Other than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, it doesn’t really look like anyone is serious about winning the Republican nomination. Oh, sure, everyone from Rick Santorum to Donald Trump is talking about running, or, in Newt Gingrich’s case, thinking about thinking about forming an exploratory committee. It takes money and organization to run for and win a major-party nomination, though, and it gets late early. Maybe we should do this like the NCAA basketball tournament. First we have to seed the teams.
First Seeds
Mitt Romney- he ran a strong second last time around and he has the most money and the most Establishment support.
Tim Pawlenty- Has executive experience, some Establishment support, a moderate record that he’s running away from, and the fewest black marks on his record. He also appears serious about running.
Sarah Palin- She’s a wildcard because she is simultaneously the heir apparent (usually decisive in a GOP nomination contest) and a fringe candidate. She’s have little problem generating publicity and a lot of money, although perhaps not enough money to compete with Romney.
Haley Barbour- He’s a southern governor in a southern party. And he has more fundraising chops than anyone in the race. He’s a number one seed for financial reasons alone.
Second Seeds
Mitch Daniels- He has executive experience and a fairly moderate (by modern standards) record. He hasn’t decided whether or not to run, though, and time is running out to lock down Establishment support. If he gets in soon, he could have a real shot at competing in the money game.
Newt Gingrich- Newt has already raised a ton of money and he has a lot of connections. He’s a second seed for this reason and this reason alone.
Jon Huntsman- Huntsman served as Obama’s ambassador to China. The Establishment would love him, but he isn’t even the most popular Mormon Republican candidate in his home state of Utah. His best argument is that he could actually win in the general.
Mike Huckabee- I see no indications that Huckabee is willing to give up his gig at Fox News to run for president. But he won Iowa last time around and has to be considered in the top tier.
Third Seeds
Ron Paul- Paul also hasn’t said whether he is running or not, but he can always rely on his army of supporters to help fund and staff a national campaign.
Donald Trump- He has the money to get attention.
Michele Bachmann- She’s a Tea Partying renegade who knows how to get headlines.
Rick Santorum- He used to be the number three man in the U.S. Senate. He could become the statement choice of social conservatives.
Fourth Seeds
Mike Pence- Pence will compete with Santorum for the attention of social conservatives but he’ll just be wasting everyone’s time and squandering his career.
Buddy Roemer- A former Louisiana governor who says he’s running.
Herman Cain- The former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza.
John Bolton- Because every nominating contest needs a human-walrus.
Now, I don’t know how you get all these candidates on the same stage to have a debate. But we can bracket them up and see what happens.
East
1. Mitt Romney
4. John Bolton
2. Newt Gingrich
3. Donald Trump
Southeast
1. Haley Barbour
4. Buddy Roemer
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Rick Santorum
Midwest
1. Tim Pawlenty
4. Mike Pence
2. Mitch Daniels
3. Michele Bachmann
Southwest
1. Sarah Palin
4. Herman Cain
2. Jon Huntsman
3. Ron Paul
Anyone want to get an office pool going?
Cain looked good until Dominos changed their crust recipe and are now offering specialty pizzas. I would have to conclude he’s not in the running.
At least 2012 will make the Republican race interesting for a change; too bad it’s a dog race rather than a race of thoroughbreds, but that’s exactly what will make it interesting.
I think terrifying is a more accurate adjective.
This is fun. I have to disagree about Mittens and Huckster though. They should be reversed. The only way I see Mittens winning the nomination is if the GOP base wants to win so badly that they decide to go the “electable” route. On the surface, Mittens fits that.
Until he says otherwise, I’m betting on Huckster running. And given the southern tilt of the GOP, I wouldn’t bet against him for the nomination. Has a potential candidate ever sat out when he was leading in all the polls?
What’s more, Huckster is the only one who worries me, because he’s very good at the “Ahm jessa reg’ler guy!” schtick. I think he might pose a threat in our southern states as well as the Rust Belt. They’d get someone with all the crazy of Palin, but who can sell it. He’s also not a Mormon, so he won’t creep out the GOPer base. (I still question whether Mittens could win much of anything in either a primary or a general.)
I don’t really care who runs. There’s no one here who looks even remotely capable of knocking out Obama, and that’s what I really care about.
Just try picking who you want to win each of those matchups. It’s not a pleasant exercise.
I’ve rapidly reached the conclusion that so-called reasonable Republicans have the potential to do far more damage than the obviously nutty ones.
Given a choice between Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin, I think I’d actually have Palin win. They’d support the same policies, but there’s a chance that the press and the world at large would be more skeptical of Palin and might actually pay attention to what she does.
