It’s hard to credit every report out of Libya, but if even half of what is being reported is true, it looks very much like Muammar al-Gaddafi is soon going to be either hanging from a lamp post or flying to some luxurious exile. It also looks like his options for the locale of that luxurious exile are diminishing quickly. I know that Saudi Arabia let Idi Amin live out his august years in peace, so it has to be considered a possible hidey-hole, but the nature of these revolutions puts a lot of pressure on the Saudis. Gaddafi has ordered the murder of a lot of people and most of the world will want him to answer for it at the Hague. It should be remembered that the last time the Saudis faced a real threat of revolution was 1979, and they did not offer the Shah of Iran sanctuary, forcing him to skip around from Egypt to Morocco to the Bahamas to Panama. And the Shah had a lot more powerful friends than Gaddafi. He may be nearing the point where Pyongyang is his only option. And, in those circumstances, a lamp post might seem like the more pleasant option.
P.S. I love this sign.
Libyans hate him, other dictators hate him. He has nowhere to go. So he and his sons will have to fight to the end. It’s going to be bloody.
According to reports, he’s losing the military region by region. In BenGhazi, the military flipped yesterday. The Tuareg tribes in the south of the country near the southern oil fields have flipped and given a Gaddafi a deadline for leaving office with the threat to cut off the flow of oil. Turkey and other countries have been airlifting nationals, who work in the oil fields, out of Libya as fast as they can get flights in securely. The UK and the US have made very strong statements, much stronger than anything made during the Egyptian revolution. The EU foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels. And Gaddafi’s son was on television belatedly peddling the carrot of dialog and the stick of civil war and chaos. Demonstrators waved their shoes. Mercenaries from Chad, Somalia, and Sudan were brought in by Gaddafi over the last months as he hedged his bets about the loyalty of the military. Captured mercenaries have been shown in YouTubes on Aljazeera. Reports of mercenaries using anti-aircraft fire on demonstrators are reminiscent of the Somali “technicals” that caused Poppy Bush to send the US military to Mogadishu. And lend credence to the reports of the source of the mercenaries.
Events seem to be moving very fast in the Middle East. My SWAG is that Gaddafi is gone within 72 hours; the timing depends on how rapidly the military flips and how long it takes them to put down the action of the mercenaries.
If Gaddafi survives to go into exile, my guess is that he goes to Venezuela. Certainly, nowhere in the Middle East, not even the Retired Dictators Club in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, is secure any more.
If I had to guess what Hillary Clinton and the State Department are doing, except making increasingly strong statements as the protests escalate and spread, it is this: calming down Israel so that that government neither goes pre-emptive nor reinvades Lebanon; trying to figure out how to unwind Saudi Arabia, given the movements in Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and the new government in Egypt.
Except Israelis won’t be attacking anyone soon, without Mubarak at their back.
Somehow I don’t think Gaddafi will be going to Venezuela. What an evil man.
we live in interesting times, people.
We could find a nice little cell for that murdering bastard at Gitmo. He sent people to blow up airliners and was never held accountable.
If i had a webcam, you’d see me rubbing my index finger back and forth across my thumb, like a bow. that’s the international sign of the world’s smallest violin, playign the world’s saddest song (“my heart bleeds purple piss for thee o my love”) for Moammar.
or to put it bluntly: fuck him.
Your little violin has an orchestra of similar violins making a very loud sound.
Wasn’t Mr. Shah also in the US for a stint? Or didn’t that go through?
Yes, he had cancer surgery in New York, and then spent some time in San Antonio before Panama agreed to take him off our hands.
Some recent developments. Oil companies are using helicopters to fly their staffs from the oil fields directly to Malta, bypassing an exit visa issue.
Two Libyan Air Force fighters also landed in Malta and the pilots and crew asked for political asylum. They said the Gaddafi ordered their squadron (based outside Tripoli) to bomb civilians in BenGhazi. And they had conversations with Maltese authorities regarding secret information believed to be accounts of what the Libyan regime is doing. Maltese authorities are passing that information to the EU foreign office.
And the Libyan Deputy Ambassador to the UN has defected and called for Gaddafi to step down after the Ambassador was called to talk to Ban Ki-Moon. The line from the Deputy Ambassador is “we don’t work for the regime; we work for the Libyan people”.
This is really something, or as Joe Biden would say, a BFD
maybe. Recently, didn’t mr. biden insist that Mubarek “is not a dictator”?
He’s since rescinded those remarks.
That is a great sign. perhaps can replace the moran sign for a change of pace. slightly OT but in the spirit of the moment some Egypt and WI news, evidently ppl all over the world including Egypt are ordering pizza for the WI protesters
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439×460129
i assume you mean you love the “you such a jerk” sign and not the one in the upper right that says (in arabic) “leave, you criminal”
ppl in FL might find a use for that one
now that I know what it says, I love that one, too.
http://www.juancole.com/
It’s reported that Gaddafi is going to speak. Sonny Boy has already appeared denying that civilians were attacked in BenGhazi. The military aircraft were only trying to destroy ammunition dumps in BenGhazi and they missed. Likely story.
Sonny Boy was the heir apparent and has taken the Omar Suleiman/Baghdad Bob role.
If Gaddafi himself goes on TV tonight and says he’s not resigning, he’s gone tomorrow. As he wakes up to a de facto no-fly zone.
Over 200 people have died to change Libya.
I am hoping the violence stops.
Obama has done this right.
Violence never stops. Gandhi found that out at the end.
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That sign is classic. The dude holding it is so blase– remarkable considering the potential ramifications! I fear that Gaddafi will not go down without a serious bloodbath. The sign should say “you so Shameless.”
Tanks are in the streets of Bahrain; protests have broken out in Libya, Iran and Yemen; and Iranian warships are attempting to pass through the Suez Canal, resulting in the ratcheting up of tensions with Israel.
As unrest sweeps the Middle East, some 1,000 exhibitors and an expected 50,000 visitors are descending on Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates next week to attend the region’s largest military trade show, IDEX, the International Defense Exhibition and Conference.
Read more: http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org
That was a quote from Military Technologies. Grabbed it from another blog.
http://www.military-technologies.net/2011/02/20/arms-suppliers-prepare-for-middle-easts-biggest-defe
nse-show/
Whatever way people want to try and spin it, it is an arab awakening and things will never be the same again. Where it heads though is hopefully in the hands of the people of the region. That can only be a good thing.
Gaddafi doesnt really have many places he can run, which is good and bad as it means the death toll we have seen so far could increase. He is finished by the looks of it.
The Saudis wont give a toss about the fall of Gaddafi as he isnt one of their own and he fits their line that it is Arab dictatorial republics that are having problems. The Saudi worry is Bahrain where they have said they will defend the Sunni king to the death. Not sure they will though