
OK, but according to the poll results, the difference is not statistically significant.
I’ve got four kids who are now old enough to vote and all of us have cell phones and no land line.
Added to the differences in cell phone usage is poor ability to predict turnout for newly registered voters. It’s easier to predict how people will vote rather than whether they will vote. And turnout has been at record levels throughout this campaign.
FLASH: McCain wants to postpone Friday’s debate to “focus on the economic crisis”….
You’ve got to be effing kidding.
Why doesn’t he just give and go home now.? He picked the delicate flower Sarah for a running mate, and she can’t be allowed out on her own or to speak to the press for herself, and now McCain has decided cramming for this week’s debate all week this week with no campaign appearances still won’t give him an edge, so he wants to cancel talking about what he stands for?
I can only imagine the hue and cry there would be if the democractic candidate behaved that way.
I guess McKKKain’s too stupid to do two things at once.
Just like the rest of his stupid, selfish, pedophile party of perverts and criminals.
I wish that thing on the side of his face would start talking.
I love his $5000.0 makeup artist. $400 haircuts are suddenly looking economical, considering they last a month.
McCain suspends campaign for ‘historic’ crisis
McPalin is apparently going “all in” on this thing.
I gots no landline! think about all the college kids who have a phone from home so they don’t get a landline.. Think of how O performs with them..Think about victory..