The same goes for most of those match-ups. Is there going to be any functional difference between the policies that Mitch Daniels pushes and the policies that John Bolton pushes? Probably not actually. So why not just put Bolton in there so that everyone knows exactly what they’re getting into, and they aren’t getting sold a bill of goods by someone pushing unreasonable positions with a reasonable disposition.
Barbour or none of the above win the nomination.
None of the above would probably come very, very late.
Someone who is not running just to sell more book or goose their appearance fee. Someone who cleverly waits until this mess shows itself to be completely unelectable and then steps up to “save the day”.
Haven’t a clue who that might be but it would have to be someone with their own money and lots of personal charisma — Oprah Winfrey like — except she is not a Republican.
I also think that person would have to see Obama as suddenly a lot more vulnerable than he currently is. This person would have to believe he/she is likely to win to enter.
So, not being able to think of who that is, I go with Barbour because a good chunk of America doesn’t care or even likes that he didn’t see segregation as a problem.
Two minds with but a single thought… see below.
I think Barbour is out of the nomination race:
Opponents will paint this as pimping for Mexico’s “amnesty” propaganda. Teabaggers will buy it. He’s done.
I know no late entrant has made a real show of things since, IIRC, RFK in ’68, and even then he probably got in too late for him to win — did the Wes Clark boomlet happen as late as I remember — but if it were ever to happen again in our lifetimes, this would be the party, and the year.
(Scans horizon for military figure, business leader, athlete, or other non-politician…)
Don’t see one, though. Petraeus was so thoroughly briar-patched by Obama that he’s impossible….
all of them should run
Now, I don’t know how you get all these candidates on the same stage to have a debate. But we can bracket them up and see what happens.
East
MITTENS
Southeast
HUCKSTER
Midwest
TIMMY
Southwest
CARIBOU BARBIE
I am so in. You should have a Pay Pal contest for all involved. Winner wins half the money, the other half goes to BooMan Tribune.
Isn’t Pence not running for President? I thought he was running for governor of Indiana after Daniels’ terms expire? You might need to find a new four seed.
Also, you might as well have some fun and try to game out the VP race as well. McDonnell from Virginia is the overall number one seed, right? Where would Jim DeMint fall in?
I’m enjoying an imaginary debate with not-my-man Mitch and Bachmann. That’d be at least a 2 popcorn bag event for sure. The thought of most of that bunch getting anywhere near the launch codes is simply horrifying.
Have to go “chalk” as they with all number one seeds. Still would be a crazy Final 4. Koch/Ailes/Donohue/Limbaugh axis of evil & GOP power must not know what to do yet with any winner.
I think Rand Paul could be a wildcard in this tourney too. Let the Jim Crow debate begin!
Ron, more likely.
So far Pawlenty has managed to throw meat to the rabid teabagger gang while keeping a “moderate right” image with the national media. Given the American talent for living with cognitive dissonance, I still think he could be formidable if he can keep that juggling act going. It almost worked for McCain, after all.
Yea, Pence is out. What about Snookie? Or Charlie Sheen? At the end of “Jersey Shore” last night, Snookie said she was running. 🙂
It seems like your missing someone too…Hmmmm, Michael Bloomberg?
Didn’t he pretty much take himself out? He could be the last stand of the “moderate” Repub remnant, but I don’t see how he gets nominated without turning into Palin, or at least McCain, and losing in the general.
Did Bloomberg make it clear? I can’t remember, so many rich people, so many politicians.
I heard someone say that Bloomberg has such a huge ego, if people recruited him, he’d do it. I think we replace Pence in the brackets with Bloomberg. Who else is there, Sharon Angle? 🙂
I came back to this post, because, in all honesty, it’s funny as hell, BooMAN. Bracketing the insanity that is the GOP…LOL
I’m honestly wondering if i want to donate to bachman. Shouldn’t dems be planning their own operation chaos?
That’s what a lot of us thought about Rand Paul, too. Like they say, in America anything is possible.
Man, I would have one tough time writing that check.
Supporting Sharia Law kills Pawlenty with the Tea Party.
Jon Huntsman…he is one handsome dude and really looks presidential. The Mormon thing is the one hurdle, I don’t think his working for the Obama administration will hurt him. His strengths will overcome that. But the Mormon thing…does anyone think that the rank and file can accept it? If they can, he would be a tough opponent. Unless he ends up being an empty suit, I haven’t really seen him speak much.
And with such a manly name, too. He and Palin could campaign from a helicopter shooting down wolves. Might just work.