When I was a young teenager, I was a big boxing fan. My favorite boxer was the Heavyweight Champion of the World, Larry Holmes. I liked how Holmes boxed and I liked his personality. I thought he was a funny guy. When I was in seventh-grade, Larry Holmes had a fight with an Irish-American boxer named Gerry Cooney. The promoters of the fight, including Don King, knew they would get better ratings if they accentuated the racial component of the fight. They called Cooney ‘The Great White Hope’ and they tried to turn Holmes into Apollo Creed. I was immune to all the racial marketing. Larry Holmes was my man and I didn’t want him losing to some punk upstart with no skills.
One of my junior high school friends pulled me aside one day and asked me in a hushed tone, “Why do you always root for the black guy?” I didn’t really understand the question. First of all, I couldn’t think of another example of me rooting against a white fighter. Holmes hadn’t fought any white guys that I could remember. But, secondly, it had never occurred to me to root against Larry Holmes because he was black and his opponent was white. This was my first real encounter with racism, and I found it very disturbing. The thing is, my friend wasn’t a racist. He’s not a racist today. But he gave me a lesson on how race consciousness can work.
As I grew older, I found race consciousness in other settings. I found it in white, urban machine politics. I found it in Hillbilly bars in Western Michigan. I found it college dormitories and cafeterias. And here’s what I learned.
In some white-segregated settings, whites will not admit to each other that they will support the black guy. It could be in a sports-context, a music/cultural context, or a political context, but sometimes whites are ashamed to admit to each other that they like something associated with black culture. You can call it a reverse Bradley Effect, but I think it explains why there is no pattern of white undecided voters moving over to McCain late in this campaign. I think a lot of white voters are uncomfortable telling a pollster, or even their friends and family, that they like Michael Jordan, or Stevie Wonder, or Barack Obama. That’s just the way it is. And I think it means that McCain’s last hope will be illusory.
Frank Luntz does not envision a way that McCain is elected POTUS
BBC link
at about the 3:20 mark.
You can use the same example to argue the reverse. These undecided white voters are undecided despite knowing that McCain is more of the same, because they have an undying urge to root for the white underdog vs. the black favorite, and that race consciousness will come through in the voting booth. And then there’s the fact that they’ll be in a white-segregated environment the day after and for the next four years. Do they want to lie to their buddies and say, for the next four years, that they voted for McCain when they voted for Obama?
McCain currently holds an advantage among whites, about 9 points among white men in the latest ABC/WaPo poll. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the white undecideds roughly break the same way as the white decideds–even though I am hopeful about Obama’s performance because he has run a highly effective “middle of the road” “mainstream” (read: white friendly) campaign.
Regardless of what happens, let’s please be very precise and methodical about extrapolating from the results on Tuesday. I won’t take seriously any declarations of a Reverse Bradley Effects (or the more standard Bradley effect) the night of or even the day after. We have to go county by county, compare turn out to previous elections, look discriminately at exit poll data, consider all alternate explanations, etc, etc.
Yes.
But, remember…
The Bradley Effect happens when a white voter tells a pollster that he or she is going to vote for the black candidate (even though they are not going to) because they don’t want the pollster to suspect them of racism or prejudice.
It doesn’t normally apply to undecided voters.
Most white racists are happy to declare their support for McCain. Very few of them are falsely promising to back Obama.
The question is whether some white undecided voters are feigning their undecidedness so that are pollsters won’t suspect them of racism. In other words, is there a hidden vote for McCain.
My point is that this works both ways. Many white people live within microcultures that heavily discourage any affinity for something ‘black’, be it music, film, athletes, or politicians.
I’m not arguing that this phenomenon will lead to a hidden Obama vote. I’m arguing that it is strong enough to cancel out, or nearly so, and so-called Bradley Effect with undecideds.
It very well could cancel out. And I’m not sure there will be a “Bradley effect” per se to begin with, because there are already socially acceptable excuses to not vote for Obama, like he has ‘Terrorist’ ties or is a ‘Socialist.’
I simply think a number of scenarios are still possible, and wanted to illustrate the counter scenario, which still appears more likely to this white guys’ eyes.
