I don’t put a lot of trust or faith in polls this far out from an election, but Democrats cannot be comforted by a spate of recent polls that show them losing ground to the Republicans. The results from Gallup are most troubling.
A Gallup poll released today gives the Republicans a 48 percent to 44 percent edge over Democrats in a generic congressional ballot if the 2010 elections were held today. The Republicans have been inching closer to the lead after trailing the Democrats by six points in a similar poll conducted last July.
“Over the course of the year, independents’ preference for the Republican candidate in their districts has grown,” Gallup writes in the press release.
The reporting on these polls is generally dreadful. Rarely do we see any analysis of what is causing this erosion in support. Most often, we hear that independents are turning to the GOP, but that ignores that the ranks of independents have been swollen by the exodus of former Republicans. The pool of independents is more conservative because the growth in independents has come mainly at the Republicans’ expense.
The most recent Research2000/Daily Kos poll shows the Democrats still clinging to a 35%-30% lead in the congressional generic ballot question, with independents breaking to the Dems 19%-18%. The same poll from late July, showed the Democrats leading 39%-29% overall, and 29%-19% among independents. Both polls showed Democrats preferring more Democrats in Congress by an 80%-5% margin. Back in July, Republicans wanted more Republicans in Congress by a 90%-5% margin, but that has slipped to a 82%-5% spread in this week’s poll. What I think this shows is that a lot of the movement we’re seeing is deceptive.
The Republicans have been losing ground on the Party ID question all year long, most precipitously in the July-August period of maximum teabagging.
In many polls, the GOP has reached historic lows, with the movement mainly going to either ‘independent’ or ‘undecided.’ It’s very clear that the GOP is effectively purging their ranks of moderates, and that is making the independent and undecided pools larger and more conservative. The Democratic pool has remained fairly flat. So, while we need not lose any sleep over a rightward drift in independent opinion, we do have to worry about the Democrats’ failure to win over any of these disaffected Republicans, and we have to worry about differential enthusiasm among the respective party bases. The turnout model of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races would be a disaster if repeated in the midterms.
Despite activist grumbling, there isn’t much evidence in the polling that Democrats are turning against the party or the president. Rather, there is plenty of evidence that the GOP is doing lasting damage to itself with their extremism. But that isn’t translating into bad polling numbers for individual Republican candidates, and it didn’t translate into good outcomes in this month’s elections.
Getting Democrats excited is part of the solution. But, capturing some of the disaffected Republican vote is another. Since these two goals are hard to reconcile, it’s no wonder the party on Capitol Hill seems paralyzed over health care, climate, immigration, and foreign policy.
As you put, the problem is there are more conservatives than liberals, and always has been and there are very few ways to bring them over. Independents are generally leaners though, so a base mobilization combined with the political suicide of republicans might work.
I believe the one issue most responsible for this situation is the economy, and in particular, the way the administration is handling — or not handling — the banks. Here’s my theory: of course Obama understands the political negatives, but, as with the military, he simply can’t fight the banks head on. He’s stuck with Geithner and Summers for the time being. He evidently decided a long time ago that he’d have to build up his political capital to the max, by proceeding to the largest possible successful outcomes along the paths of relatively least resistance. (It’s sobering to think that health care reform is a walk in the park compared with bank reform and reform of military policy.) He’ll go after the tougher nuts if and only if he has increased his grip. Otherwise — it’s just not possible, so why kill your existing political capital? I see the steady hand of a realist in all this. I wish more on the Left would realize, it’s not a question of what he wants to do, but of what he CAN do and exactly how he can do it. And this being the situation, the Dems in Congress — all of them — need to support him. That’s why I’m a little more optimistic about HCR than you seem to be lately.
Completely agree. he has people in place to deal with some of the more entangled issues (I’m thinking Holder) when the time is right. I’m curious about timing of Anita Dunn’s departure; wonder if it is a kind of feint, baiting them to attack more administration officials.
To whatever extent the poll reflects reality, I think indicates something that is obvious to us all: the more Democrats act like republicans, the less the public likes Democrats.
Bingo! Look at the polls. They support a public option more than they support Dems or even Obama. Looking at the numbers you’d have to realize people know the PO proposed is too weak.
Then there is the fact that health care is their number 2 issue.
Economy is #1, and Dems will need to crush some financial corps. “free market forever wet dreams” and create some jobs to get back up, IMHO.
If the poll screened for “likely voters”, I think there are lot of Democrats right now who would say they are not likely to vote in 2010.
And the reason is the betrayal in Congress of the Democratic platform, up to and including the Stupak-Pitts amendment to an anemic House healthcare reform bill.
And in my conversations locally, it is not just the netroots Dems who feel this way.
Democrats are always less likely voters.
i wrote my comment below before reading yours THD.
I can report back exactly the same thing. I know a lot of regular people who are disgusted and angry.
