Eleanor Clift has five suggestions for how Barack Obama can emulate Ronald Reagan, avoid really big losses in the midterms, and set himself up for reelection. Number one on the list is getting his health care plan passed. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs predicted this morning that that project will be completed before the Sunday shows are taped next week. Obviously, it’s important that the president and the Democrats make a major push to defend and explain the legislation after it passes.
Clift’s second suggestion is pretty stupid. She wants Obama to talk to his Secretary of State about how he can connect with white working class voters. You know, those voters in Appalachia that loved Hillary so much. It’s possible for Obama to win over a decent percentage of the white working class vote, but he has to do it by winning the argument in the same way that Ronald Reagan won the argument against liberalism in the 1980-84 period. He has to convince them that the Republicans are elitists that are obstructing financial reform and that all their values talk is just a smokescreen to dupe working class people into voting against their economic interests. Obama can win over the white working class by pushing a financial reform bill in the fall, and making the Republicans filibuster it. This will help set up an argument in every senate race against adding new Republicans to the mix and also set the stage for changing the filibuster rule in the next Congress.
Clift’s third suggestion is to pass more small-bore Cash-for-Clunkers programs that connect with people in a common sense way. I actually agree with this. It’s better to pass five little jobs bills than one big one because it avoids giving the impression that you think you’ve solved the unemployment problem. High unemployment is going to persist over the next four years, so it’s vital that Congress be in a constant state of working on jobs. One big comprehensive bill (like a second stimulus) might work, but it won’t look like it is working.
Fourth, Clift says that Obama should use Bush the way that Reagan used Carter. Do you want to go back to gas lines and hyperinflation? Do you want to get humiliated by some Ayatollah? Why go back to that? And, of course, Clift is right. Bush should be tied around the Republicans’ necks like a double-weight Herbert Hoover. Why would things be better the second time around?
Finally, Clift suggests putting off climate change and immigration reform until next year. As a matter of timing, from a purely political point of view, immigration reform should be done in the fall of 2011 and spring of 2012, where it will coincide with the Republican primaries. This will force the Republicans to broadcast their fundamental racism in the brightest sunlight and continue their alienation from all but the white religionists in our society. But, in any case, the docket is already pretty full this year and immigration will probably have to wait. Climate change legislation is a bit of a conundrum. Politically, pushing the bill will probably add to the number of seats the Democrats lose this year. But, substantively, it’s better to pass something now (even if it is only supported by Lindsey Graham and Olympia Snowe among Republicans) than to wait until we have only 53-55 senators.
I like to play poker and there is one weakness the Republicans have. They do not change up their strategy. By opposing everything, they are very easy to set-up. It’s like a Texas Hold ‘Em player who always raises pre-flop regardless of how bad their cards are. They might get you to fold some good hands, but when they lose, they lose really big. The Party of No can be relied upon to filibuster everything. So, all Obama has to do is schedule the right bill for September and October. I say that bill is the financial overhaul Chris Dodd is getting ready to unveil next week. Go after the banks and megacorporations and make the Republicans filibuster all through September and October. The worst that can happen is that the regulations pass. Even better, they don’t pass and the people are furious with the Republicans.
I hope they are listening.
All good suggestions, Booman. The one thing about climate change, which you hinted at, is that beyond the politics it’s urgent that we get something passed ASAP. I have trouble swallowing the idea that we can wait on it, even if that’s politically necessary.
well, yes, because my point is that it isn’t going to get easier to pass climate change legislation next year. But we might pass it this year if Graham doesn’t make like Lucy Van Pelt with the football (which I don’t discount). However, politically, it’s a tough one because no one wants to pay more for gas or heating oil and the coal, gas, and oil industries are the most ruthless in the game.
Obama’s approach looks the same as on h/c. Dangle some carrots like off-shore drilling, clean-coal, and nuclear plants and try to neuter the opposition. Frankly, you could never pass anything without some carrots to make it possible for Begich, Landrieu, Byrd, and Rockefeller to vote with you.
Yeah, those coal/oil state Dems are definitely key. I wonder too, if Graham is really serious, if that would provide cover for some unlikely suspects – not just Snowe and Collins, but perhaps Voinovich or LeMieux (Crist’s righthand appointee in Florida – especially more likely if Crist switches parties in his Senate run).
I also expect an uproar from the old guard “No Nukes!” Left if those particular carrots really materialize. May be some strange bedfellows on both sides…
Reality intrudes here. I fully expect that Gibbs comment to come back to bite us in the ass.
It’s not like we’ve met any of the other deadlines on HCR. Why should we believe this one?
