Here’s a reminder of why you read this blog. From today’s Washington Post:
Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) has decided against succeeding his close friend and mentor, the late Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) as chairman of the Senate’s health committee, a senior Senate aide said Tuesday night.
The decision sets in motion a final game of musical chairs involving committee chairmanships after Kennedy’s death.
Dodd’s decision leaves the chairmanship of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee to Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), who follows Dodd in seniority. Multiple sources in the Harkin orbit, requesting anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said that he is certain to take over the HELP committee.
Harkin is currently chairman of the Agriculture Committee and would have to give up that position. He would likely be replaced at Agriculture by Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who faces a difficult reelection bid in 2010.
And, what I wrote on August 27th.
Now that Teddy Kennedy has passed on, the Senate is about to embark on a game of musical committee chairs. How it plays out will have consequences, so I want to run through it for you…
…Another scenario occurs if Dodd decides to stay at Banking so that he can clean up the mess and complete the work he has already started. In that case, the next in line for the HELP chair is Tom Harkin of Iowa. Harkin would be a fantastic replacement for Kennedy there, but he already chairs the Agriculture Committee. (I told you this was a game of musical chairs, didn’t I?) So, what happens if Harkin decides to take the HELP chair and give up the Agriculture chair?
Here’s where it gets interesting because the next three Dems in line for the Agriculture chair already have chairs on more influential committees: (Leahy on Judiciary, Conrad on Budget, and Baucus on Finance). That means that Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas would probably inherit the chair of Agriculture and that would give her reelection prospects a big boost. What that would mean for agricultural policy is anybody’s guess.
Why wait for the Washington Post when you get the scoop from me?
Ok, Mr. Prescience, answer this question, which for unknown reasons, occurred to me this morning:
How long will Hillary Clinton last in the Cabinet?
And what will she do when she leaves?
(If you can make these predictions, then I start taking advice on the stock market from you.)
Of more relevance: when will Harkin actually take over? Is this immediate?
They have to vote on the change. They’ll get unanimous consent for it though, so you won’t see any record of it. Probably some time today, Reid will read off the committee changes and then Harkin and Lincoln will take over their respective committees.
Hillary? She is doing an effective job at the State Department. She’ll definitely last until at least the next inauguration. I don’t know if she’ll want to serve in a second term. Part of that will depend on whether or not she plans on running for president in 2016. If she does, she’ll want to bow out after the first term.
What will she do after she leaves State if she doesn’t run for president? She could run for governor. Or, she could join Bill on the elder statesmen global circuit.
We don’t wait for the WaPo; in fact we scoff at the WaPo’s lack of prescience. Speaking of which, still wondering about Ben Nelson (see his latest acknowledging role for public option). Yesterday the thread pointed out that small farm or ranch is the same as small business (and small business owners are upfront about how medical insurance costs are ruining them) – but seems to me the % of voters engaged in small ranching/ farmiing in an ag state could be considerably higher than % of voters in non-ag states involved in small business, hence should carry more weight for the senator. Looking in to the statistics (nothing yet). Unlike NE, Conrad’s ND has oil and gas, mining and food processing industries in addition to pure ag. (Has an honorary equine though, and that’s impressive).
ah yes, he works for the insurance industry
Your musical chairs post presented several options for how things would shake out.
But which WaPo is this report from? the accurate WaPo or the political spin WaPo?
However, having Harkin chair HELP would be great. Dodd has some work to do on Banking if he wants to stay around. Lincoln on Ag is good as well. If she gets re-elected, we watch her like a hawk. If not, the next three in line are Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Ranking member is Saxby Chambliss. We need to remember that Agriculture has jurisdiction over the Forest Service and Food Stamps as well as farm bills.
Yep, toot your own horn. I read BooMan Tribune every day and rarely the WaPo, except as it’s quoted.
Yes, I am pleased with how this turned out. Tim Johnson would have been a big obstacle to getting a financial services overhaul that we can believe in. Dodd is good anyway, but his need to atone for that low-interest mortgage and failure to anticipate the meltdown will lead him to be very aggressive.
Harkin is one of the few single-payer advocates in the Senate.
Lincoln will get a big boost to her reelection prospects, as Arkansas farmers are going to be wary of voting out an Ag chair.
Lincoln bugs me, but I don’t want a Republican to take her seat.
That’s why I would read you instead of the Washington Post.
I knew there must be some reason other than your desire to give me a hard time.
With the recent changes to The Post’s editorial and reporting staff, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if somebody from there reads your blog, and lifted the passage for their write-up.
and yes, I don’t bother with The Post these days….I get all the scoop I need from here and a few other blogs, where actual analysis of fact and data takes place, as opposed to innuendo and rumour endemic to nearly every ‘paper I pick up….
This is a good reason, but there are many others:
The WaPo is still around?
not the first time you’ve been way ahead of the curve.
and you still can’t get a paying gig…what fools must be in charge.
You’re the Man!
Isn’t it kind of “Joke Line”-ish to give answers that cover all possibilities and then claim you were right when a third of your story is wrong?
If the Blogosphere is going to kick Joke Line for doing it, should we kick the Blogosphere for doing it too? Mind you, your other scenario there is a pretty decent argument, on its own, for why it wouldn’t happen.
Anyways. 🙂 The real difference here is that your speculative post was partially correct and the WaPo report is news of the day as opposed to telling the future. Then there is this part…
This is what? About the third or fourth inning of this particular game as Arlen Specter has yet to figure in the mix… If the switch hitter knocks it out of the park in the next elections there will still be some more musical chairs in the cards, right?
Odd take. I told you what would happen if Dodd stayed at banking, even though it was far from obvious. I also told you what would happen if he left banking.
If you want to wait until something happens to know what will happen, read the WaPo. If you want something better read me and the Guru and Kagro and The Hill and the Congressional Quarterly.
Of course I read here for the analysis. What is WaPo, anyways? Perhaps I should add /snark intead of :)?
Sestak for Senate.