I don’t know which is more disheartening: the fact that we can’t identify any Taliban leadership to negotiate with, or the fact that our demands are little more than a pipe dream.
While the military has secured parts of the country and bolstered the Afghan government’s security forces, the administration now recognizes that a final American withdrawal depends on a political settlement with the Taliban, a fundamentalist Islamic movement equated closely with the murderous ideology of Al Qaeda. The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, were orchestrated by Al Qaeda under the Taliban’s protection.
The administration has imposed significant conditions for any reconciliation with the Taliban. The movement’s leaders must disarm, sever ties with Al Qaeda’s remaining leadership, recognize the government in Afghanistan and accept the country’s Constitution, including basic rights for women, who were severely repressed when the Taliban governed the country in the 1990s.
It is uncertain whether the Taliban or even parts of its leadership are willing to accept such conditions, and many experts are deeply skeptical.
I don’t even know where to begin critiquing this list of things that will never happen. It might be possible to get senior Taliban commanders to disavow any ties to al-Qaeda, but these men are leaders of religious students who have been indoctrinated in Saudi-funded madrassas in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Their views on women’s rights are not appreciably different from the views of the Saudi Royal Family. Obviously, I support human and civil rights for all women, but I don’t support occupying Afghanistan to uphold rights that are not respected within our close ally Saudi Arabia’s borders.
Furthermore, these men are warlords. All of their power and influence derives from their ability to lead armed men. They are not going to put down their guns unless there is something very lucrative in it for them. In some cases, that something could be their lives. But as part of peace negotiations, it would probably have to be cold, hard cash.
I don’t see why they would recognize the Afghan Constitution, either. President Karzai hasn’t shown much interest in these negotiations (if we can even call them that) and he isn’t offering any power-sharing arrangement or concessions that I am aware of.
It appears to me that the U.S. would like to leave Afghanistan with some dignity and to leave behind something better than an immediate resumption of hellacious civil war. But our leaders have no idea how to make that happen.
You know what? This happens to everyone who invades Afghanistan. Without exception. It’s probably just the unique nature of the place. The Soviets stayed too long and paid a heavy price for it. We should stop trying to save face. We went into Afghanistan to find Usama bin-Laden, rip up his terrorist training camps, and drive the host government from power. We have now done all that. It’s time to declare victory and come home.
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Agree with your argumenrts except the final plea: don’t BS the public with a declaration ‘MissionAccomplished’ or ‘Victory’. The truth is far from it due to rabid corruption in the Karzai regime, no democracy possible with Pakistan a declared enemy of American way of life and the West’s war on terror.
Karzai and Zardari just het a meeting in Teheran with Ahmadinejad who declared the US as the only terrorist state and war on all occupying forces in the Islam Caliphate.
See my recent diaries:
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
Staying in Afghanistan has a lot to do with the Pakistan problem (Pakistan nuclear weapons, Pakistan – India tensions and threats, Pakistan support for terrorism, etc). I don’t think it’s possible for the usa to just leave the region right now and I don’t have any suggestions or timetables or anything.
Why leave now? I hear it’s pretty safe over there…
I don’t know, are you able to find where “there” is yet?
I’m sorry, this scenario that the Obama administration is pursuing still leaves a me with more than a taste of “Peace with honor.” And is Yemen the new Laos?
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because we don’t want to bomb the holy state of Saudi Arabia.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
The problem is domestic politics, not international relations.
We can’t afford another generation populated by “we wuz stabbed in da back by da peaceniks” politicians and their military enablers.
I don’t think they have anything of the kind in mind. They’re just thinking about their personal prestige right this second, not nation-building in south Asia, which any moron realizes is impossible. And please, let’s not buy into this “apres-moi le deluge” shit. The deluge has been happening for 10 years. It could hardly get much worse there.
The remnants of the neo-cons are jonesing for keeping at least Bagram and perhaps other bases in Afghanistan as forwardly deployed strategic outposts in Central Asia to counter Russia, China, Iran, India, and Pakistan. So far, they haven’t won the argument.
But the brass whose first duty was in Vietnam are very much in a “peace with honor” “let’s not fuck up” state of mind. Ignoring the biggest 20 FUs of the past decade.
Appearances are deceiving. They are deflections. This for example:
This is not aimed at the hard-core Taliban but at the nationalists who allied with the Taliban because of the US occupation. If those folks move to unity talks with Karzai, the political power of the Taliban will be weakened more than it already is. Ordinary people now shelter the Talliban because they fear them; they have polluted the ocean of support that they once swam in opposing occupation.
And it is not a precondition for US withdrawal, but it most certainly is a precondition for a peaceful political process in Afghanistan. The majority of the country is not going back to Taliban domination; that option may happen but it will bring perpetual civil war.
We don’t save face by staying. We save face by leaving. The faster we leave, the more pressure is put on Afghan security forces to stop diddling around and start keeping peace in the country.
But for the US public, we have to declare victory in order to get out. And we have. Even if it appears illusory now. Wars really are not about victory or defeat; they are about politics. Who gets what, when, where, how, as the title of an old political science text once put it.
We have declared victory. We are coming home. The restraint to coming home faster is the political clout of the US military brass, who bear the emotional scars of their self-described “defeat” in Vietnam because we didn’t “stay the course”. Wait until they have to face up to the fact that getting what they wanted is what destroyed the American empire. But that will take time and a few drinks.
The Republican stunt on Libya was meant to distract from the fact that those brass closest to the Republicans are the very ones limiting how fast we can withdraw from Afghanistan. And who are trying to get us to drag our feet in Iraq. And get permanent bases.
These generals would argue that there are still enough al Quaeda in Afghanistan to open new, better hidden terrorist training camps. That the host regime, now toppled, is not poised to return. And that Ayman al-Zawahiri might be a wilier and less visible threat than the more charismatic bin Laden.
The risk of any or all of those things occurring is not zero, but the President has judged that the US can take some risk–more risk than the “risk-averse” generals who let George W. Bush get them into these wars would prefer (they prefer the appearance of sure things, even if illusory).
The Afghan Constitution is a curious document. It was written in 2003 by a loya jirga. That was not the last loya jirga. There was one a year ago.
The Pakistani newspaper Dawn has these articles about peace overtures with the Taliban.
It is clear that whatever the reality Karzai wishes to appear to be involved in talks.
Great comment.
As with the Iraq withdrawal, the point is not to win over the insurgency as a whole, but to split it – to get those whose primary purpose is to end our occupation to split off from the ideological jihadists.
And just like Iraq, the al Qaedists really have alienated the local population that once saw them as liberators.
And just like Iraq, the pace of the withdrawal needs to take into account the need to avoid setting off a power vacuum.
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
It’s a good thing that destroying al Qaeda is a whole lot more important than our relationship with Pakistan.
Seriously, eff them. India is the world’s largest democracy, they’re managed to remain democratic and to achieve impressive progress in the face of ethnic and economic challenges we can only dream of, and we’re playing some equivalence game between them and Pakistan?
Eff Pakistan. This would be a great time for Hillary Clinton to visit India.
The lesson from the Iraq withdrawal is that the promise and reality of our exit changes the political dynamics and makes things that were not possible during the war and occupation possible.
“If you should fall on the Afghan plain, roll on your rifle and blow out your brain. …” Rudyard Kipling