Kos provides a useful and informative chart:
The information contained in this chart is going to make up the heart of Joe Sestak’s case against Arlen Specter in the 2010 primary. Arlen Specter was born in February, 1930. If he is reelected, he will turn 81 a month after he is sworn in, and he would be 86 years-old when his term was up. It’s very unlikely, especially considering Specter’s experience with cancer, that Specter would seek reelection in 2016. This is important because (as the chart above demonstrates) Specter’s voting patterns are determined by his changing political circumstances. If he wins reelection in the 2010 race, he will finally be free to vote however he wants knowing that he will never again have to face the voters. We would finally find out who the ‘real’ Arlen Specter is, and I don’t think anyone can predict how that will turn out.
The core argument against Specter isn’t really that he voted with Bush x percent of the time, or that he is some kind of radical. The core argument is that he doesn’t stand for anything and he can’t be trusted. He’s voting with the Democrats 97% of the time now, while he was voting with them a mere 16% of the time in the spring. I am a voter in the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania. How I am supposed to know which of those numbers is the closest to the ‘real’ Arlen Specter?
By contrast, if Joe Sestak is elected, he’ll have to match his voting record to his campaign rhetoric. To be sure, he might swing to the right once he is free and clear of a Democratic primary, but he’ll pay a price for broken promises. Specter will not. And Specter’s word is no good. He only switched parties to give himself a better chance of survival.
For Sestak to win the race, he has to make the campaign largely about Specter’s unreliability and lack of core convictions. It has to be about character. Sestak will also have to find a way to keep the vast majority of the black electorate in his corner despite Obama’s campaigning for Specter. He needs to spend a lot of time on black radio and get out into the community in a big way, because he can’t win with the progressive bloc split.
I wish someone would show us Sestak’s record, re voting with the party. I don’t want to trade one conservative for another. I love what is happening now. But I think of Jane Harmon.
She was a Democrat who swung far to the left during her primary the last time Marcy Winograd challenged her. (Marcy is running again, and I think she has a real shot of winning this time. I know her personally and she’d be a wonderful Congresswoman.)
After she was elected, she went back to her old ways.
I think while we know this could happen with Specter, Sestak is for me just one big question mark. I hope Kos or others really digs into his records. Don’t just ask people to vote against Specter. What’s the reason to vote FOR Sestak? Too many Democrats have turned blue under our noses. I don’t want yet another one.
On Progressive Punch he ranks 75th (between Al Green and Bill Delahunt), which is damn good. However, his District Tilt score is ‘1’, which is the lowest score on a 1-to-5 scale.
He scores strongest on Family Planning, Government Checks on Corporate Power, Labor Rights, and Housing. He scores worst on Corporate Subsidies, Fair Taxation, and Justice for All: Civil and Criminal. His War and Peace ranking is 51st.
Interesting. Thanks for that.
By “blue”, I assume you mean “Blue Dog”. It’s amazing how weaselly the terminology they use is sometimes, isn’t it?
Maybe we should start calling them “Red Dogs” to underscore what they actually are. 😉
Good point!
He could bring this up, too:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/08/05/specter_defends_voting_for_mccain-palin.html
I hope all who long for term limits remember this phrase.
Actually this chart has convinced me of something, we should actually return Arlen. Because we know fear WORKS with him. We re-elect him but keep the pressure on him via polls and strong challengers he believes could win. He will vote with us ALL THE TIME. I think Sestak is more likely to pull a Lieberman and tell us to fuck off once he wins.
Sure, if Specter was young again, with many terms in front of him, or in the House with elections every two years.
But for a senator, it’s six years until the next challenge, and (as mentioned) this is likely to be his very last term, with retirement following. So “pressure” just won’t work.