It’s interesting that Hillary Clinton simultaneously says that she has “the best job she can ever have,” and that she is definitely quitting that job after the 2012 elections. I’m sure everyone can parse that out for themselves, but it does demand a certain degree of speculation. One possibility is that she simply doesn’t want the job past the election, whether because it’s exhausting, because she doesn’t like working in the administration, or because she actually does plan on running for president in 2016 and wants to have some independence and distance from the Obama administration by then.
She says she is moving on and isn’t running for president, but, if that is true, it truly spells the end of the Clinton dynasty. I suppose Chelsea could emerge as a compelling politician in a few years, but I find it hard to believe that Hill & Bill are done trying to run this country again.
Clinton would be 69 years-old on election day in 2016, but Joe Biden would be seventy-four. For context, Ronald Reagan turned seventy a couple of weeks after he was inaugurated. Clinton would be on the margin, but Biden would simply be too old, especially to serve two terms. So, who would be the logical successor, assuming Obama has served two terms?
I don’t think we’ve seen the end of Hillary’s presidential ambitions. One big question is whether or not the Obama administration would get behind her. And what would Hillary do with herself in 2013 and 2014? And where’s the new blood? Who might emerge out of nowhere the way Obama did in 2006-2007?
I think 4 years is enough time for any cabinet position- so I don’t think there’s any more to it than that. So after she’s done at State, she takes a couple years off, shores up her political network, makes some more cash, and then takes the temperature of things in early 2015. If she thinks she can win, she’ll run.
As far as who could beat Hillary in 2016 if she ran for the nomination? Probably no one. But its way way too early.
As far as who could beat Hillary in 2016 if she ran for the nomination? Probably no one.
Same thing a lot people said just a few years ago.
Not to mention that when was the last time a primary loser came back to win the primary another time?
Al Gore?
Gore. Dole. Bush I. Reagan. Nixon.
Happens all the time.
I mean a Democrat. It happens all the for the Pukes. The 2nd place guy last time becomes the front runner next time.
John McCain.
Also, Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, Hubert Humphrey.
She unquestionably projects a compelling image of U.S. commitment and resolve around the world at this time by announcing her retirement from State nearly a year and a half before her term ends. Great. Especially at this juncture of revolt in the Middle East and the nuclear problems in Japan. Could it be that she knows she’s not up to the job? Could it be that simple? No. She and Bill are an endless theme. In 2016 the US can embark on its nest dynastic trip. She hasn’t got her way and she’s perturbed.
Since most assumed she and most cabinet secretaries would cycle out at some point during the first term or between terms. It isn’t like her saying that is unexpected.
Would it be impertinent to ask what, exactly, Hillary has achieved at State?
Of course, that last one and five bucks will get you a cup of coffee…
Given that the BRIC economies are the fasted growing in the world, name me a country which hasn’t expanded trade with them.
The US has always looked to international organisations to do it’s dirty work for them when it didn’t want to have to do it all itself.
Anyway, Obama’s coming to Ireland in May, so we can thank her for that. (Hubby Bill is lionised in Ireland for his contribution to the Peace process)
In 2016, Hillary Clinton will be 69 years old. That is the same age Ronald Reagan was when he was elected President. If the Secretary of State job is too exhausting, why would she want to be President?
My guess is that it is the end of the Clinton two-fer. It never really amounted to a dynasty.
As for new blood that might become popular, a lot depend on what happens in 2012.
But there are some definite possibilities. Al Franken will be 65, old but not too old to run. Sherrod Brown will be 64. Andrew Cuomo will be 59. The old guard will make their pick known by who the 2012 Democratic convention keynoter is; they’ll see if that dark horse catches the attention of the public.
The same question applies to the Republicans. Who are their candidates for 2016?
Al Franken will be 65, old but not too old to run. Sherrod Brown will be 64. Andrew Cuomo will be 59.
And the track record of Senators getting elected is what? And no way to Cuomo!! Unless you want another DLC/Turd Way hack. There is someone else who’ll be the same age as Brown then. And he just might be Governor of Wisconsin this time next year. 😉
The question was about Democrats, not progressive Democrats. Those are the strongest names left in the Democratic Party who are not yet too old to run. Not only is the Republican bench thin, the Democratic bench is thin as well.
Secretary of State is clearly an exhausting job. That said, does it give Hillary pause about wanting an even more stressful job? Who knows. I’m sure she will be happy to just stop flying to all corners of the earth all of the time.
Hopefully someone new comes out of the woodwork for 2016. It’s far enough off that there’s somebody out there who will be on the primary podium that we’ve never heard of.
Scuttlebut in these parts is that Sen. Amy Klobuchar wants to make a run at it. I’m not sure she has the chops, but it is clear that she does have a lot that she holds in reserve in terms of personality. She may be flying under the radar on purpose. For whatever that’s worth.
None of the people you guys mentioned in your comments can win.
I think a big part of the answer to whether Hillary runs is who emerges in the GOP primary for ‘016. I think the odds are heavily in favor of a Jeb run, in which case, I don’t know of anybody we’ve got on hand to beat him in a general other than Hillary. I’m not talking about candidates I might prefer as a liberal like Franken, Brown, or hey, Feingold; someone who has the centrist appeal (barf) that wins presidential elections.
