I’ve broken out my congressional forecast into four categories (or waves). And I have also separated the races out by region. Candidates in WAVE ONE are currently leading or even in the polls, and I fully expect the vast majority of them to win. Candidates in WAVE TWO are currently even or narrowly behind in the polls, and I expect at least 75% of them to win. Candidates in WAVE THREE are currently behind in the polls, but not by an insurmountable amount. Many of them are getting assistance from the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program. They need a little help to get them over the top. As of right now, I only expect about 25% of them to win. Yet, if the momentum continues in the current direction, it’s very possible that more than half of them will be victorious. Candidates in the WAVE FOUR category are likely to lose. But, if McCain’s support craters in their state (as is has recently in Michigan and Virginia) anything can happen. There’s more analysis at the bottom.
NORTHEAST (ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ)
WAVE ONE- NY13- Mike McMahon
WAVE ONE- NY25- Dan Maffei
WAVE ONE- NJ03- John Adler
WAVE ONE- NJ07- Linda Stender
WAVE ONE- PA03- Kathy Dahlkemper
WAVE ONE- MD01- Frank Kratovil
WAVE TWO- CT04- Jim Himes
WAVE TWO- NY26- Alice Kryzan
WAVE TWO- NY29- Eric Massa
WAVE THREE- NJ05- Dennis Shulman
WAVE THREE- PA15- Sam Bennett
WAVE THREE- WV02- Anne Barth
WAVE FOUR- NJ04- Josh Zeitz
WAVE FOUR- PA06- Bob Roggio
WAVE FOUR- PA18- Steve O’Donnell
MIDWEST
(IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO)
WAVE ONE- OH01- Steve Driehaus
WAVE ONE- OH07- Sharon Neuhardt
WAVE ONE- OH15- Mary Jo Kilroy
WAVE ONE- OH16- John Boccieri
WAVE ONE- MI07- Mark Schauer
WAVE ONE- MI09- Gary Peters
WAVE ONE- IL11- Debbie Halvorson
WAVE ONE- MN03- Ashwin Madia
WAVE ONE- CO04- Betsy Markey
WAVE TWO- OH02- Vic Wulsin
WAVE TWO- IN13- Mike Montagano
WAVE TWO- IL10- Dan Seals
WAVE TWO- MN06- Elwyn Tinklenberg
WAVE TWO- MO09- Judy Baker
WAVE THREE- OH03- Jane Mitakides
WAVE THREE- IL13- Scott Harper
WAVE THREE- MN02- Steve Sarvi
WAVE THREE- IA04- Becky Greenwald
WAVE THREE- MO06- Kay Barnes
WAVE THREE- NE02- Jim Esch
WAVE THREE- TX07- Michael Skelly
WAVE THREE- TX10- Larry Joe Doherty
WAVE FOUR- IL06- Jill Morganthaler
WAVE FOUR- IL18- Colleen Callahan
WAVE FOUR- IA05- Ron Hubler
WAVE FOUR- OK01- Georgianna Oliver
SOUTH
(FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR)
WAVE ONE- KY02- David Boswell
WAVE ONE- VA11- Gerry Connelly
WAVE ONE- NC08- Larry Kissell
WAVE ONE- FL08- Alan Grayson
WAVE ONE- AL02- Bobby Bright
WAVE TWO- VA02- Glenn Nye
WAVE TWO- VA10- Judy Feder
WAVE TWO- FL21- Raul Martinez
WAVE TWO- FL24- Suzanne Kosmas
WAVE TWO- FL25- Joe Garcia
WAVE TWO- LA04- Paul Carmouche
WAVE THREE- SC01- Linda Ketner
WAVE THREE- FL09- Bill Mitchell
WAVE THREE- FL18- Annette Taddeo
WAVE THREE- AL03- Josh Segall
WAVE FOUR- VA05- Tom Perriello
WAVE FOUR- NC10- Dan Johnson
WAVE FOUR- SC02- Rob Miller
WAVE FOUR- FL13- Christine Jennings
WAVE FOUR- FL15- Steve Blythe
WAVE FOUR- LA01- Jim Harlan
WAVE FOUR- LA04- Don Cravins
WEST
(NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY)
WAVE ONE- WYAL- Gary Trauner
WAVE ONE- NM01- Martin Heinrich
WAVE ONE- NM03- Harry Teague
WAVE ONE- AZ01- Ann Kirkpatrick
WAVE ONE- AZ03- Bob Lord
WAVE ONE- WA08- Darcy Burner
WAVE ONE- AKAL- Ethan Berkowitz
WAVE TWO- CA04- Charlie Brown
WAVE TWO- NV03- Dana Titus
WAVE THREE- NV03- Jill Derby
WAVE THREE- CA50- Nick Liebham
WAVE FOUR- ID01- Walt Minnick
WAVE FOUR- CA03- Bill Durston
WAVE FOUR- CA26- Russ Warner
WAVE FOUR- CA41- Tim Prince
WAVE FOUR- CA45- Julie Bornstein
WAVE FOUR- CA46- Debbie Cook
WAVE FOUR- CA52- Mike Lumpkin
Analysis: There are 27 candidates in the WAVE ONE category. I currently project that the Democrats will lose two seats (PA11- Paul Kanjorski and FL16- Tim Mahoney). So, by my most conservative estimate, the Democrats will pick up a net of 25 seats in the House of Representatives. However, I think we’re currently looking as about a WAVE 2.5 election. What I mean by that is that I anticipate that we’ll win all the WAVE ONE elections, about 75% of WAVE TWO elections, and approximately 25% of WAVE THREE elections. I think we’ll also win a couple of seats in WAVE FOUR, possibly including races that are not even on my radar (like Carol Shea-Porter, in 2006). To break that out for you:
WAVE ONE: 27 seats
WAVE TWO: 18 seats (x .75= 14 seats)
WAVE THREE: 17 seats (x .25= 4 seats)
WAVE FOUR: 21 seats (x .10= 2 seats)
That works out to 47 pick-ups and 2 losses, for a net pickup of 45 seats. That would put the composition of the House at 281 Democrats and 154 Republicans. That is my current prediction, but it can grow or shrink depending on the trajectory of the economy and the presidential race.