Regarding “those voters in Appalachia that loved Hillary so much.” I live in WV. I think Hillary could have carried this state in the general – she was, in fact, well liked among Dems here. I also think she would be popular here now if she had won and pursued precisely the same policies as Obama.
On the other hand, many life-long Dems here can’t stand Obama, and it has nothing to do with policy. One gentleman (D)I’ve known for 20 years told me he didn’t vote for Obama last time, and certainly never would now, and he doesn’t know anyone who would. It is about racism that is, sadly, deeply embedded in our culture.
I don’t think Obama could ever carry WV, or any other Appalachian state.
Here is my take on Ms. Clift’s suspect five.
#1. Yes Obama has invested over 14 months of his administration in Health Care Reform. He has to get it done!
#2. Consultation with Hillary as to how to win over “working class” (white ) voters is just a stupid idea. It is almost on the level of that fiasco that setup Obama to have beers in the White House garden with Sgt. Crowley and the good Professor. Those West Virginia voters and their ilk would have voted for Mickey Mouse over Obama. They are racists and during the Democratic primary their attitude was ABO (anybody but Obama). Unless Obama can do a Michael Jackson dermatological project on his skin tone, he might as well forget about these so called “working Class” voters as this is simply an euphemism for white bigots.
By offering this suggestion Clift shows a profound ignorance for racial politics in America.
#3. Cash for clunkers, mini program or the big block buster, all benefit foreign vehicle sales far more than boosting the sales of the domestic vehicle manufacturers. So where is the benefit to the taxpayer? The amount of money generated by the cash for clunkers program that leaves America and flows as revenue into other nations in Europe and Asia is infinitely more significant than the few thousand jobs that these foreign corporations provide here in the American homeland. So in my opinion Cash for clunkers should really be included with the Foreign Aid budget.
#4 President Obama’s quirky nature would NEVER ALLOW him to conduct a public campaign that was devoted to highlighting the mistakes of former president George W. Bush. This proposed strategy was brought up early in Obama’s presidency. Don’t you remember his response was that he (Obama) wanted to move on forward and he did not intend wasting time finger pointing at mistakes made by the past administration. So in the words of the old expression, “we’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it’s gonna end”.
#5 I agree with both Clift and Booman on this. Reform of the Financial sector is more of a popular HOT BUTTON item now than either climate change or immigration reform. The charges in the Obama double barrel shotgun are (a)Health Care Reform and (b) Financial Reform. My main objection to the proposed Dodd bill is that he is exempting his Connecticut Insurance Company buddies from any sort of financial reform.
“#4 President Obama’s quirky nature”
He has, however, during speeches, not just rallies, indicated that Republicans should bring new ideas, not just the same tired old ideas that have been shown not to work.
I would have to spend some time to get the exact quotes but they impressed me at the time because he so seldom slams anyone like that. So, he might be able to attack the administration without going after Bush personally, just go after the neocon policies.
The R’s are already innoculating against this strategy. They’re actively pumping the “Obama excuses” meme and the “blame Bush for your own incompetence” meme. The R’s seem to play chess. The Dems seem to play tit-tat-toe.
I am sure that they are. However, bad ideas are bad ideas. Maybe you don’t have to attack anyone in particular to show that the ideas put in motion for 8 years by the Republicans were bad ideas that did not work the way the Republicans said they would. And they still won’t work in the present time. We just need to have the courage to keep saying that old, stale ideas that don’t work will not be considered!
Good suggestions, but putting Republicans on the spot would be partisan, so it won’t be done.
#2 – I think that this is pretty stupid also. When he goes to rallies, gives speeches, surprises people at a lunch spot… does it really look like he doesn’t connect with people? All people. Here and all over the world. This was a meme that started during the primary and the press keeps repeating it like it is actually true. I think that he connects just fine!
He doesn’t connect in WV, those “working class” folks. And he never will, because they refuse to let him.
It is what it is.
Noone connects with everyone! It is sad that in WV he doesn’t connect for the reasons you stated previously but even without those reasons, you just can’t be expected to connect with everyone.
During the primary and general, it was estimated that 15% of the electorate would not vote for him because of racism. If you remove that % from the votes for other candidates and just consider the more open minded portions of the electorate, he won by a huge majority.
So, take out the ‘absolutely never’ people and the rest are the only people that you have a chance of connecting with. You can’t beat yourself, or your supporters, up because you are unable to connect with them.
oh those voters he lost in Massachusetts, because health care reform didn’t have public option were appalachian rednecks. Dream on!