For those of you who don’t know anything about Elizabeth Drew, she is a former political correspondent for The Atlantic Monthly and The New Yorker. She currently provides political commentary for The New York Review of Books. A journalist, she is also an author of 14 books herself, and a Washington resident. Her most recent article “What Were They Thinking?” provides a great deal of insight into how we find ourselves in another fine mess. If you can’t read the entire article (small print, lots of words) let me provide you with a few choice excerpts:
Someday people will look back and wonder, What were they thinking? Why, in the midst of a stalled recovery, with the economy fragile and job creation slowing to a trickle, did the nation’s leaders decide that the thing to do—in order to raise the debt limit, normally a routine matter—was to spend less money, making job creation all the more difficult? […]
… The Republicans had made it clear for months that they would use the need to raise the debt ceiling as an instrument for extracting concessions from the Democratic President in the form of more cuts in federal programs. […]
Boehner hadn’t realized at first that he’d have so many Republican defectors—fifty-four—who voted against the continuing resolution he’d negotiated with Obama in early April, on the ground that it didn’t cut spending enough, though Boehner had, in effect, taken Obama to the cleaners. This established in both Democrats’ and Republicans’ minds the thought that Obama was a weak negotiator—a “pushover.” He was more widely seen among Democrats and other close observers as having a strategy of starting near where he thinks the Republicans are—at the fifty-yard line—and then moving closer to their position. […]
Finding a solution to reducing the deficit that was agreeable to Boehner, to Cantor, to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and to the President was no small task. The men, who had rudely and unwisely excluded Pelosi, now the minority leader, from their deliberations, could no longer avoid dealing with her. […]
In early July, when Obama suddenly injected Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid into the deficit and debt negotiations, many, perhaps most, Democrats were dismayed. They believed that the President was offering up the poor and the needy as a negotiating gambit. (His position was that if the Republicans would give on taxes, he’d give on entitlements.) A bewildered Pelosi said after that meeting, “He calls this a Grand Bargain?” And she came down firmly against any changes in those programs that would hurt beneficiaries.
Drew goers on to rightly point out that the Democrats in the House were furious because they believed Paul Ryan had handed them to keys to victory in 2012 with his “bizarre proposal, that would turn Medicare into a voucher system.” They couldn’t understand Obama’s willingness to promote benefit cuts in exchange for modest revenue increases that the Tea Party caucus in the House was simply never going to approve. As she rightly noted, whether out of principle or fear of becoming the next Bob Bennett, the three-term and very Conservative Republican Senator from Utah who lost in a primary to a Tea party candidate in 2010. The fact that Bennett’s seat wasn’t safe from extremist Republican primary voters caused the the old line conservatives in Congress a great deal of angst. After Bennett, not one of them wanted to be seen by the tea party mob as insufficiently aligned with the extremist Tea Party agenda, which called for more tax cuts and more spending cuts, including entitlement reform.
Yet as Larry Summers (hardly the most liberal economic adviser this country has ever had) pointed out, the problem we have is not with federal spending but insufficient demand to sustain an economic recovery and create jobs. Perhaps his conversion to the reality came too late (after he’d already left the administration) but it’s damning nonetheless. Particularly because the President and his political advisers (according to Drew’s sources) decided that reason the Democrats lost the 2010 election was because Obama didn’t come across to Independent voters as being enough of a deficit hawk. The high jobless rate and the fear that Republicans had generated in seniors (always a higher percentage of voters in off-year elections) that Obama and the Dems were trying to destroy Medicare with the Health Care Reform Act was dismissed or ignored.
It all goes back to the “shellacking” Obama took in the 2010 elections. The President’s political advisers studied the numbers and concluded that the voters wanted the government to spend less. This was an arguable interpretation. Nevertheless, the political advisers believed that elections are decided by middle-of-the-road independent voters, and this group became the target for determining the policies of the next two years.
That explains a lot about the course the President has been taking this year. The political team’s reading of these voters was that to them, a dollar spent by government to create a job is a dollar wasted. The only thing that carries weight with such swing voters, they decided—in another arguable proposition—is cutting spending.
Drew points to Obama’s speech on April 13 as the moment when Obama discarded any notion that he would push for job creation through more stimulus spending, and instead veered to the right, seeking to portray himself as a “fiscal conservative” in line with the advice he received from his political team:
In that speech he stated that he wanted to reduce the debt by $4 trillion—thus aligning himself with the Republicans—but also asked for revenues to partly offset that reduction. It was all about reelection politics, designed to appeal to this same group of independents. “And that’s why,” I was told by the person familiar with the White House deliberations, “he went bigger in the deficit reduction talks; bringing in Social Security is consistent with that slice of the electorate they’re trying to reach.” This person said, “There’s a bit of bass-ackwardness to this; the deficit spending you’d want to focus on right now is the jobs issue.”
This all fits with another development in the Obama White House. According to another close observer, David Plouffe, the manager of Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, who officially joined the White House staff in January 2011, has taken over. “Everything is about the reelect,” this observer says—”where the President goes, what he does.”
