Greg Sargent and I are in complete agreement that the Republicans’ strategy of saying ‘no’ to everything is working beautifully for them. It can be seen in any number of polls, testing any number of public attitudes. People are pissed off at the government and they’re unusually ticked -off with their own representatives. Most representatives are Democrats, so they are more at risk. The more risk they feel, the more skittish they become, and our unity is diminished, making it even easier to block or water down the president’s agenda.
The anger does not appear to be ideologically consistent or focused. While the health care bill is increasing in popularity it still has a net-negative rating. On the other hand, more than 60% of the people want the government to extend unemployment benefits. There’s anxiety that the government is doing too much and that it is not doing enough.
Now, I’m going to be unusually blunt here. These midterms are not actually elections that the Democrats want to win. Political fortunes move like a pendulum. It’s simply not possible to win four elections in a row in a two-party system. And the elections we really want to win are in 2012. Winning now would make that impossible. What we want is to lose, but lose modestly. That might seem like a strange thing to say, but you have to think of the big picture. In the 1982 midterm elections, Ronald Reagan’s Republican Party lost 27 seats in the House, while the Senate ratio remained unchanged. Two years later, he won 49 states in his reelection bid against Walter Mondale. Reagan benefitted in the long-term because they lost in 1982. I’m not overly concerned about losing a couple dozen marginal House seats, although I’d be grateful for a repeat of that no-net-change in the Senate.
What worries me is that we’ll have something more akin to the 1994 midterms which pretty much ruined the promise of Bill Clinton’s presidency (before he delivered the final self-inflicted death blow). So, we have to consider why the public isn’t putting two-and-two together and blaming the Republicans for government inaction on key issues of concern. While the administration’s message effort deserves some blame, and the media deserves much more, it’s also a problem that there are precious few Democrats out there explaining the Party of No strategy, the procedures they are using to obstruct, and what would be passed if Republicans (and some conservative Democrats) were not standing in the way. Even more importantly, there are almost no Democrats discussing the incredible amount that has been achieved despite these tactics..
The progressive media excels at pointing out Republican hypocrisy and malfeasance, but they don’t do so well with explaining how and why it works. And, if they don’t hype what’s being accomplished but instead pile-on the administration with their criticism, it appears like everyone is a critic of the president and nothing has been accomplished. But that’s actually a key ingredient in the success of the Party of No strategy.
By forcing Obama to seek his bill-passing votes from a small group of the most conservative and endangered Democrats (like Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson), the Republicans make progressives angry with the outcomes of legislation. By preventing the extension of unemployment benefits or stimulus that would improve the jobs situation, they make people upset with the ineffectiveness of the government in power. If you want to aid them in their task, you’ll ignore all the good things that have been done and join the chorus of the frustrated and disappointed. If you want to dance to their tune, by all means, join the bitch-chorus.
But there is a story to be told that’s positive. I’ll keep telling it, because too few others seem to be willing to do so. We can keep our losses manageable, and even leverage them into a two-term presidency and better quality majorities in the second-term. But we put that all at risk by naval-gazing and failing to understand what the Party of No strategy is meant to do, and why it is working.
It amazes me that the graph of jobs lost during the Bush years and gained since Obama took office is not plastered everywhere with the accompanying graph of the deficit under Bush and since with the portion due to their wars and tax cuts for the rich highlighted. Just as in Texas they are rewriting history. The tax fairies are running with promises of trickle down wealth. We know who our real enemy is. Any so-called progressive who blogs & whines ad nauseam about all the ways that Obama is just Bush lite is no more than a useful tool of the party of no. Divide and conquer. I find you, Steve Benen, Balloon Juice, Ezra and Al voices of reason. Thanks for your good sense.
I would also add Bob Cesca as being a pretty reasonable voice.
Yes. Bob Cesca. Love him.
I agree with you Booman. It seems that the ‘stimulus’ that didn’t work has created more jobs than GW did in 8 years.
Every Dem should have their list of accomplishments to verbalize everytime they can. Maybe different lists depending on the audience but they need to be touting the many accomplishments ALL the time. They need to do it so much that the MSM can’t ignore them, and then they need to do it some more.
Maybe we should make the list for them and a bunch of us email it to them every day for the next 3 months!
And charts are especially good!
You forgot one thing. Very few Democrats feel invested in selling their accomplishments. I leave it to you to figure out why.
Because Obama broke my heart?
No .. because of people like Ben Nelson .. they are DINO’s .. waiting for the next check from corporate interests
“While the administration’s message effort deserves some blame, and the media deserves much more, it’s also a problem that there are precious few Democrats out there explaining the Party of No strategy, the procedures they are using to obstruct, and what would be passed if Republicans (and some conservative Democrats) were not standing in the way. Even more importantly, there are almost no Democrats discussing the incredible amount that has been achieved despite these tactics.”