Of course, big picture wise, even a 10 point loss among undecideds across the board won’t result in a loss of the ultimate prize, if polls are correct.
a TPM catch:
Sen. Arlen Specter, (R-PA) is hoping for a Bradley effect in PA Watch the Video
Another factor in this election – the unpolled national popular vote:
How much of the overseas vote is underestimated or overlooked…in terms of popular vote! If the island of Jamaica is any indication, U.S.citizens are out in force – 1,000 ballots in a week – some 12,000 U.S. citizens there are eligible to vote (exclude minors). The Embassy there reports a 600% increase! U.S. Embassies provide free Air courier of ballots cast to citizens’ state of residence. Some citizens are reported flying home to vote. Repeat that worldwide! and – could amount to the total population of two small states?
I actually do not believe that there ARE that many “undecided white voters” still in existence. And those that are still undecided between Obama and McPalin? I doubt very much that race has a great deal to do with their position, consciously or unconsciously. Except for the few that fear a real, equal opportunity/affirmative action backlash that will marginalize opportunities for white people…not necessarily a “racist” fear per se because it has nothing whatsoever to do with genetic racial inferiorities or superiorities in either direction, just with the politics of race the existence of which is undeniable no matter which ways you might cut it….except for those few the undecideds are in that position because of economic and/or or international experience-military experience questions.
Racists? They may not be straight with reporters or pollsters, but they know who they are and what they feel. Bet on it. It’s not going to come as any epiphany to them once they enter the voting booth that they do not like or trust people of color. They LIVE it.
The others?
Race differences have been so effectively smudged by the media over the past 25 years or so…sit coms, ads, movies, equal opportunity talking heads of every variety and hue, etc…that only the die-hard, cosnsciously racist dinosaurs remain so racially affected that it is going to influence the vote in significant enough numbers to make a real difference in the election results.
Remember—it was 1984 when Bill Cosby launched his hit sitcom about an upper-middle class black family. That’s 35 years. That means that people of 50 years of age or less today were still in their socially formative years when it was not only a common but damned near pervasive idea on the national media that “black folks are no different from white folks.” Those who are going to get it already GOT it, and it is not going to be superseded by some deep, dark racist secret that they have been harboring in their subconscious. Not when the candidate in question is visually and in terms of general style simply Dr. Cliff Huxtable redux.
Now if he looked and acted more like Fifty Cent? Then the counter-programming might take over.
But Senator Obama? His expensive suits and his Ivy League accent/education and his upper-middle class resume? His pretty wifey and two adorable kids, etc?
I think not.
Remember the 35 years of media mantra.
“Black folks are just the same as ‘us’.”
No matter that it was as much an advertising ploy as anything else.
It worked.
It worked on the psyches of its targets.
And now?
Voià!!!
President Obama.
“WHY…he’s just like US!!!”
Barack knows the drill.
Be’s been running it for 30+ years himself.
VERY successfully, I might add.
Bet on it.
Later…
AG
I didn’t believe that there were that many undecideds out there either – until I overheard a bunch of them talking at work. What I’m seeing is that the undecideds are those who normally lean Republican (always vote Republican but don’t consider themselves to be Republican) who don’t like McCain, but they can’t bring themselves to vote for the (n-word). This is Kentucky, so consider the hillbilly source and be careful about applying it globally, but that’s what I’m seeing here in the bluegrass regarding undecideds.
Pretty much the same here in Northern KY, too. There are folks who are really torn over this decision here, people I know at work and around town. Boone and Kenton counties are reliably red for an urban area, but cracks are appearing.
Obama’s going to be across the river in Cincy tonight at Nippert Stadium at U of Cincy. Nippert holds 35,000…I think it’ll fill up quick.
Doors open at 6, I’d get there early, parking’s pretty crappy out there.
I remember the Holmes Clooney fight very well.
I actually made a chunk of cash on it. A lot of people at the bar where I watched it didn`t like that I was betting on Holmes. I kept shouting for Holmes to belt him, while Clooney kept pulling up his oversized White trunks with Irish green trim. While they were calling me a loser for betting on Holmes, I`d up the stakes.
Collecting my bets after the fight (not much of a fight really from my point of view ), I did have to tone down my comments on the racism that overtook their money. I was warned to take my money, but to stfu.
I never did figure out how racism could impair the judgement of an outcome so obvious, of people who should at least not be betting against their better interests.
I almost felt guilty (NOT) of taking advantage of their racism.
I was betting on boxing, while they were betting on color.
Maybe they’re deciding.
Obama takes largest lead yet in Gallup poll of likely voters