In effect, Drew claims that her sources show why Obama has become a deficit hawk. Obama has adopted the strategy of spending cuts, even to the safety net, because that’s what David Plouffe told him to do if he wants to get re-elected. It’s why Obama has made a concerted effort to give the impression to the public that he is “the most reasonable person in the room.” It’s all about appealing to “independents” even of that means disregarding the anger and concern of much of the base of the Democratic party regarding the proposals he has made, proposals for cuts to entitlements that no other Democratic President has ever made before since Social Security was established.
Because of the extent to which the President had allowed the Republicans to set the terms of the debate, the attitude of numerous congressional Democrats toward him became increasingly sour, even disrespectful. After Obama introduced popular entitlement programs into the budget fight, a Democratic senator described the attitude of a number of his colleagues as:
Resigned disgust at the White House: there they go again. “Mr. Halfway” keeps getting maneuvered around as Republicans move the goalposts on him.
According to a report in The Hill newspaper in late June, the tough-minded, experienced, and blunt Democratic Representative Henry Waxman of California told Obama in a White House meeting that he’d asked several Republicans about their meeting with him the day before, and, “To a person, they said the President’s going to cave.” Then the congressman said to the President of the United States, “And if you’re going to cave, tell us right now.” The President was reported to have been displeased, and responded, “I’m the President of the United States; my words carry weight.”
There’s that word again: Cave. But this time it’s not the word used by disgruntled progressive bloggers. These are the words and opinions of professional Democratic politicians in the Senate and the House.
Now, to be fair, we are in this situation primarily because the Republicans are dogmatic to the point of insanity (or unwilling to challenge that dogma). They bear the greatest portion of blame for this “crisis” because of their adherence to an economic cult and political ideology grounded in selfishness, unfettered and unregulated capitalism and the destruction of the Federal Government. Their policies have been proven over the last thirty years to be utter failures at creating jobs and improving the economic well being of all but a tiny percentage of very well off Americans.
However, as Drew’s reporting shows, Obama own actions this year have often enabled the worst and most cynical among the Republicans to give no quarter in negotiations. It has also fed their delusions and megalomania. At the same time, the President’s failure to consult and work with the leaders of his own party on a strategy to combat the republicans has placed him at odds with senior leaders of his party to his detriment, the detriment of his party and quite possibly the severe detriment of millions of Americans who will suffer whether “a deal” (which I predict will have spending cuts but no revenue increases) is reached before August 2nd or not.
Not to worry, Steven. Everyone tells me Obama is a professional politician who is a million times better at this than we are, and a thousand times better than the entire Democratic caucus combined.
Surely everything will work out and we won’t get a double-dip recession. Besides, everyone knows that those pesky independents care about reducing government spending more-so than keeping their houses and jobs. They’ll all look back in November 2012 and think, “Man, I know I’m unemployed, but that Obama…he was such an adult!”
Run for office?
Naa, that requires effort.
Well you’re born and then you die and then you blame Obama for creating you in the first fucking place.
🙂
He’s never even filled out a tax return.
Yes, because if you haven’t run for political office, surely you don’t know how things work; nevermind the people who’ve worked as aides to Senators or Representatives. Oh wait, what’s that? The Democratic Caucus is expressing similar reservations about these deals as the rest of the agitators on the outside? And they ran for office, many of whom have been in office longer than the president? You don’t say…
You trust who you trust and I’ll trust who I trust kemosabe.
Putting trust in any politician is folly.
I don’t trust anything until everything is signed and delivered. Until they start putting construction workers into office then politicians is all we have. I definitely will not trust some elitist journalist who wouldn’t know of any of my problems unless they personally bit them in the ass. At least with a politician I have a chance to vote them out of office.
Are you 25?
You’re in Cantor’s district. There isn’t a Democrat there that has the guts to challenge him. All you have to figure out is where to get 170,000 folks to vote for you. You’ve got five months to set up your strategy and “explore your candidacy”. Your pitch to the Democratic hierarchy is “Let me be the lamb to the slaughter”.
Go low budget. Fly under the radar. And catch him napping. Most folks who decide to dump Cantor probably won’t talk about it to their personal networks of Cantor supporters.
And look at the new geography. Where Cantor might be at a disadvantage.
If nothing else, your exploration efforts will network you into a job.
Is this the same Henry Waxman that voted for the Iraq War resolution and the Patriot Act? In the mInd of liberals as long as you talk big shit before caving, it’s not a cave. Democrats either jumped on the Bush band wagon or got rolled the fuck over in getting his war resolution, unlimited police powers, and tax cuts, but according to liberals, Obama is the wink link that broke their successful line of defense. Before Obama, Democrats never compromised or conceded to reality, right? George Bush got almost everything he wanted just with Republican votes, right? Get the fuck out of here!
Doncha know history began on 1/20/09 and Obama has dropped the ball ever since. Any pundit, journalist, generic Democrat who talks smack can do a better job. It’s easy, all he has to do is listen to pundit A, B, or C. They’re all smarter and capable the he is. Oh why won’t he listen?!
The problem with Drew’s column is that she frames things this way:
This wasn’t a decision.
