David Roberts has everything right. He has everything right except for his understanding of Obama’s strategy and his explanation for how American politics work.
We do, indeed, live in a post-truth environment. It’s true that the Republicans’ haven’t moved right so much substantively as tactically. It’s true that we no longer have any effective referees to fairly arbitrate factual disputes between the two parties. Roberts pretty much nails the current situation exactly. But, here is where he goes too far.
On policy after policy, Obama began with grand, magnanimous concessions (see: offshore drilling) and waited in vain for reciprocation. He adopted center-right policies … and was attacked as a radical secular socialist Muslim babykiller. Every Dem proposal, no matter how mild, has been a government takeover complete with confiscatory taxes, death panels, and incipient tyranny. The fusillade of lies began early and has continued unabated.
Now, on the naive, positivist view, the media and other elite referees of public debate should have called a foul. Republicans should have been penalized for opposing and maligning policies that they’d supported not long ago, for brazenly lying, and for rejecting all attempts at compromise. They chose the strategy; the strategy should have been explained plainly to the public.
But the crucial fact of post-truth politics is that there are no more referees. There are only players. The right has its own media, its own facts, its own world. In that world, the climate isn’t warming, domestic drilling can solve the energy crisis, and Obama is a socialist Kenyan. (Did you see Obama’s birth certificate yet? If he had that much trouble convincing people he was born in the country, how did he expect to convince them he’s a reasonable moderate?) Obama can back centrist policies all day, but there is no mechanism to convey that centrism to the broad voting public. There is no judge settling disputes or awarding points. His strategy — achieve political advantage through policy concessions — has failed.
Everything about this is correct except for the last sentence. Obama’s strategy is to get bills passed that move the ball in a progressive direction. On some bills, like the Cap and Trade climate bill, he failed. On others, like the historic Affordable Care Act, he succeeded. But the strategy is not aimed at winning political advantage. It’s aimed at passing legislation. And Roberts does recognize the problem with passing legislation in our modern Congress. He lays it out beautifully.
The policy, the motive force among conservative elites, is a defense of America’s oligarchic status quo and a redistribution of wealth upward. It is those voices that speak in the ears of our political class and that agenda that commands the assent of one and a half of America’s two parties. It’s not hard to see why: our political system is choked with veto points, vulnerable to motivated minorities, insulated from public opinion, and flooded with money.
It is genuinely difficult to say what, if anything, can rally the left’s diverse constituencies into a political force capable of counterbalancing the influence of the country’s oligarchy.
One of those “veto points” is the U.S. Senate. We’ve been over this before, but even when Obama had 59 (and, briefly, 60) senators in the Democratic caucus, he had to deal with the fact some of those senators are very conservative, or represent states that did not vote for Obama. Those senators have to face the dominance of Republican talk radio and the ubiquitous presence of Fox News in their home states, and the need to raise buttloads of cash from poor, rural, and lightly-populated regions. That’s why senators like Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, and Blanche Lincoln weren’t signing off on any public option. That’s why Joe Manchin is joking around about destroying the country’s credit rating.
The veto of the oligarchy is a fact. It is a plain reality. It is not something that Obama can overcome through pretty rhetoric or through angry and frustrated complaint. His strategy is not to create this reality, or to take credit for it. His strategy is to make progress within its limitations.
His “only adult in the room” positioning is, indeed, designed to place him above the partisan bickering. But any president is required to do some of this symbolic separation from their own party. It allows them to be seen as the president of the whole country, not as a mere prime minister who can be tossed out as soon as his party’s policies grow unpopular. But however he does the optics, he spent his first two years constrained by the fact that nothing could pass through Congress that didn’t have either Olympia Snowe or Ben Nelson’s consent. He couldn’t lose the vote of Jay Rockefeller on a climate bill and he couldn’t lose Joe Lieberman on an insurance bill. This is why his policies have a less-than-satisfying flavor to them.
But the president has to be a pitchman for his policies and his accomplishments. He can’t go around saying that he’s powerless and his legislation is weak-tea. He has to take credit for his accomplishments, and he has had many accomplishments.
This is why progressive anger at the president has been misplaced from the beginning. At least in the legislative field, where he is completely shackled, the anger should have been placed at the people and media and laws and rules that have constrained him.
Much has been said about his negotiating style. Why offer any concessions up front? Perhaps Obama could wring more out of the system with a more combative style. But we are talking about the margins here. The fossil fuel industry is protected. The insurance industry is protected. The outcome is certain, only the details are in dispute.
The system is what it is. Changing it is a long-term project, and not the responsibility of the person charged with running the day-to-day operations of the government.
It’s beyond frustrating, but two things should focus the mind.
First, imagine what Obama’s record would look like if every bill crafted in the House over the last two years had not had to be designed to at least have a shot of passing in the Senate. And imagine that all of it passed and was signed by the president. How would Obama’s progressive credentials look then?
