I’m not endorsing the Big Ten Battleground polling outfit. But, what if they’re right?
Illinois: Obama 61%, McCain 32%
Indiana: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
Iowa: Obama 52%, McCain 39%
Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
Michigan: Obama 58%, McCain 36%
Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 38%
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, McCain 41%
Wisconsin: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
If McCain loses these large states by these margins, the popular vote will be a complete blowout. The numbers look inflated to me, but the way this election is tilting in the last days, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Obama win all these states by comfortable margins. Having said that, these polls are definitely outliers.
Maybe not such an outlier.
Is this the final wave that I predicted would come if everything fell the right way?
My expectation has always been for the better part of a year that Obama would win by 6 to 8 points (more towards the high end of that range). Call it O54-46M for simplicity’s sake, and deduct a bit from each for Barr and Nader. For the Big Ten poll to come out in reality on Election Day, I suspect Obama would need to win by 10 (maybe even 12), which is the very extreme high of what I think he could get.
I do think things are trending towards a 10-point lead, which surprises me, and in some polls Obama has already gotten to that and more, so who knows?
This looks more and more like 1980 every day.
if he wins Michigan by 20 points and Illinois by 30 and Ohio by 12, he could hit 60% in the popular vote. Consider the numbers we’re already predicting out of New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and California! And McCain’s losing in FL, NC, and VA, too. He can’t make it up in Texas and Alabama.
True, and the Q polls lend some credibility to these. We’ll see what Ras and SUSA have to say. All of those, with the possible (probable?) exceptions of Ohio and Indiana, feel about right. The Michigan number is in line with Ras’s last poll there, which had Obama +16.
Black share of turnout in Georgia also continues to hold in that 35-36% range. And one GOP operative tells Marc Ambinder that he expects 35-36% to be the black share of turnout on Election Day. I’m obviously skeptical, but that would almost guarantee Obama takes Georgia, especially since I think we’re going to see the reverse-Bradley Effect to at least some degree.
PPP also says their Ohio numbers are in line with Suffolk’s, which put Obama ahead by 9. So two of my four favorite pollsters — PPP and Q — have the lead in Ohio opening up for Obama. Confirmation from Ras and/or SUSA would seal it for me.
I’ll just say this: It will be the first time I will enjoy someone saying to me, I told you so.
Stomach. In. Knots. New sig, perhaps?
I’ll wait for the certification and inauguration. Until then our fav bottle will remain in the cold room.
Not a very big sample size and it was of “registered voters and those likely to register before the election”, not likely voters.
Makes me think they are a bit inflated
Even if they are quite inflated, it would still add up to a a win in those states.
Well, it would certainly be nice to hear the phrase “Michigan blowout win” at least once this fall. This is probably the best and only chance…
Ha! Michigan this year has proved that no matter how good a team is it still needs a competent quarterback.
It’s good to see Big Ten country returning to its more liberal roots.
It’s tough for any team to see their senior quarterback, running back, and left tackle head off to the pros and have to replace them. Throw in a new coach as well, and you have a recipe for a bad season or three.
As soon as the economy became the issue, I knew it was over for McCain in Michigan. In a nation full of bad state economies, Michigan is the uber-worst.
It’s weird for me to see Michigan struggle. I’m so used to Michigan being one of the scariest opponents on Iowa’s schedule.
But I hear you about the economy. That’s the real reason Obama has shot ahead across the country–imo.
Also, in Iowa at least (and probably MN, IL, and WI), they really don’t like negative campaigning. Two of my relatives who have always voted Republican are voting for Obama this year (including my 90 year old Grandma).
Well, Michigan is down this year. Lucky for the Hawkeyes that Michigan and Ohio State are off the schedule this year…Go Hawks!
But yes, I like the Big Ten’s chances for Obama this year 😉
It’s also tough to bring in a spread offense when the existing players, especially the QB, weren’t recruited for that. It requires different skills and natural talents.
Not to mention that Carr IMO didn’t recruit very well of late anyway.
Booman Tribune ~ Big Ten Blowout?
Outliers or harbingers of a trend….
The first round of Big 10 polls before the crisis actually seemed skewered towards McCain so these could be valid.
some are writing these polls up as the Powell bounce.
another conservative hops on board: – Goldwater
I don’t have respect for him.”
That seems to be a consistent refrain from a number of Republicans.
after he ditched Wife No. 1.
He and Bush deserve each other, let me tell you.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Nancy Reagan went into the booth and voted for Obama. Not at all. Just to twist the knife.
(This is probably only of interest to SoDak folks and poll buffs, but…) The poll that pisses me off is the one the Sioux Falls Argus Leader posted yesterday – and made their above-the-fold-story. It shows McCain with a 48-41 lead in the state, which doesn’t sound that off, but the poll is from October 13-15 and it’s front page news yesterday? Come on, Argus.
I don’t really think Obama has a good chance of winning SoDak, but I bet the gap has narrowed some – and for the Argus to report almost 10-day-old poll information as current is pretty irresponsible.
SoDak hasn’t gone Democrat in a general since 1964, but Clinton made it close in 1996, losing by just 3 or 4%. I would think Obama might do the same – perhaps even better. You just never know. I see a lot of Obama signs here in the eastern half of the state (the west is an entirely different story, except for the reservations – and many I know from Pine Ridge and Rosebud are strongly for Obama, and they have already voted 🙂 ).
the numbers look nice, but we still need to work like their 2% percent apart.
Absolutely.
Now is the time to finish McSame off.
Anyone who witnessed (and paid attention to) what happened to the Savings and Loan industry in the 1980’s after it was deregulated, Mr. Greenspan.
Damn right. Everybody was worshiping at the alter of Alan Greenspan for 15 years, and there were only a few people willing to say he was full of it. IIRC, I think one of those lonely critics included Sen. Tom Harkin. But not many more.