“Rarely do we see any analysis of what is causing this erosion in support.”
I can’t speak for everyone in the party, and pardon me for sounding like a broken record, but i will give you my point of view as someone who has voted for the democrats in every election except one (clinton, second term).
i am seeing a Party that isn’t leading. I’m watching decades of promises about health care become one watered down compromise after another. that makes me feel like i was lied to. when i get emails from OFA telling me to say “thank you to Jim Cooper”, i feel like party doesn’t really understand.
I’m seeing bailouts of big banks, and very little for main street. In fact, i watched congress shrink the stimulus (and wasn’t that supposed to be for us regular people) while there seemed to be nothing the banks wanted that was too much. That makes me feel like corporations are more important than my community.
Not everyone pays attention to the civil liberties stuff, and maybe that’s my bete noir, but I’m not seeing the restoration of the rule of law that was such a prominent feature of the campaign. That makes me feel like the Democratic Party maybe isn’t that concerned with freedom and liberty.
I could go on, but you get the gist. Meanwhile, you have the Republican rump and their enablers making a big show of protesting all this “government over-reach”, in effect riling up the independents the way Obama did in 2008.
I’m as happy as anyone that grampa and the crazy lady didn’t win, but I am damn disappointed that that seems to be all my vote accomplished.
i hope everyone reads Hunter’s new piece at Daily Kos, “The Corporate Empire Strikes Back: Corporate Dems Seek alternative to Public option. Again.”
THAT is what is driving the polls down, or at least part of it. It is not just turning their backs on decades of promises on health care, which is disgraceful enough, but they are literally jamming it right up the Democratic base’s collective nose, almost proudly. I don’t know what’s driving what seems like a pathological instinct to piss off the voters that put them in power: maybe it’s the incumbent re-election rates that Glenn Greenwald points out “rival those of the Politburo in the Leonid Brezhnev era”, but whatever it is, it smacks of hubris, makes a joke of the concept of accountability (another prominent campaign slogan for Dems), and looks incredibly ugly.
and mark my words, anyone who even bothers to listen to or watch the news sees this. What message do you think they are taking away from this?
I see all that because I hang out with progressives, but the polls simply don’t support it. Dems have the same level of support for their elected leaders that they had in July. It’s the independents who are moving to the right. But they’re moving to the right in large part because former Republicans are joining their ranks in droves. The Gallup Poll is still an outlier in terms of overall support, but it agrees with the other polls in terms of relative support for the Dems eroding only among independents.
What’s driving the polls?! You can’t be serious?! As a Democrat, (or someone who votes Democrat because of an untenable alternative) when I saw the new generic congressional Gallup poll I was shocked–that the gap wasn’t larger. As fair as the ‘do nothing’ charge against the GOP is and as crazy and racist as the teabaggers are, Independents are increasingly supportive and appreciative of them for focusing on issues that most Americans care about RIGHT NOW: Jobs and the Economy. Even if it is just lip service.
With a 10.2 unemployment rate what has the majority Party impassioned? Abortion, Gay Marriage and the Public Option! As recipes for disasters go, that’s on par with giving Al Qaeda keys and the code to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. If asked, IF ASKED, most Americans or a plurality support reproductive choice (in the first trimester at least), Gay rights (short of marriage) and the public option (as an option), but they are NOT issues that are keeping Americans up at night. They are not issues defining the quality of lives for most Americans right now. Instead of focusing on jobs and the economy (and getting health care passed and off the table to focus on jobs and the economy), Democrats are self-destructing over issues that most Americans don’t give a damn about right now!
While parents are struggling to house, feed and cloth their living and breathing kids, “progressives” have been apoplectic for almost a week about an abortion funding amendment in a health care bill that will NOT limit access to abortion and has little to NO chance of surviving in the Senate. At least the manufactured outrage over the public option can be somewhat defended because the overarching goal, shared by most Americans, is to end the immorality and unamericaness of millions of uninsured Americans. But abortion?! Gay marriage?! Right now?!
That gap should be bigger!
Simple. Democrats suck at the moment.
caving in on hcr
handing out zillions to banksters
forclosures still happening
no jobs and nothing on the table much to get any
middle class is sinking into poverty
Blue Dogs
680B for more war (we didn’t see the Blue Dogs raise hell about that little expenditure)
a weak WH
credit card “bill” that did NOTHING for consumers
Senate sucks, Reid in particular
huge anger at Wall St. and Obama still handling them with kid gloves
Pelosi even allowing Stupak amendment to come on the floor for vote
economy
It appears to many that even with majorities and the WH democrats STILL continue to cave into the rethugs and can’t get anything accomplished for we the people.
I was thinking about this issue last night and today, and one thought was that it’s a lot easier to say ‘throw the bastards out’ when you’re a year away from actually having to pull the trigger and you’re comparing a known entity vs a generic candidate.