And if Jeb doesn’t run (and ‘016 will effectively be his last real shot), then who else does the GOP have on hand who can make a serious run in the general? Forget the current crop of crazies. They might win House seats and southern Senate seats, but not the white house.
Forget Santorum. Forget anybody else in the field for ‘012. Somebody new is going to have to emerge in the next 3-4 years with old-school GOP support who also knows how to humor the nutjobs.
It’s funny, before he got teabagged, I was almost ready to lay money on a presidential run by Charlie Crist. I don’t know if he’ll be able to rehabilitate his political career by then (especially after saying he’d caucus with the Dems in the Senate if elected), but aside from Jeb, I can’t think of another serious contender.
A secondary but highly important consideration also, how seriously will we be taking the tea party in another 2-3 years? Certainly they have all the money in the world behind them, but given all the hype and other media saturation, it’s not all that far-fetched a notion to see them going the way of, say, break dancing some day soon.
I find it insane to speculate about the 2016 election when Obama has not even been reelected and we’re experiencing such in mess in 2011 which can not be remedied, at home and abroad, anyway. We’re are today living in—2011! Lots of people will emerge in politics and die in politics before 2016. There’s more than enough going on now.
Why even speculate on 2016? Especially if the best you can do is Klobuchar/Jeb Bush?
That’s just plum crazy talk. Crazier than crazy talk. Let the next FOUR AND A HALF years play out first, ok?
If Hillary steps down, if you are Obama, why not move Biden to State and annoint your successor as the new VP nominee? If that scenario were to happen and Obama picked Evan Bayh it would be time for revolution.
I would not be surprised by a move like that. I think that its Obama’s responsibility to groom a heir apparent in the Vice President’s office. Look out for an announcement that Biden wants to spend more time with the Grandchildren or with Foreign Policy.
If he didn’t pick Bayh in ’08 then he’s not going to pick him now. This imaginary speculation is ridiculous.
Perhaps she’s just going to take advantage of the Clinton family’s enormous bank account, and enjoy life.
They are, IIRC, extremely wealthy. If I was in my 60s and extremely wealthy, I wouldn’t want to put up with international diplomacy either. I’d just go fishing, drink beer, smoke incredibly high-quality weed, and fuck around all day. In south america. On my compound.
why shouldn’t she be the next and first Female Secretary of Defense?
Seems like she’s been saying this for about a year now. I don’t know why anyone thinks its particularly news. I tend to believe her. I think the leadership of the party demonstrated to her in ’08 that they weren’t particularly interested in a reprise of the Hillary-Bill show. I doubt the country was either. I can’t see how 2016 will be any different.
All this talk of Jeb. have you noticed how decidedly weak the GOP bench is any year a Bush doesn’t run?
What about Brian Schweitzer?
Works for me! At least if he stands up to the crazy things his legislature is passing like requiring the FBI to get the permission of the local sheriff before making any arrests.
2016 will be so much more interesting than 2012 for several reasons. If Obama/Biden win reelection, which I currently expect to happen, we’re likely to see an open field in 2016. It’s no accident that some DC journos have already started looking at the Republican Veep field as it is much more interesting than the sad spectacle of the likely 2012 presidential contenders. 2016 will also be interesting because there will likely be several non-white-male contenders on both sides.
Here’s a list of people who could run, other than Hillary, in 2016 (not necessarily who I want to run) with their age at that point in parentheses (in no particular order):
Democrats:
Gov. Brian Schweitzer, MT (61)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, NY (49)
Gov. John Hickenlooper, CO (64)
Gov. Martin O’Malley, MD (53)
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, MN (56)
Gov. Jay Nixon, MO (60)
Sen. Sherrod Brown, OH (63)
Gov. Andrew Cuomo, NY (58)
Sen. Mark Udall, CO (66)
Sen. Jeff Merkley, OR (60)
Sen. Claire McCaskill, MO (63)
Sen. Mark Warner, VA (61)
Gov. Deval Patrick, MA (60)
Republicans:
Sen. Marco Rubio, FL (45)
Sen. Scott Brown, MA (57)
Amb. Jon Huntsman, UT (56)
Gov. Susana Martinez, NM (57)
Sen. Rob Portman, OH (60)
Gov. Chris Christie, NJ (54)
Sen. Kelly Ayotte, NH (48)
Gov. Mary Fallin, OK (61)
Gov. Bobby Jindal, LA (45)
Sen. Rand Paul, KY (53)
Sen. John Thune, SD (55)
Gov. Nikki Haley, SC (44)
Gov. Robert McDonnell, VA (62)
I expect one of these folks to be elected in 2016. I doubt that we’ll again see someone elected President in 2016 who will just win either a gubernatorial or a Senate four years prior like Obama did. I also doubt anyone winning (they may run) the nomination in either party who is not currently in office. Of course, any of the above may lose election or be engulfed in scandal between now and 2016.
WAG:
Udall/Gillibrand
vs.
Martinez/Ayotte
Any chance it would be Obama/Clinton in 2012? Has there actually been anything to lock in Biden on the ticket next time? Maybe there was a deal at that meeting in Chicago.
“Who might emerge out of nowhere the way Obama did in 2006-2007? “
How can we possibly know who might emerge out of nowhere? I guess we could start by looking at all the people that are nowhere today, but that’s a hell of a lot of people.
Chelsea? Yeah, we really need an arbitrager in the White House.
I would not be surprised if Susan Rice replaces Hillary Clinton in 2013.