Obama issued a responsible statement on Egypt. Except, he kind of lit a match by pledging support for the effort to democratize, and for people’s right to assemble and protest. If we’re going to get on the right side of history tomorrow, that’s great. But I had to laugh when he said America will always stand for human rights. What about the last thirty years in Egypt?
More importantly, what replaces Mubarak and how does that impact the peace treaty with Israel and our bilateral relations with Cairo?
Interesting times.
If he hadn’t included that bit, then there would be uproar about him not mentioning human rights.
At some point don’t we have to give credit when someone is trying to right a wrong (even if for now it’s just lip service). There isn’t much Obama can do about the last 30 years. He can only move forward and try to bring some sort of change to the future.
I mean, Sen. Kerry is on CNN right now pussy-footing around the elephant in the room and saying that there is a way forward that “respects the leadership [Mubarak{ has provided for the last 30 years.”
His leadership has been to bring the hammer down on anyone who professes any kind of political Islam and to look the other way on the Palestinian question. We didn’t want another Iran or another Arab-Israeli war, and we have succeeded in those goals up until now, but with almost no regard for the aspirations and human rights of the Egyptian people. Our policy was perhaps prudent, but I still have to laugh at the absurdity of Obama’s words.
That being said, obviously you are correct.
Hey Booman,
This post from a TNR contributor was very intersting to me, admittedly, my knowledge of Egyptian politics is sub-par, but it seemed like good analysis to me.
What do you and anyone else more knowledgeable than I think?
Five Things to Understand About the Egyptian Riots
unfortunate title on the part of TNR, they are demonstrations
he stood up for American values, yet, let’s not be delusional…there is no secular person in the wings…we dealt with the devil and backed him for years.
Muslim Brotherhood government here we come.
Booman, you never heard the fairy tale, “and then in the first month of the 30th year,…” I think Obama laid down some conditions that Mubarek would be smart to say to his family “that villa in Switzerland might be a good place to retire this month.”
Interesting times for sure.
The villa is in Saudi Arabia, and according to reports it is sitting ready.
Spare yourself a lot of pain of US pundits who know nothing about Egyptian history and politics. I’ve been watching Al Jazeera London streaming all day. It’s wonderful. http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
yes, watched it this morning. great interviews and discussions
.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Ya think?
Israel fears radical takeover in Egypt
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4020585,00.html
Mubarak is the devil they know…and they know the devil in the wings is the Muslim Brotherhood..
the Muslim Brotherhood with a military cache of weapons sent over by America.
lawdhammercy.
I don’t see any signs of the Brotherhood. Protesters seem to want freedom. Not freedom to live under another extremist regime.
Maybe even freedom to support Palestine.
Muslim Brotherhood group is a very minor player in all this from all the interviews of Egyptians on the ground and in London that I saw in all day coverage on Al Jazeera.
yes. one young man interviewed said there were plenty of liberal potential leaders there in Egypt. El Baradei, it was pointed out, should have arrived sooner if he wanted to play a role. no one mentioned Muslim Brotherhood. don’t think the ppl on the street have in mind a right wing replacement gov.
Only ones mentioning the Brotherhood are the American media.
maybe they are thinking of Iran in 1979.
Anyone know if Gene Sharp’s writings about how to nonviolently overthrow a dictatorship have been translated into Arabic? And whether any of the opposition in Egypt has used/is using Sharp’s tactics and strategies?
.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Thanks, Oui.
I thought of it when I saw video of protesters on the streets of Cairo welcoming the military, and heard that Mubarak had sent the presidential guard to protect the state television station.
Sharp writes about the importance of control of those two institutions (military, broadcast media) for revolutionaries seeking to nonviolently overthrow a regime. And we know “From Dictatorship to Democracy” was studied and used by leaders in several recent revolutions, including Ukraine.
It will be interesting to see what happens today (and in coming days) in Egypt: how will the army and its leadership treat the protesters (e.g., will they allow an assembly in Tahrir Square in Cairo?), and who guards/controls state-run television?
So, for example, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi—minister of defense, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and commander of the presidential guard (according to Wikipedia)—who recently visited the United States, is someone to watch.
