One thing that is helping NRSC Chairman John Cornyn outperform his predecessors Liddy Dole and John Ensign is the fact that he doesn’t have to defend any dead-duck incumbents. Dole had to deal with mortally crippled incumbents like Rick Santorum, Conrad Burns, and George Allen. Ensign had to deal with Ted Stevens. By contrast, Cornyn can mainly focus on defending open seats. That might seem counterintuitive, since it is generally thought to be easier to defend incumbents than open seats, but that truism doesn’t hold when the incumbent is under investigation or generally loathed.
Another factor helping Cornyn is that the president’s party normally loses seats in the first midterm election of his or her term. Anticipating that fact, more candidates are willing to make the plunge and challenge Democratic incumbents.
Yet, having noted these advantages, it remains true that Cornyn has had a lot of success in recruiting. He has at least put the GOP in a position to gain some senate seats in the 2010 elections. During the last two cycles, the Republican challenge was to limit the damage.
It’s still more likely than not that the Democrats will win the open seat elections in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire. But the Republicans can more than make up for that if they can pull off coups in Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, and Colorado. It looks likely that significant pressure will be put on Barbara Boxer and Blanche Lincoln’s seats, as well.
The Republicans are definitely not out of the woods yet, though, because on a good night the Democrats could score another bruising victory that would have devastating consequences for the GOP. If the Dems pick up the open seats in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hamphire, hold all their own seats, and add upset wins in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Louisiana, they’ll have a 66 seat majority.
On the flip side, if the Republicans can hold, say, two out of three from Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire, hold all their other seats, and add Connecticut, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, and Illinois, the Democrats will be down to 53 seats.
Needless to say, neither extreme result is likely. The most likely outcome is that either the Dems or the Republicans net two seats…maybe three. It’s obviously preferable that the Democrats are the ones to pick up seats. But Cornyn has done a good job of making that less probable and of giving his side a chance to win the night for a change.
A lot will depend on what happens between now and election night in 2010. But a lot will be determined in the next few months as the two sides complete the recruitment period and we find out how successful Obama is in implementing his first-year agenda.
If I had a farm I’d bet it that Illinois is not in play. Other than that, it’s just a waste of time trying to prognosticate at this point. Everything depends on where the economy and Obama’s perceived promises end up a year from now, and whether the Dem-controlled Congress is seen as pulling out of its serial posturing and dithering show.
It does seem like the the Dems are at the disadvantage if there are big electoral shifts. They are near the limit on how many more Senate seats they can reasonably win even if the electorate is happy by then, while Democratic failure to deliver could wipe out their majorities in both houses simply by a massive drop in turnout by disaffected Dems and disappointed Indies. I don’t think it matters who Cornyn recruits or what strategies the GOP comes up with. Everything hinges on whether the Dems have shown that they might be worth keeping. And that, right now, is beyond the scope of informed guessing.
While Cornyn is in relatively better shape than his two predecessors (more because of circumstance than his own doing), what recruiting “successes” the NRSC has had have mostly occurred on GOP turf anyway.
Republicans currently hold Missouri, Ohio, Kentucky, Florida, and New Hampshire. Respectively, the NRSC has recruited Rep. Roy Blunt, former Rep. Rob Portman, Sec. of State Trey Grayson, Gov. Charlie Crist, and former state AG Kelly Ayotte to run. While each has a title to give them credibility, they are predominantly flawed candidates battling to defend home turf.
Something I’ll expand on soon at my own blog is that Cornyn has offered very weak recruiting on Democratic turf. Besides Mark Kirk in Illinois (who, despite his faux moderate image, is too conservative for President Obama’s blue home state), Republicans can’t yet point to one big recruiting success in a Democratic-incumbent state. Polls in Nevada, Arkansas, and Colorado are dangerous for Dems not because of GOP challengers but because of incumbent weakness. In those three states, respectively, Republicans would love to field Jon Porter, Mike Huckabee, and John Suthers. But those three said no, and the GOP could potentially be stuck with Sue Lowden, Curtis Coleman, and Ken Buck. In Connecticut, the NRSC did get former Rep. Rob Simmons to run, but they haven’t been able to clear the primary of other credible, well-funded challengers (Tom Foley, Sam Caligiuri, Peter Schiff, et. al.) who will force Simmons to blow his $$$ on the primary. In Delaware, Rep. Mike Castle (the DE-GOP’s only contender) looks just as likely to retire as to run for Senate. And, in California, the much-touted Carly Fiorina is politically fatally–flawed.
In short, Cornyn’s and the NRSC’s perceived decent standing is due to a healthy combination of conventional wisdom (that the Party out of power does well in the mid-term) and circumstance putting him in relatively better shape than his predecessors.
I think Mark Kirk makes Illinois competitive. The Hill article I cited says that Cornyn’s staff is privately optimistic that Castle will run, making Delaware competitive. As for the crowded primary field in Connecticut, I don’t think challengers need that much money, certainly not parity. And they benefit from winning something prior to the real show.
I wouldn’t say that the GOP is favored in any of those three states, but the fact that they’re making races out of them could help offset any losses in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire. And none of those three races are slam dunks.
For the GOP to gain seats, they need to fight those six races to a draw and then pick up a seat or two: Colorado? Arkansas? Nevada?
Who knows?
The Dems need to get on the ball in North Carolina before that opportunity slips away. Right now, I see it as most likely that we wind up with between 58 and 62 Dems.
Two of them – just below Senate Guru’s entry.
they are relentless. thanks for keeping an eye out.
There’s another one: search acai.
Is there any way to allow users to flag spam directly so we don’t have to clog the real diaries?
Did you see Jerome’s comment the other day? ET had a nasty case.
he may be doing well in other states, but corny and the nrcc certainly hasn’t made any friends of the gop faithful in colorado. his ill conceived attempt to anoint jane (not gale) norton as the candidate du jour has created what may turn out to be a major shit storm within the colorado republican party.
the biggest threats bennett faces are a primary challenge by andrew romanoff, and the potential failure of health care reform.
stock up on popcorn.
There is no plausible scenario for Barbara Boxer to lose her seat. She is tough as nails and will destroy Fiorina. In my opinion:)
How hard can it be to beat Fiorina into the ground? She’s a poster child for corporate arrogance and management incompetence. I’d love to be writing the attack ads.
The Democrats will defeat Burr (R-NC). The only question at the moment is which Democrat will do it.
But is Obama screws up healthcare, all bets are off. Mandates without cost controls or no bill at all ensures Republican gains in purple districts and states.
And Van Jones’s resignation is not a good omen of a strong speech on healthcare.