Second, imagine what would happen if the House Republicans could pass any bill they wanted and have it signed by the president. Imagine what would be left of our social safety net, our treasury, and the rights of women and minorities. Imagine their product on education and research and development and foreign aid and funding for women’s health and public broadcasting. Imagine the foreign policies of John McCain and Sarah Palin during the recent uprising in the Middle East.
When you keep those two things in your mind, things begin to take on a different perspective. Don’t you think?
Well, he may be completely shackled, as you say. But some of those shackles are self-imposed. Obama has decided that he is the bipartisan president, and this means that he is not able to put the blame where the blame belongs. When he came into office, he had to deal with the vast wreckage of the entire economy caused by Republican policy. When has he ever stated “lack of regulation is the cause of this economic disaster”. Never. Time after time, he has ceeded the ground, and then indicated that he is hobbled by a bad field.
Take the renewal of the tax cuts. Here he had the whip hand, and he simply did not press the advantage. What he should have done was take a strong position of NO RENEWAL FOR TAX CUTS FOR BILLIONAIRES, and force the Republicans to raise taxes for middle class persons. He did not do this, and now we are stuck with these tax cuts, which will not be repealed. I do not agree that he had no options there. He had no options because he chose to have no options.
Well, he may be completely shackled, as you say. But some of those shackles are self-imposed.
Where this will be evident most of all is in the raising of the debt ceiling. If anything but a clean bill is passed, it will be because the President wanted it that way.
I’d like you to explain that one for us.
What do you want explained? The GOP has already admitted the debt ceiling has to be raised. Clowns like Paul Ryan voted for it numerous times under Bush the Younger. They have no leverage. And everyone knows it. The only leverage they have is what the President gives them.
And, it doesn’t matter what individual Democratic senators do?
What Democratic Senators? Do you mean a dolt like Kent Conrad? Or are you talking about someone else? And didn’t Conrad vote for raising the debt ceiling under Bush the Younger(not to mention W.’s wars)?
link
You understand that the President has to take some of the blame for that, right? And you do know why people like Conrad, Manchin and Pryor are doing it, right? They don’t care about their constituents. Why Klobuchar is now getting aboard that train, I don’t know.
There were costs and tradeoffs to the Christmas deal. It’s more complicated than just a straight up vote on the tax cuts. And he’s already done since exactly what you asked him to do, which is state flatly that he will not renew Bush’s tax cuts again. It was a one-year stimulus, and that’s it.
So what happens if we don’t have 60 in the Senate when it comes time to let them expire and the GOP tries to demonize him for “raising taxes on the middle class”?
Geez, Booman, I thought you were a little more savvy than this. He has said that he won’t renew again. Well, he has LESS LEVERAGE, LESS POWER, and may not have the Senate with even a Dem majority.
There is a fact here. The fact is that he had leverage. Leverage is found when you have the power to deny the other side what they want. He simply gave away the leverage, and got really nothing for it, except for this “stimulus” myth. It’s like the story of Jacob and Esau, where Esau gave away his birthright (the inheritance right of the first-born son) for a plate of lentils. That’s what Obama did. He traded away the most important leverage for a plate of beans.
Baloney. He will veto any bill with the tax cut extension, and he’ll do it this year. Plus, he got the repeal of DADT out of the deal, among other things.
That is negative control.
Positive control is trading the tax extension for something. He got very little for it, and succeeded in pissing off the left side.
You want to put money on the extension of the tax cuts? My belief is that he has now lost the position, and that the tax cuts will be extended without limit. You say that Obama will veto them and end them this year.
I’ll put $5 on this. I will send my contribution to the Democratic candidate of your choice if you win, and you can send $5 to the Democratic candidate of my choice if I win.
We on?
He may not have to veto them. I can’t see Reid passing them. But, he has been unequivocal. He’s not signing another extension.
Everything about this is correct except for the last sentence. Obama’s strategy is to get bills passed that move the ball in a progressive direction.
I think you forget about something. How are voters supposed to get jazzed about a health care bill where a lot of the things don’t kick in until 2014? On the other hand, look at all the stuff the GOP has done in a myriad of state legislatures. Trying to destroy unions and Planned Parenthood. And the RWNJ’s are getting a woody over both. I guess the problem is that it appears, whether true or not is another story, that President Obama values process over policy while the GOPers value policy over process.
I’m confused. Is Obama supposed to do something about all the craziness passing through Republican state legislatures?
You missed the point. I’ll repeat. The GOP, in those state legislatures, are passing bills that give their base a chubby. The Democrats, on the other hand, passes stuff that doesn’t get many people excited and pisses off some people of their own base. And that doesn’t even get to stuff like the Massachusetts State House passed recently.
