Steve Singiser has a top-notch article at Daily Kos that looks at the plight of Jeb Bush. Jeb is currently polling in dead-last place among 2012 Republican presidential aspirants. While Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin are all polling in the low-20’s, and Newt Gingrich is polling at 13%, Jeb is clocking in at 6%, just below ‘Someone Else.’ Singiser does an excellent analysis of why this is the case and he also details the several ways in which George undermined the political aspirations of his younger brother.
Yet, I’m not sure that Jeb won’t be the 2012 nominee of the Republican Party. Steve hits on Jeb’s many strengths.
On paper, Jeb Bush should be able to absolutely blast this field into political oblivion. He is the former governor of what will, by 2012, be the third largest state in the Union. While serving as governor, his approval ratings were almost uniformly in the high 50s or better. His families have ties to Washington dating back three generations and eight decades. He is, for all of his ideological foibles that would drive progressives mad, one of the more telegenic advocates from the political right-wing. On the stump, he would be at no worse than a draw with the other four named candidates.
And, despite all that, there he is. Not just in fifth place, but in an almost unthinkable position: dead last, in a landslide.
First, let’s consider something about the nature of the Republicans Party. Looking at the historical record, it’s plain that the GOP has a strong tendency to nominate candidates that have either been vice-president or vice-presidential candidates. In 1960, 1968, and 1972, they chose Eisenhower’s veep, Richard Nixon. In 1976, they chose Nixon’s veep, Gerald Ford. In 1988 and 1992 they chose Reagan’s veep, Poppy Bush. And in 1996, they chose Ford’s 1976 running mate, Bob Dole. This doesn’t really have anything specific to do with the role of the vice-president. It’s more an indication of the GOP’s strong sense of hierarchy. George W. Bush won the 2000 nomination on name-recognition alone, despite the fact that his father had been a failed president. McCain won the 2008 nomination on the strength of his second place finish in 2000. As absurd as it might seem, based on precedent, Sarah Palin should be the odds-on favorite to become the Republican nominee in 2012 because, as the vice-presidential pick in 2008, she has first place in their hierarchy.
But, here’s another way of looking at it.
Republican Tickets
1976: Ford/Dole
1980: Reagan/Bush
1984: Reagan/Bush
1988: Bush/Quayle
1992: Bush/Quayle
1996: Dole/Kemp
2000: Bush/Cheney
2004: Bush/Cheney
2008: McCain/Palin
In 1996, Dan Quayle was considered too tarnished to win so the Republicans had to revert back 20 years to find the next person in the hierarchy. In 2008, Cheney did not enter the contest and Kemp was too old so the Republicans had to improvise. They chose the second place finisher from 2000. What this shows is a strong sense of both dynasty and respect of position.
If we just kind of use this as a formula, we can see that the Republicans will be inclined to pick either Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush. Palin could suffer the same fate as Quayle, which would basically hand the nomination by default to Jeb.
It’s true that people have a severe case of Bush fatigue. But unhappiness with the presidency of Poppy Bush didn’t prevent the Republicans from nominating one of his son’s eight years later. And Jeb Bush is a much better politician than George Jr. Moreover, Romney and Huckabee are extremely weak candidates, as we discovered in the 2008 primaries. Unless someone new arrives on the scene, I can’t see Jeb losing to the current cast of candidates. And Republicans simply don’t nominate people who are new on the scene. Even Reagan earned his stripes during his strong 1976 challenge to President Ford.
So, despite it all, I’d still put my money on Jeb. And, honestly, he’d be their strongest candidate.
Can’t get the vision of 41 crying in the final months of Shrub’s term. I said it then, and I’ll say it now:
He was crying because he thought Shrub had forever ruined Jeb’s chances of becoming President.
How is Jeb going to handle the dissolution of his marriage and the junkie daughter?
Inquiring minds wanna know.
And there’s a difference between the ‘ disappointment’ in Bush 41 and Shrub.
Shrub was so bad, that this country decided that they’d take a chance on a BLACK MAN for President.
I’ve written many times that those of us who support Barack Obama need to thank George W. Bush. Because only him being a complete and utter failure, in the way that he was, would have made the election of Barack Obama possible.
I used to laugh at those who would ask, ‘ how come a Black man has to win the Presidency at the worst time in decades?’
My response was – did you ever think this country would consider a Black man in halfway decent times?
