I will be interested to see how many Republicans ultimately choose to vote to eliminate the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy. CNN reports that 78% of the populace, and 85% of women, support ending the discriminatory policy. That is a very healthy number and there is clearly no political benefit to opposing the change, no matter how much more fired up the GOP base is about the issue than the electorate at large.
I know it’s tempting to say that the Republicans will oppose the change in lockstep, but I don’t think that they will. On the other hand, I am most consistently wrong when I predict that the Republicans will splinter on some issue. They tend not to.
I’ll counter your prediction… I think the R’s will stay together on DADT. Anything reasonable would run counter to 2 of their dearest issues–Religion and Sex, so my feeling is that they’ll have to be dragged kicking and screaming into passage.
It’d be nice to be wrong, though
The only two Republicans that might vote for it are the two ladies from Maine. Scott Brown is already on record as a “No.” Hell, even Ben Nelson is a “No.” So that gives Republicans all the cover they need.
I am shocked that you would even consider there might be any semblance of reasonableness or common sense to the actions of the GOP right now.
justadood beat me to the punch with his comments. As far as I can tell, virtually everything being done right now by the Republicans is aimed at maximizing the rage of the base in November to obtain as much momentum as possible going forward. And there is no greater or more tried and true boogieman in the far right’s bag of tricks than the evil, pedophilia practicing, NAMBLA lovin’ deviant homosexuals.
Two GOP votes, three max if someone accidentally hits the wrong button.
Yet, zero votes would not surprise me one bit. They have proven they don’t give a hoot about what anyone outside of the teabagger crowd thinks. If Obama and the Dems want it, then they are a’gin it. It’s just that simple. It doesn’t matter what it is.
Ok, what’s your prediction for the House?
The House??
Zero Republicans. What incentive does any GOP House member have for breaking from the inevitably huge numbers of NO votes that will be cast by their colleagues? There is no political upside for any Republican to vote for this. None at all. It’s not about voting with your constituents on this issue. It is about appeasing those with the torches and pitchforks at the ready who would show up at their town hall meetings between now and November, should they vote YES.
Prediction: Zero Republicans in the House
Zero Republicans in the Senate
Plus: Defections of Democrats in both Houses.
Public opinion doesn’t matter to this Congress.
Which means that Levin better get it into the Defense Appropriations bill, and Pelosi better hope she can get the 217 Democratic votes in the House.
Might as well ask, “Where are the Log Cabin Republicans on this? What are they doing?”
Might as well ask, “Where are the Log Cabin Republicans on this? What are they doing?”
Such things exist? They are even more impotent than HRC.
As you’ve so often pointed out, Boo, politics is local, so you can’t predict congressional votes from national polling. It seems like kind of a given that districts/states with GOP congressional reps will not reward any kind of “pro-gay” votes. Although Maine is inexplicable enough that getting them might be reasonable. I’m surprised at Scott Brown, though — hard to see any political advantage in going against DADT repeal, or to intuit any personal ideological motives on his part.
Hate to say it, but I think the poll cited is flawed. It just doesn’t mesh with all the other polls. Only 15% of all US women want to end DADT, or don’t care? That would make gay-bashing a totally futile political ploy, and it’s pretty clear that much of the country it’s still quite effective.
According to an AP story today, Rep Mike Pence predicts House Republicans will unify in opposition to repealing DADT.
According to Matt Yglesias, Mike Pence is one of the dumbest members of Congress.
So you could conclude that because Pence is one of the dumbest members of Congress, he’s wrong and House Republicans will split on DADT.
Or you could conclude that because House Republicans elected one of the dumbest members of Congress to one of their top leadership posts, Pence knows his caucus and is right.