Obama wasn’t talking to anyone but Mubarak with his statement tonight.
Here’s how it played out:
One way or the other both our bilateral relations with Egypt and our bilateral relations with Israel are hosed until the relationship with Egypt gets re-established. The nature of that new relationship with Egypt will drive the relationship with Israel. Eighty million Muslims sitting astride the Suez Canal are more important than whatever proportion of the 8 million citizens of Israel are driving the Netanyahu government, no matter how many relatives they have in the US. If Egypt turns like Iran in 1979 (not the likeliest outcome at all), the US is driven more strongly into its relationships with Israel and Saudi Arabia–neither of which strongly communicate “democracy” to the Arab street.
American backing for overthrow?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas
-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
.
WikiLeaks: Viewing cable 08CAIRO2572, APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
2008? that was bush administration, before Obama’s Cairo speech
Some interesting things about the cable.
(1) The embassy analyst thought the idea that a coalition could threaten Mubarak was laughable.
(2) The cable provided a clear outline of the plans that have unfolded.
(3) The embassy had contact with members of the movement and even sent the one member quoted to training in the US.
v. interesting. will look at it again. watching al jazeera now. they say police have evaporated from the streets of Cairo. also, a young man blogger based in Johannesburg that they interviewed said the football clubs playing an important role, iirc more than any political group (in response to q’s about El Baradei), el Baradei would be an acceptable interim prez, but ppl not happy that he was out of the country until yesterday.
yes, v. interesting what you say about the cable. as you pointed out in another comment the succession issue is a key factor in the timing of this.
C’mon, folks…
2008?
1998?
2011?
1976?
The U.S. PermaGov remains the same. Its individual policies and tactyics may change as do circumstances, but its strategic underpinnings…economic imperialism by any means necessary…remain the same.
Plus…
Our so-called “leaders?”
Bush II?
Obama?
Clinton?
Bush I?
And so on?
They are relatively unimportant regarding long-term strategy. Their job is to spew the best bullshit that they can manage in its support. If any of them ever publicly voiced even a hint of disapproval regarding said economic imperialist strategies, they would be rendered inoperative so fast that the Clinton and Nixon takedowns would look like children’s tea parties in comparison.
Bet on it.
AG
The Muslim Brotherhood probably wouldn’t abrogate the treaty with Israel. They probably would open the border to the Gaza though which might provoke Israel.
Democracy in the ME means a huge weakening of the position of Israel and big weakening of US influence. Both have to pay for their actions and tainted images in that region and democratically elected government cannot ignore the overwhelming feelings of their peoples as unelected but well armed and funded dictators like Mubarak can.
It is time to either back the people and acdept the price for past indiscretions or to support even more autocratic and violent regimes
ok,
so Lawrence O has an old Clintonite on who’s saying that the Obama Admin’s statement fromt he pres is a little late, and should have been done earlier.
Damn it was 48 HOURS AGO that the protest shit hit the fan. Yeah it took what 1 week for the obama admin to get it’s footing during the Iran revolts. It took 48 hours this time. Uh what good would it have been for them to release a statement before then?
this is ridiculous. is EVERY former Clintonite back-stabbers? Damn, I commend HRC as Sec of State, but damn I’m tired of the minions who are NOT apart of the admin and probably not in the loop coming on MSNBC every damn time.
I’m sorry, but I like that the Obama admin doesn’t just go “all in” and “balls to the wall” like BushCo would. If Bush was here, we’d have troops in Georgia, Tunisia, Egypt, Iran…I like a little contemplation before excess action.
The falling house of cards:
AIPAC’s Egypt Miscalculation
EXCELLENT:
Israel and its American friends want to stop the Egyptian `earthquake’
Read the whole thing:
http://mondoweiss.net/2011/01/israel-and-its-american-friends-want-to-stop-the-egyptian-%E2%80%98ear
thquake%E2%80%99.html#comments
No matter what happens, in 10 years there’ll be a Coptic ‘Little Cairo’ in every major American city.
Someone had better start planning for the evacuations now. A new regime will want something to stabilize around, and the Copts will do nicely. The old regime, if it survives at all, will need a scapegoat.
A new addition to your local ethinic-restaurant scene, either way.