Democrats don’t pass stuff that get people excited because basic competent governance is not that exciting. But if you want showy liberalism so much, I remind you that Vermont has passed single-payer.
Also, the Massachusetts thing may not be what you think (I don’t know what you actually think it is which is why I’m hedging). Universal health care inherently means that all the hundreds of local unions are going to have to give up a certain amount of bargaining rights regarding health care. The same thing is going to happen in Vermont.
Obama’s problem, from Day 1 until today, is that he confuses BIPARTISAN PROCESS with BIPARTISAN RESULTS.
There is NO SUCH THING as a bipartisan process, unless both sides agree to negotiate in good faith. The republicans have long decided that the false ideal of the bipartisan process is going to be used to destroy Obama, and they are largely succeeding in that approach.
A bipartisan result is obtained with both sides start with a strong position on their own principles, and work to a mutually distasteful goal. That is a long American tradition.
Obama, on the other hand, has decided that he will be Mr. Bipartisan. That means he STARTS at the position that he wants to end up with. The Republicans, on the other hand, start with an unreasonable and insane position. By the time the process ends, we have 90% of what the Republicans want, 10 % of what Obama wants, and -50% of what the rest of the Democratic Party wants.
His negotiation approach is ineffective, incompetent, and apparently not being reconsidered. And that is a mistake.
broken.
Seth Meyers had a great line last night directed at the President – “”I’ll tell you who could beat you: 2008 Barack Obama. You would have loved him.”
Awesome and honest post booman.
I agree with BooMan.
Yes, the system is broken. We have an antiquated, undemocratic constitutional system, which is practically designed to allow oligarchies to retain their privileges.
And…we have a political system focused on money. I like Roberts’ formulation: 1.5 political parties doing the bidding of the wealthy, at most 0.5 parties doing the bidding of the people. This is why political scientists like Larry Bartels found that the opinion of 90% of the people does not matter at all when it comes to congressional votes. Only the opinion of the top 10% matters. And these data were collected before Citizens United.
I’m sure that there are things that Obama could have done that would have been better… And these things are interesting to talk about. But the main problem with American politics right now is not the perfidious soul of Barack Obama.
Some thoughts:
Yes, the system is broken.
The system gave us Obama.
Obama ran against the system and his rhetoric in doing so encouraged many previously uninvolved citizens to vote for him. It didn’t matter that his policy proposals were not that much different from Hilary’s pr not well known. His power was that he could campaign on a positive message at a moment ion time when the face of the Bush administration had been revealed at last.
People wanted change badly.
Unfortunately, Obama chose insiders to run the key components of the executive branch, particularly on the domestic side but also on the foreign policy side. He failed to take the risk of reaching for teh most he could get. You could see it the minute Rahm and Geithner and Summers were nominated the writing was on the waall. He may have had no choice, or he may have truly felt that he needed those insiders, or he may have believed their policies were the best ones for the country. I can’t tell.
However, I believe he had a window of opportunity to change the system in significant ways. If he had acted as forcefully as President as he did on the campaign trail, he may have been able to accomplish far greater change and put the Republicans in the trash can of History.
Again, no one can be certain of what the results would have been had he adopted a more aggressive approach. However, the tactics of centrism, compromise and not pushing the envelope of what was possible sabotaged any chance he might have had at the beginning of his Presidency to effect real change and rollback much of the conservative movement’s radical agenda that had been put in place during the Bush years.
Remember, his first year occurred before the Citizens United decision. If he had acted boldly I believe that much, much more could have been accomplished to change the system: a larger stimulus, and one not so oriented on tax cuts; a health care reform bill that offered at a minimum a public option,; more investment in infrastructure to create jobs in the near term and the long term; a return to the regulatory scheme of Glass Steagall regarding the financial industry.
Obviously, acting in a “bipartisan manner” did not change the manner in which the republcians attacked him. No approach he took was going to blunt their strategy of full bore opposition on everything and their tactics of racism and the defamation of his personal character. Perhaps this is all 20-20 hindsight, but Obama has to share much of the blame for his predicament. It’s easy to just blame the “system.” It’s easy to go with the conventional wisdom.
Unfortunately Obama ran as an unconventional candidate. He created the high expectations that many now fault him for not attaining. Knowing that he won in large part because people wanted new approaches he failed by taking the easier path.
Now it is the GOP who claim they are the ones with new ideas. The fact that their ideas are poisonous to our democracy matters little. Many under-informed people will believe their lies. And the truth that is always how our politics have gone. If one side doesn’t deliver, many voters follow the siren call of the other side. Unfortunately for us, if the Republicans capture the Senate and retain control of the House, and possibly even defeat Obama, those “promises” will be fulfilled.
And our politics and our lives will suffer greatly if that happens.
Please forgive the typos.