The America that 41 left was in far better shape than the one Shrub did.
Maybe it’s because I’m Black, but I truly believe that it was only by running this country into the ground, that Barack Obama became a plausible candidate.
I’d like to disagree with you on that, but I suspect that you’re probably right to some extent.
Personally, I’d have voted to Barack Obama in other elections, too, but it is true that this time, I’d have voted for Bozo the Clown if he’d been running on the Democratic ticket.
On the upside, after the Obama presidency, and having seen that he did a decent job, more white people will be open to voting for the next black candidate.
Progress is being made. Excruciatingly slowly, to be sure, but it’s being made.
I agree with you to this extent:
If Barack Obama is judged to have done a good job, that opens the way for other Black and Hispanic and other non-White candidates.
If he’s judged to be horrendous, we’ll have another good 10 White Male Presidents.
It is what it is.
Daddy Bush merely attained the level of mediocrity that characterizes the family tree. Kiddie Bush is to “disappointment” as quadruple amputation is to a broken toe. For the foreseeable future, the name of Bush will have the same effect on political discussion as the name Hiroshima has had on Japanese discussions of nuclear weapons — and for much the same reason.
Which, of course, doesn’t mean Gops won’t nominate Jeb. Only fools try to predict the behavior of psychos. But the “strongest candidate” in the general? Please. There’s no way he gets the monkey off his back.
Don’t see Jeb in 2012. With the current repub disarray, and Obama’s likely continued popularity, 2012 will be a ‘throw away’ election for repubs. They’ll focus more on increasing their congressional numbers toward a strong move in 2016. Unless Obama does something disasterous (which I doubt, given his political shrewdness), he’s a safe bet for a second term. And Jeb is astute enough to avoid being a sacrificial lamb.
Were I placing a bet right now, I’d guess that one of the names not on the list (Pawlenty, Sanford, etc.) will be the ’12 nominee, and lose badly. Then the repub establishment will say “I told you so” and run Jeb in ’16.
As an aside, you included Dole. He really was more of the ‘designated loser’ in ’96 than a viable hope of a winner.
Don’t count out the possibility that Palin and her people are so ideologically ardent that they will attempt to run her in 2012 regardless of the chances of winning. Prominent among Palin’s detractors within the GOP are the technocrats who will be inclined to sit this one out. What you could see is the pragmatic portion of the party sitting on their hands while the extremists rally. Unless something happens between now and then to reconcile the American people to the notion of a far right government, the result would be a disposable candidacy, but more like a kamikaze attack and less like a sacrificial lamb. But the end result will be the same: It will strengthen the hand of the party elders to choose the most viable candidate in 2016 without too much worry about placating the base.
depends a lot on who’s in charge of the RATpublican party, eh. right now it’s the lunatic fringe, with libaugh, cheney and other miscreants as their face…not good odds for bushco™ v.3.
the vegas line:
at the moment, they’ve got nothing and no one that’s a viable candidate, but lot’s of things can happen between now and then. however, l don’t think jeb’s going to be the beneficiary.
If I’m not mistaken, after he left the governor’s mansion Jeb went around the state selling Lehman Brothers paper to counties and cities, thus screwing up many a local budget and lots of pensions too.
People call it the “Bush Crime Family,” and really that’s what they are. From Prescott handling Nazi investments this keeps going on and on. If RICO were actually used for the big criminals the whole family would be housed at federal institutions. Not the White House. I guess you get to a certain point you become too big to fail. Or get arrested.
You know who else is rooting for the Jebster? … Watch the TradMed kick it up a notch in a year or so .. nothing could be more fun for them .. then a Obama/Bush matchup … imagine the pontificating and the one thing Jebster has going for him .. he’d fire up the fundies
Another Bush, argghhh. My head hurts!
Looking at those past tickets…
Anybody notice that the Republikkkans aren’t exactly what one would call a DEMOCRATIC party? They’re very Monarchist in their leanings….dynasties all the way, when they can’t find an almost immortal dude to run again and again and again on their ticket.
I’d open a Vegas book on Ron Reagan Jr. if he showed any interest in being more than a talking head….the R’s would flock to him like moths around a spotlight.
It’s not the man, it’s the pedigree…
Anybody wanna throw in with me to open a Republican AKC? Only the best in breed get to run for office…..