What percentage of these challengers are Blue Dog types? If we have 280 seats, and 80 of them are Blue Dogs, it could spell trouble.
Obama will, among other things, have to put the Blue Dogs in their place and tell them that this won’t be like 93-94 when conservative Democrats screwed Clinton’s big plans and allowed the 1994 debacle to happen.
Surprisingly few, considering how conservative these seats have been historically (we picked the low-hanging fruit in 2006). Possible Blue Dogs from the list include:
NY13- Mike McMahon
NY25- Dan Maffei
NJ03- John Adler
MD01- Frank Kratovil
WV02- Anne Barth
PA18- Steve O’Donnell
OH01- Steve Driehaus
OH16- John Boccieri
MI07- Mark Schauer
MI09- Gary Peters
MN03- Ashwin Madia
CO04- Betsy Markey
IN13- Mike Montagano
MN06- Elwyn Tinklenberg
MO09- Judy Baker
MO06- Kay Barnes
NE02- Jim Esch
TX07- Michael Skelly
TX10- Larry Joe Doherty
OK01- Georgianna Oliver
KY02- David Boswell
VA11- Gerry Connelly
NC08- Larry Kissell
AL02- Bobby Bright
VA10- Judy Feder
LA04- Paul Carmouche
SC01- Linda Ketner
AL03- Josh Segall
NC10- Dan Johnson
SC02- Rob Miller
FL13- Christine Jennings
LA01- Jim Harlan
LA04- Don Cravins
AZ01- Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ03- Bob Lord
AKAL- Ethan Berkowitz
CA04- Charlie Brown
NV03- Jill Derby
CA50- Nick Liebham
ID01- Walt Minnick
CA52- Mike Lumpkin
Not all of them will caucus with the Blue Dogs. A lot more of them will caucus with the New Democrats. None of them will caucus with the progressives. These are not progressive districts.
Rob Hubler, IA-5 is in your 4th wave. But Iowa is solidly in Obama’s column. McCain has already cratered here. SUSA did a statewide poll of 900 that showed Obama up even in the northwest qudrant of the state. That sample is pretty small, but still really surprising.
Hubler’s problem?
Money raised
Steven A. King (R) $645,765
Rob Hubler (D) $106,688
True. It’s a chicken/egg scenario. He’s not on Red to Blue, O2B, BlueAmerica, DFA, or much of any list. He has had a little help from Russ Feingold, but largely has raised that money himself. All the other Iowa politicians say they support him, but I don’t think Braley, Loebsack or Boswell have shared anything from their campaign PACs. Use it or lose it diaries are not having an impact on those folks.
Unless the Red to Blue committee decides to help before it’s too late to be meaningful, or unless Markos or someone decides to adopt his race and send some contributions his way, Hubler’s only tailwind comes from Obama’s coattails. Sorry for the mixed metaphors, but Obama is up on the air big time across the river from Council Bluffs.
I have met Hubler and he is an impressive person, a progressive, a veteran, and a retired minister. He’s smart, decent and funny. Steve King is an absolute travesty and doesn’t really have a campaign, just ads. This is the year he could be beaten, and if I sound frustrated it’s because I am. King is one of the most reactionary, bigoted and dumb members of Congress, and if John Shadegg is worth netroots attention, then King is.
am not even in the Fifth District, but have thought that Hubler had a better chance than Greenwald in the 4th because he is a better candidate by far, and Latham is well-liked in his district. The 4th is much more Democratic, but a lot of Dems cross over to vote for Latham. And a lot of Repubs in the Fifth are embarrassed by King’s antics and ineffectiveness.
I never ever give money to the DCCC. Thia is an example of why not.
I agree that he’s a good progressive. Thanks for pointing out that he isn’t getting any support from the Netroots. I’ll make some inquiries.
Bless you.
I can put you in touch with him directly if you want. I assume you can see my email addy.
Could Dana Rohrabacher be going down?
Evidence of the existence of a Supreme Being…