In addition, most of these polls are pre-House vote on Health Care Reform. (Even Gallups captured only one day after the 11:00 PM Sat Night passage of HCR bill by House).
What is driving the polls? Aside of course from those that are rigged in favor of one or another viewpoint…which is the majority of them, truth be told. Find out who their owners/supporters/controllers are and you will then know what each poll is supposed to…subtly…tell the great unwashed masses who believe them.
That said?
Even the subtlest and most crafty group of poll-pushers cannot totally disguise a sea change in public opinion.
And here it is.
Again.
The beginnings of (yet another) “Throw the bums out” movement.
Why?
The real reason?
Because the problems that are facing America are largely unsolvable unless truly drastic actions are taken, and if a politician were to actually seriously considers the taking such drastic actions…all of which would threaten the ruling PermaGov…then the PermaGov’s wholly-owned media would take care of said politician within a period of several months.
Bet on it.
Career over, back in the “I wish” blogs w/the rest of us.
Catch 21 (21st Century), over and out.
So…given the plain fact that unless the entire corporate structure of the US is razed from the top down and the entire foreign policy system that has been supporting that corporate structure with both overt and covert wars of economic imperialism for well over 60 years is turned back around on itself, there will be no real “change” in how things are operating here. End of story. Cosmetic changes will work short term…as have those put into place by the Obama administration in the financial area due to the necessities of sheer emergency…but two months, six months, a year after the cosmetics are applied the veneer of the new will wear off and the same nasty old cannibalistic hag of a system will start to become visible once again.
Witness this little piece of info, among literally thousands of others:
There’s more.
Read it and weep.
Same ol’ same ol’.
New front.
But…no matter how TV/Culture/News hypnomediaed-out the slithy majority may be, they do get the drift eventually.
How?
Their wallets tell ’em.
If there is no way that an administration can change things on a basic level here without:
1-At least temporarily ruining the so-called “economy”.
and/or
2-Being run out of town an a corporate-sponsored media rail before any real effects begin to appear.
Then there will be no change.
And if there is no change then the sleeping toves will vote da bums out.
Back and forth, back and forth from RatPub to DemRat, DemRat to RatPub until the entire system collapses of its own internal rot.
Watch.
I am.
I wish that I could do more.
But when the so-called best of the best believe what they are told by such entities as ABC News?
I can only watch.
And wonder.
Have fun…
AG
P.S. I am headed for Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria and Hungary in early December. Why? Because as one wiseguy told me recently “Dey got da money now an’ we don’t.”
Hmmmmmm…
Simple, eh?
Hmmmmmm…
Wish me luck.
I’m gonna need it.
So are we all.
Bet on it.
I am headed for Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria and Hungary in early December. Why? Because as one wiseguy told me recently “Dey got da money now an’ we don’t.”
Tell the Free World that we’re still trying.
“It’s the economy, stupid”.
Nothing over rides a persons worry about a paycheck, NOTHING. The incumbents always get blamed for a bad economy, ALWAYS.
There is one glimmer of hope for the Democratic Party, and that is for the Republicans to nominate a bunch or wackos for office. IMO that is the ONLY way the Democrats don’t lose the house. And if they lose the house the immediate result will be that the Republicans and the media will call it a referendum on impeaching Obama. And he WILL be impeached. The Republicans play for keeps, the Democrats just play.
When any ‘type’ of person only goes amongst people like themselves, they get deluded into believing everyone is like them, not just those they hang with. The fact is most American’s don’t really care all that much about gay rights, or even abortion. They pay very little attention to the on going madness in Washington, no matter what the subject.
THEY CARE ABOUT THEIR PAYCHECK.
That is all.
nalbar
Economic downturns trump everything else, and the party in control earns the lion’s share of the blame. There also should be a rebound effect, which normally afflicts the party in power. And I expect that Republican obstructionism has dragged the Democrats down, much as negative campaigning does, and this hurts both parties although it hurts the Democrats more by ‘evening’ the results.
I don’t know what to make of Gallup’s results. I strongly suspect they’re an outlier, and Gallup has come under criticism for methodological problems in recent times.
Even though I don’t discount the idea of some movement, a large portion of these results is the result of likely voter models. Obama’s 2008 victory was partly attributable to high turnout, which means that polling done under likely voter models had him doing worse. The 2008 results were as much about the intensity of support for Obama and the weakness of support for McCain as the capturing of support from members of the Republican coalition.
The current political climate is not going to be favorable to the party in charge, and results are going to be depressed overall. Any candidate who does not attend to bread & butter + local issues is going to suffer at the polls. What was missed about the VA & NJ gubernatorial results was how little tolerance voters have at this point for inattention to problems at home. And this often exhibits itself as an anti-incumbent vote, which is subtly different that blaming the party in control. Voters will punish an emphasis on ideology if it’s seen as inattention to pragmatic concerns.