I’m surprised to see disgraced columnist Armstrong Williams writing in The Hill. What a joke. I guess there is no level one can stoop to that will permanently get you kicked out of The Village. In any case, Williams writes about tonight’s official start of the 2012 presidential campaign, which takes the form of a Fox News debate in South Carolina between Republican stalwarts: Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Tim Pawlenty. How many of you know who all those people are and what elected positions (if any) they’ve held?
Armstrong Williams is right about one thing. Someone will emerge as the winner of the debate. Tim Pawlenty better hope he is perceived as the winner. I don’t understand why Pawlenty’s handlers are letting him participate at all. My guess is that they want to start introducing Pawlenty to South Carolina voters in case he is able to pull off a miracle win in either Iowa or New Hampshire. By showing the Palmetto State some early respect, maybe it will help him build up an organization down there. But it’s quite the gamble. I don’t know exactly what to expect from Herman Cain, who is a former CEO of Godfather Pizza, but Johnson and Paul will be competing to be the most libertarian. Santorum will be pushing some new man-on-dog theory to prove his socially conservative credentials. Pawlenty needs to avoid being pulled into the heat-fever swamp, and do it without looking like some kind of squishy conservative.
I’m disappointed that Michele Bachmann isn’t going to be there. Or Palin. But there will be plenty of STUPID CRAZY to go around. Unfortunately, the Associated Press is refusing to cover the event.
Meanwhile the top tier candidates will be watching the debates from mansions of top donors, laughing the whole time. I’m sort of amazed at how well the top tier candidates are handling this so far. They have a gentleman’s agreement to let the crazies go ahead and flail about making idiots of themselves and then the top tier starts campaigning until the fall. They each get to keep on raising money, building support, etc and none of them gets dragged down into the mud or has to expend tons of money. Credit where credit is due. Pawlenty seems to be the only one not sticking to the plan and I think that’s because he’s about to get squeezed out by Huntsman and Daniels on the list of Serious Candidates.
I smell a surprise in the offing. There is no way a national political party could be this far behind schedule and so far of base without something in their back pocket. I just can’t imagine what it is yet.
or perhaps they plan to cede the Presidential campaign entirely and spend all the birther/anti-abortion/anti-secret-Muslim fundraising money on Congressional/State campaigns?
or perhaps they plan to cede the Presidential campaign entirely and spend all the birther/anti-abortion/anti-secret-Muslim fundraising money on Congressional/State campaigns?
Bingo!!
If that’s the case, and no one notices in time (and the Dem money is donated to the wrong place), we’re all F’d 1000 was til Sunday.
hey Booman,
I’d be interested in hearing your take on Huntsman or Mitch Daniels chances if they consider a run in 2012.
actually do you even think either will enter the race?
Well, one thing to look at is John McCain’s 2008 primary campaign.
He came in at the beginning as a definite favorite. Guiliani was polling very well, but everyone knew he was going to have a problem with the Republican base because of his infidelities and socially moderate record, and that he had a lot of baggage.
But McCain stumbled badly, ran out of money, fired or had most of his staff quit. It was a total mess.
But the logic of electability carried him through. He rose like a phoenix from the grave and won the nomination rather easily.
So, we shouldn’t underestimate the GOP’s ability to nominate the most electable candidate, and Daniels, Huntsman, and Romney are their three most electable candidates.
I think Huntsman and Romney will run. I don’t think Daniels will.
Obama was looking formidable before he killed bin-Laden. He must look really tough now. I just don’t see why Daniels would do it when the odds look so bad. Huntsman might bow out, too. He’s obviously going to come at Obama on foreign policy, and he’s looking pretty tough and effective at the moment.
Plus, Huntsman has to compete with Romney for the Mormon vote, which could conceivably mean that neither of them will even sweep through the Mountain West. It’s a tough road for their delegate-wise. I will not be shocked if no one can win the majority of delegates and we wind up with some kind of brokered convention. That could allow them to draft someone, but Petraeus will be locked up in Langley running the CIA.
I seriously doubt the brokered convention scenario. It hasn’t happened in decades, and there’s just too much pressure now (especially financial) to settle on a candidate by the end of primary season. Even more so with Obama already running. We saw how much criticism Clinton got for dragging her inevitable loss out an extra three months in 2008, and that was with no incumbent. Morever, the imperative to coalesce behind a standard-bearer is even stronger in the GOP than among Dems.
The crazies probably won’t like whatever candidate the Republican party establishment settles on, but in the end, the establishment controls enough delegates that in such a muddled environment they have all the cards. Math is on their side. The only way the crazies win is if they unite behind one candidate and sweep the primaries. That ain’t happening.
Have you considered the new rules?
In the past the GOP did mainly winner-take-all primaries, which obviously lead to quick outcomes. Someone wins California, and it’s game over.
But, now…
The Republicans actually are trying to get a prolonged primary period. But by denying any winner-take-all primaries before April, they’ll wind up with more late primaries and also with less chance of an early decision.
Hillary found out what it means not to have winner-take-all primaries. She won Texas and lost delegates.
Dont be so certain that the anyone in the GOP field can win a majority of the delegates.
Isn’t Huntsman going to be fatally handicapped in the primaries by the fact that he worked for Obama?
I’m still waiting for someone to explain the following to me:
Folks want to dance around these two issues, which is really one – the GOP IS FULL OF RACIST, XENOPHOBIC BIGOTS….
but, explain to me how, when this is the CORE of the GOP, how Mittens, Huntsman and Napoleon win ANYTHING?
I’m still waiting for someone to explain the following to me:
Folks want to dance around these two issues, which is really one – the GOP IS FULL OF RACIST, XENOPHOBIC BIGOTS….
but, explain to me how, when this is the CORE of the GOP, how Mittens, Huntsman and Napoleon win ANYTHING?
I like that Johnson will be there. Perhaps we can talk sense into our foreign policy apparatus with more Republicans approaching it from that angle.
I still think someone big will run who we don’t know about now. Who I have no clue but since the current crop of rethugs sucks, they have to come up with someone who stands a chance against Obama.
Unless Obama really screws up in the next year, he’ll win easily. Unless of course the dems refuse to get off the couch and vote. Then it’s a toss up.
although people like me, who have given up on the democrats, will have to be convinced, i’m pretty sure the rest of America is chastened and terrified by the republican lunatics. their craziness has been a blessing in disguise, mobilizing not only democrats who sat 2010 out (and YES I voted for the dems) but the independents who didn’t realize they were voting for attacks on women, union-bashing, etc.
they’re gonna want to stop more of the nutballs from getting into office. Who knows, we might have another democratic landslide to squander.
Of course the question of the day will what the criteria is for winning the debate.
Since we can cross off our list a candidate with the best grasp of the issues at large will it be the one that can make the audience or Fox panel weep the most?
The criteria will be who is the most crazy. Who is the most radical and who satisfies the far right teabaggers, the anti abortion crowd, the shrink the guvmint to fit into a bathtub crowd, who is for starting another war or two. And of course those who believe Obama isn’t a citizen.
Issues? We don’t need no stinkin issues.
RE the bathtub, not only fit, but drown.