But this problem with messaging seems to be a continuing problem with Democratic strategies. There was terrible messaging during the health care battle, but also during most of the Bush years, when it was basically left to progressive bloggers and advocacy groups to formulate a critique of Bush and Republican rule.
I know you don’t like Lakoff’s views about framing and all, but I do think he is on the ball when he advocates the need to create a cohesive narrative that ties together all the different Democratic policy initiatives, and then repeating that narrative tirelessly and effectively as new issues (e.g. oil spills, financial crises, mining disasters, etc.) arise.
I agree, but do you really think that progressives or Democrats can ever get on the same page together to push this narrative. I think we need a pretty big whip to herd this breed of cats.
Perhaps not all “progressives or Democrats.” How about starting with the Whitehouse, OFA, DNC, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, etc, assuming they at least are on the same page.
I think Lakoff’s work is important, but I think it is misused and misunderstood by a lot of people.
It should be a piece of the puzzle, not the puzzle itself.
For me, it’s far more important that people band together in social networks and go out and register voters and get soft voters out to the polls than that we try to change the perception of people about the issues of the day. But that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try to change perceptions. It’s a matter of priorities,
I grow weary of the argument that we’d win elections if only we packaged our ideas better. There’s no reason not to package our ideas better but that alone won’t win elections.
I think you’re right, but I also see this disastrous worldview that dominates the beltway, whereby politicians and pundits scream about the deficit and debt as an excuse to deny aid to the unemployed and to shy away from investing in jobs and infrastructure.
Well, stimulus is one area where I have no criticism of the bitch-fest. Atrios, for example, is entirely right to harp on this issue and not let up. But it’s critical to understand who you are trying to convince. If you’re asking the administration to make a high-profile failure a part of their election strategy, you’re way off-base. If you are doing all you can to convince people to vote for stimulus, then you’re on solid ground.
No, I’m not “asking the administration to make a high-profile failure a part of their election strategy,” but does giving so much credence to the deficit issue really help Democratic chances? What is the benefit of the deficit commission, if it is going to advise cutting what seems to be necessary spending? Why not a jobs commission instead?
I understand being weary of that argument, but that seems to be part of a fundamental explanation for the perpetual defensiveness of the Democrats.
If I read correctly today, the White House’s jobs strategy for this election is to say that they’ve saved 3 million jobs. This, while it is true and is something to be thankful for, is pitifully weak argument in our current political climate.
Telling people that things would be even worse if not for the Dems is like telling a person who has lost their leg moments earlier that they still have their other leg. Yes, it’s true; yes, it’s something to be very thankful for; but it’s too goddamn soon to be gloating about that while most people are still adjusting to the shock and pain of their losses. Saying things could be worse sounds, to a lot of people, like a fucking cop out. It belittles the gravity of the situation that faces a great many people we hope will be voting Democrat in the fall.
yes, and that is the logic of the Party of No strategy. You can only get so far by saying the other side would be worse. And, even if you talk about your accomplishments, if they are not enough, they’re not enough. But you have to talk about your accomplishments. To fail to do so, and to, in fact, do the opposite, is political malpractice.
Agreed.
Not only do I 100% agree, but I’ve been saying it as well for weeks now. If only the dipshit chicken little brigade over at DK would wake up and see how they are being totally played.
But no, they’ll continue to own the rec list with non-stop griping. I’m sure a GOP-run House and a Senate with a slim Dem majority will work WONDERS for progressive policy.
I agree with all that except one thing: a lot of progressives that are bitching right now and generally making things worse in your opinion were the very first people to pick up on the “Party of No” strategy. People like Digby predicted this oh, about a day after the election. Progressives, particularly in the blogosphere, were the first to recognize that the modern GOP is not a good faith actor when it comes to legislation. You can’t trust them, you can’t work with them, you need to figure out ways to force their hand politically. Its very cynical and its certainly not the best way to get things done in our consensus and compromise based institutions, but it was largely accurate. Obama and his people were the ones who came in and telegraphed to the world that things would be different from the Bush era and that everyone was going to finally get along. Obama and the more moderate of his advisors were the last people in Washington to recognize the party of no strategy, not progressives.
I agree.
I would also add those who are trying to tell this story shouldn’t be intimidated by those calling us Obamabots, cultists or whatever asshole name they have for us at the current moment. I fell victim to that. Telling this story so much, you feel the urge to at least criticize him sometime.
But I like the term “bitch chorus” and I will use it. It’s so very accurate. Everything from unemployment to the Oil Spill is somehow Obama’s fault. I don’t get that and never will.
And again, if Obama showed he personally shared the goals of progressives he would get a lot more passes. But he refuses to do so because he does not actually seem to share them. That doesn’t preclude him from doing things that improve peoples lives, but it means he is operating at a great disadvantage because progressive ideas are the right ones.