I agree with some of this, but I do insist that most of it is on the margins. I don’t think he could get a public option and I think he knew that as soon as he canvassed the Senate. He kept it on the table as a negotiating ploy and then traded it when it had maximum value to him. Disappointing, yes, but probably necessary.
Where I am most inclined to agree with you is over the issue of Bush’s criminality. We could have had a public airing of that and real accountability. The pushback was startlingly aggressive over the CIA and Gitmo, but he could have stood his ground and dragged the GOP’s brand through the muck for all to see. I think he wanted to avoid getting bogged down in that kind of fight and it would have had real costs for his agenda and his welcome in the Village. He probably would not have had any chance of getting reelected. But, who knows? Maybe it was exactly what we needed.
I don’t think he could have gotten a much bigger stimulus or a much stronger Wall Street bill. A little better? Sure. But not enough to make much of a difference.
The one area where he was pretty aggressive was the climate bill. And look where it got him.
” If one side doesn’t deliver, many voters follow the siren call of the other side. “
This exactly what happened last November. Look for the Senate to fall next year. Whoever is President will not matter. If Obama is re-elected look for him to sign anything the GOP gives him.
My complaint with Obama is that he came into office on the strength of a populist campaign that promised to bring fundamental change to the political dynamics in this country. But instead he has chosen to play ‘small ball,’ hoping to squeeze some concessions here and there out of the Republicans and the Conservative Democrats in Congress.
What he is not doing is attacking the root causes of our sick political culture. He is in bed with the bankers as personified by the Goldman Sachs boys, and he has made some very unfortunate choices in appointments (Geithner, Summers, Bernanke, Simpson, etc…) Obama seems far more interested in protecting the status quo than he is in rocking the boat.
His Justice Dep’t. is an embarrassment to our tradition of human rights and due process. He offered the Commerce Dep’t. post to that right wing nitwit Judd Gregg, etc…)
If the argument is about whether Obama is better than the Republicans, then it’s a no-brainer– of course he is. But he is a pale shadow of the man who ran that great campaign in 2008, and disappointment with his performance as President is a great hindrance to his fellow Democrats who are running for office. All those newly energized voters who were excited about the prospect for Change are wondering, whatever happened to the “Fierce Urgency of Now?”
I don’t get how a trillion dollar stimulus package and a trillion dollar health care package ends up being considered “small ball”.
That said, I agree that the biggest political mistake that Obama made was not harnessing popular anger against the bankers. Amazingly, he allowed the party of wall street to reap the benefits of the anti-wall-street fervor in the 2010 midterms.
Rae,
That stimulus package didn’t address what is fundamentally wrong with our politics. It’s just a piece of legislation that was a step in the right direction, and a useful band-aid for the moment. But it doesn’t change the underlying reality that our nation is in the grip of the entrenched economic interests— the bankers, Wall St., the insurance firms, Big Pharma, Big Oil, the military-industrial complex, and our shitty corporate media.
Go back and watch video of Obama on the campaign trail– he was fiercely committed to trying to change the basic nature of things, not just to work within the existing system and tinker at the margins. He has turned out to be nothing more than a centrist in the Bill Clinton mold– I don’t know about you, but that sure as hell isn’t what I voted for. Look at his appointments– how many of them are policy activists
who are willing to raise hell and rock the boat?
Wall Street and big buisness hate Obama.
Change doesn’t happen quickly when the Reagan Doctrine has been in place for so long.
ACA is a huge change.
DADT is huge.
Lily Ledbetter is nothing to sneeze at.
Getting the START Treaty ratified was vital.
Extending unemployment benefits kept roofs over people’s heads.
You aren’t using facts at all.
I’m sorry you are upset with Obama.
Bill Clinton out Reaganed Reagan, not a centrist at all.
Eagleeye, I decided to take your challenge. I went back and looked at the Denver convention speech, figuring that it would be a fairly good representative of Obama’s rhetoric during the campaign. Here is a link to the text, video, and an AP account of the speech:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/28/barack-obama-democratic-c_n_122224.html
What does Obama promise in the speech? A bunch of standard democratic stuff… More money for education, clean energy, tax cuts for working people…and health care for all. He didn’t get all this stuff, but I would argue that the stimulus and the health care bill, insofar as they were attempts to make things economically better for working people, were the central promises of the campaign.
And as for changing the politics… Obama never said that he was going to fundamentally change the system. What he said was that he would fundamentally change the tone, by being the reasonable, moderate, listen-to-all-sides leader that Bush patently was not. Essentially, he promised to sing Kumbaya. Which he did… to absolutely no effect.
I am disappointed with the results of the Obama presidency, but by and large I do not share your feeling that he misrepresented himself. I expected a moderate who would push the system in the leftwards direction, and that is pretty much what I got.