There’s a difference between trying to win the game and trying to change the way the game is played. They aren’t mutually exclusive goals, but they require different strategies. Think about a baseball player. Maybe he doesn’t hit particularly well when he is behind in the count. So, he develops a tendency to swing at pitches early in the count in an effort to avoid striking out. After the scouts notice this tendency, pitchers stop throwing them hittable pithes early in the count. The hitter then has to adjust his strategy by laying off the few hittable pitches he sees so that the scouts will reevaluate the proper strategy for getting them out. It’s a season-long, even career-long battle of shifting strategies. But none of it has much practical application to any specific at-bat, where the goal remains to avoid making an unproductive out.
To apply this to politics, each issue is like a different pitcher. One pitcher may throw very hard, forcing you to cheat on the fastball but making you more susceptible to off-speed pitches. Another pitcher may use trickery, making the batter wait longer before deciding to swing. Likewise, a president and the leaders in Congress may pursue dramatically different strategies on financial reform than they used on health care. And climate legislation may be pursued with another set of tactics. Yet, what happens on one bill will have an impact on what happens on the next, just like one at-bat influences how both the pitcher and the batter approach the next one. Political strategies are crafted in large part by what the majority expects the minority to do in reaction. But, in America, one thing the majority must do (to overcome the filibuster rule) is to divide the minority. The need to accomplish this on every piece of legislation creates a path-dependency. But this path-dependency should not be confused with some ideological commitment to Third Way politics. Despite large majorities in Congress, the Democrats don’t have the ability to overcome a kind of consensus on the way government and businesses should share responsibility for meeting societal goals. That consensus creates a path dependency that means that the Stimulus Bill can only be so big, that health care must be provided through private insurance companies, and that there are real limits on how fast we can reduce carbon emissions.
When the Obama administration seeks to pass legislation to address these issues, they face a situation where they will either get on base or they will make an out. They might hit a single, get hit by a pitch, or smash a grand slam, but their course of action is still limited by constraints that they must recognize and anticipate. Yet, even as they go about the concrete goal of passing legislation at the 60-vote threshold, what they do and how they do it can mold the playing field to their advantage in the next at-bat. So, it’s important to try to shift public perceptions your way over time so that the consensus in Congress shifts over time. If you want to pursue progressive goals in an ideological way, you don’t do that by trying and failing to pass legislation. You do it by having success after success until the pitchers are afraid to oppose you. Think about Barry Bonds. In 2004, pitchers walked him a record 232 times. Yes, I know he was cheating, but set that aside for the purposes of the example. Now, to take this to a more mundane level, progressives may or may not agree on ends, let alone means. To what purpose are we playing this game? With health care, were we looking to create the most efficient balance between cost and quality, or were we trying to give immediate help to those with preexisting conditions and those who are priced out of access to health care. What if those two goals are mutually exclusive? What side do we come down on?
There’s a long term struggle to change the constraints on policy options that is an important progressive goal. But helping people in need right now, not in some indeterminate future, is also a progressive goal. It’s a goal familiar to every church that operates a soup kitchen or an addiction recovery program. It’s a goal familiar to issue activists for affordable housing, access to health care, and against predatory lending. That is the place where the president is coming from. Contrary to Paul Rosenberg, Obama did not turn his back on God or progressive politics when he disowned Jeremiah Wright. Rosenberg fashions himself a ‘populist’ progressive and contrasts that with ‘corporate’ progressives. It’s generous for him to allow the rest of us who don’t see the world in his myopic way the continued use of the term ‘progressive,’ but he doesn’t understand the difference between practical progressivism and ideological conflict.
Third Way politics as practiced by the DLC is an electoral and fundraising strategy as well an affirmative ideological stance. It pursues its policies because it wants to, not because of existing constraints. As such, Third Way politics is the enemy of progressive policies of all types, whether they be populist, practical, urban, or academic. The difference can be seen in what Evan Bayh pursues versus what the administration pursues. For DLC types like Bayh aren’t practicing defensive politics but a coherent set of policies that they actually believe in.
It’s this failure to differentiate between the Art of the Possible and corporatist ideology that creates no end of bad analysis on the left.
What if those two goals are mutually exclusive? What side do we come down on?
Neither. You go to the blogosphere and loudly deny the premise. You anathematize anyone who believes they are in fact mutually exclusive. Done properly, your hit count goes through the roof, and you wake up in Keith Olberman’s green room.
lol.
Except the goals in this example were not mutually exclusive — they were the same thing. Maybe the political lines couldn’t be reconciled, but the policy goals were identical. That’s precisely what’s so maddening about the whole spectacle. By sacrificing part of one goal we also weaken the other one.
“So, it’s important to try to shift public perceptions your way over time so that the consensus in Congress shifts over time. “
And I believe Obama is doing just that. By the time he’s done America really will be a center right nation.
oh please.
Huh. So I ask you, when Obama is busily adding millions of new customers to private insurance companies, protecting wall street’s “savvy businessmen”, outsourcing space to the private sector, assassinating Americans, proudly proclaiming he has gone against his base… how can people conclude anything else?
it’s terrible that Obama banned recision, bans pre-existing conditions, imposes a medical loss ratio, and extends medical insurance to 30 million uninsured Americans, and funds Bernie Sanders network of health clinics. So terrible that the ACP (Internal Med. Physicians) calls it a historic step forward.
But genius “leftists” know legislative strategy so well, that they can declare it much worse than the magic fairy dust plan that we coulda had if only Obama had saved some fucking box tops.
Don’t know what you mean about box tops, they don’t have much to do with insurance.
You are damn right we could do it better. We have been right every fucking time since 2001. You know as well as I do that ACP and other organizations (Pharma) were simply bought off.
It’s not terrible, but it’s not moving the country left and it’s not anything difficult. Even the fuckers in the GOP would have voted to ban the pre-existing conditions on their own. And exchanges? EXCHANGES? Fuck them. You think they’re going to do anything? All they do is try to match people with more private insurance companies. You think the tax credit subsidies will be enough to pay for exchanges? Haha.
I don’t know that ACP was bought off at all. Care to illuminate?
“”So, it’s important to try to shift public perceptions your way over time so that the consensus in Congress shifts over time. “”
Which is why the so-called progressives work as hard as they can to convince the public that (a) political activism does not work and (b) there is a vast murky conspiracy that will always betray “us”.
This will lead to profit in step 3, I mean, radical change in step 3 because of some mechanism that Paul Rosenberg knows but has not yet figured out how to simplify in terms that might be understandable to the little people.
Great great post.
Sports analogies are demonically tempting but always bogus because they rely on micro-habitats that have nothing to do with the real world. This one goes beyond that in ways too boring to list. For one, the real situation is more akin to a game where the outfield wall is raised 8 feet when the Cubbies are at bat and lowered when the Dodgers are up, the umpires see every close call as a strike for the Cubbies, and the concession holders get to change the rules based on what will sell more hot dogs and beer.
Anyway, right now your prescription doesn’t seem to be working. Dems keep making base hits, even doubles and triples, and yet their polling numbers keep sinking. I think part of the problem is not that they lack pragmatic strategy but that they’re too scared they might bean the opposing pitcher. A strategy centered on base hits is the textbook case of those little plans that have no magic to stir mens’ blood. That’s why Babe Ruth is still idolized while nobody knows who last year’s top bunter was.
There’s no inherent conflict between the goals of activists and ideology. Short term and long term have to go together. You feed the hungry but you also organize for better distribution of wealth. In most cases, your long term goals seek to put your short term efforts out of business. I wish I saw more of that from Obama and the Dems. If they’re striving toward fundamental change through a series of base hits, they sure don’t know how to sell the plan. Right now Obama could use a lot more Jeremiah Wright and a lot less Carville and Blanche Lincoln.
Part of the divide is also in analysis of the public sentiment. I don’t think the public is in love with Jeremiah Wright.
They’re not in love with Blanche Lincoln either, obviously. Anyway, I was using Wright as the totem for somebody with the ability to show some passion and rally people to a vision that goes beyond vote counting.
But a mild reformer like Halter seems more plausible as a candidate than a barn burner.
Styles of persuasion change.
Of the Rosenberg lefties is that it’s white “progressives” who are the “base” of the party and not black people and union members. As if.
You forgot “college-educated”, as in “white college-educated progressives”
But what happens when the art of the possible and corporatist ideology consistently produce the same results? How will you separate out what is possible from what is just corporate ideology?
It is similar to the question, “How do you know when the totalitarian door is finally slammed shut?”. This is an issue I have thought about for forty years–ever since I read Milton Mayer’s They Thought They Were Free: The Germans 1933-45. Despite the Godwinesque appearance of the question, it really is a perennial question for democracies. If you are eternally vigilant, what exactly are you looking for?
I don’t think it is personal motivations. And that is where the part of the progressive movement goes off into bad analysis. Leaders tend to be enabled or constrained by the personal ambitions of their subordinates, especially their direct reports. Those constraints rarely are expressed in front of the leader but are manifested by miscommunication down the line organization, interference in colleague’s work, and inactivity on assignments in disagreement. A network analysis of the nodes of authority in the federal government will give a perspective on how many interactions beyond any President’s attention can create inertia or contrary policies. The devil is always in the details, but Presidents are not tasked with the details — just ask Jimmy Carter.
My impression is that most of the people analyzing government on the left have never worked in a huge organization or been privy to the way that decisions are made in organizations.
Leadership now as in 1933 depends to a very large degree on the consent of the followers. And the means available to obtain that consent, inertia and the persistence of role expectations being the most widespread.
If your most fervent desire is to hit a knuckleball to the opposite field, you will be frustrated while facing Nolan Ryan because he doesn’t throw knuckleballs. Whether the batter is Obama, Bush, or Kucinich, the end result will not be that a knuckleball is hit to the opposite field.
Obama does not share that idiosyncratic goal. He wants to get hits, not change the pitcher so that he can do things that are currently not possible. That can merit some criticism, but it must be in context.
Giving people access to health care was simply more important to him than destroying the private insurance industry. That doesn’t mean he prefers Third Way politics. It means that he knows how to hit.
And who told Obama what was possible on health care — a bunch of direct reports, Senators, members of the House, healthcare industry lobbyists,….all with their own agendas. Obama’s personal political philosophy or ideological position is irrelevant.
The broader question is whether citizens matter any more. And how do you know whether your answer to that question is true or false.
I agree with the comment above. Arguing by using sports analogies is likely to miss the point. Elections are more than horse races. Deliberation in Congress is more than an idle game.
But since you are thinking in that analogy, this is where I disagree.
The issue is not so much changing the pitcher as changing his batting strategy to do things that are currently impossible. If his batting strategy (and that of the rest of the team) changes to get more hits, the manager of the opposing team will change the pitcher.
The difficulty (a paradox?) is how do you use the way Washington currently works to change the way Washington currently works. Or any promise to “change the way Washington works” just meaningless campaign rhetoric? A lot of folks are are believing that there is no way to get there anymore. That’s where the real divide among progressives is.
Less you mistake the above paragraph as my personal position on what is possible, look at my sig. What is possible is determined by what happens in 192,480 precincts. That is democratic populism.