The Republicans won a huge victory in the 2010 midterms and they brought in a massive new class utterly committed to cutting the deficit and not going one more dime into debt. Obama couldn’t wish that fact away. If anything, the intransigence you are seeing from the Republicans right now is proof that Obama was facing a debt crisis and that he needed to position himself to benefit from it politically, because he sure as hell wasn’t getting any jobs stimulus money.
People act like he could have started out at the ten-yard line and the Republicans would have moved to the midfield line. That’s hogwash. It was plain from the beginning that this would be a brawl, and either the Republicans would blink at the last moment, or they wouldn’t.
This fight was going to happen. It could not be avoided.
The president could have opened by asking for a trillion in new spending. He would still have wound up where he finds himself today.
correct.
Fine.
Except he should have never used republican memes. He repeated used words and phrases that scare the crap out of the most vulnerable.
Once the republicans voted for the Ryan plan everything changed. They were doomed. But then Obama pretty much agreed with them, or at least allowed the appearance of agreement.
It is true that circumstances have dictated SOME of what he has done, but when the freaking minority leader is left out of negotiations you have messed up.
I am left with the conclusion that he is horrible in political calculation. Multiple dimension chess? The guy does not even know the importance of his pawns.
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The president could have opened by asking for a trillion in new spending. He would still have wound up where he finds himself today.
But he might have pushed the conversation in a more progressive direction.
If he wanted to do that. He doesn’t.
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you know, I think it’s not really a sitting president’s job to “move the conversation.” At least, not in the way that you mean. When Obama gives a press conference and he kicks Boehner’s ass, that moves the conversation. But you mean something bigger and longer than changes the conversation over time.
I’ll take an enacted health care reform that the GOP cannot repeal over rhetoric anyday. Why? Because it changes the facts on the ground. Before long, even Republican congresspeople will be holding hearings to improve health care delivery and cut down on costs.
I’ll take a signed hate crimes bill, repeal of DADT, and a refusal to defend DOMA in court over a couple of pretty speeches.
I’ll take financial reforms that protect the consumer so much that the GOP won’t even allow someone to run the CFPB over some impotent populist bleating.
To each his own.
Moving the conversation with mere rhetoric is overrated, and it’s for parties and other organizations to do, not sitting presidents.
On this we agree. And ftr, I think the financial reform bill is much better than progressive critics like to give it credit for. People I see who are watching the regulations being written have nothing but good things to say (except about the Volcker rule, something they predicted).
Organizers are the natural enemy of framers. I never met anyone with a clipboard in their hand who knew what the fuck framing even is.
People want to go up against Fox News, Hate Radio, and Citizens United with mere rhetoric.
It’s not going to work.
Here’s my problem with the president:
This is all assumed to be in a vacuum. I remember Obama saying that it was poppycock to claim that Boehner would ever hold the debt ceiling hostage. I won’t say that’s naivete, because I don’t think the president is stupid or naive.
The president knew as well as everyone that the Republicans are ruthless, and just might hold the debt ceiling hostage. He did this rather than getting it passed with the tax cut deal in December like he should have (which ignores the fact that a tax cut deal should have been cut way earlier) — a time where HE had a lot more leverage than the Republicans.
This says that he wanted to cut spending. Is it a matter of what he truly believes, or that he thinks it’s better for a few reasons:
1.) Independents will like it (I find this arguable, but stupid)
2.) He could potentially get a deal and back-load the cuts.
3.) Triangulation. “Look at those unreasonable hippies! I’m such an adult.”
Which is all fine and good. That just might improve his election chances. But he has absolutely no concern for the Democratic platform or other Democrats down-ticket, nevermind liberalism in general.
That is our problem. Whether or not he believes this junk is immaterial. He might be splitting the GOP into two parts, but in a way he’s also splitting the Democratic party.
Ewww…I typed that way too quickly and it doesn’t read right in some spots. Either way you should get the gist.
No worries, mate. It reads fine.
I agree.
A great deal of what Booman writes is (IMO) correct. But Obama seems to frequently leave his own side out in the cold. I read that Pelosi and Reid are meeting with him right now, I hope Pelosi gives him an earful. Obama does not seem to understand who is actually on his side. It’s confusing.
I am no big fan of Pelosi, but right now I do not want Obama left alone with any republicans. I would prefer she be in the room with him anytime he meets with them. How sad is that?
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Remind me again, just exactly which side IS Obama on? I have yet to hear him actually say something like “My base, the Democrats, want” or “My supporters” or “The policies of the Democratic Party ”
He is the president of the whole country, OK, OK, OK, ALLRIGHT ENOUGH! He had better remember who elected him, who voted for him, who paid into the OFA, etc etc.
I know Booman thinks Obama is the best politician around. I just don’t see it anymore. Why throw SS and Medicare into the mix when those are the themes on which we can regain the House and possibly maintain the Senate? That ruins the messaging, hurts the brand, and just pisses off parts of the left.
To quote Elizabeth Warren: “I’m saving my rocks for Republicans!” maybe you can try it sometimes.
And you all wonder why Republicans win! No matter what they do, no matter what they say somehow someone on the left, and the MSM twists themselves into a pretzel to blame Obama. This is all Obama’s fault!? Then you have the media whores of the lib elites going on tv and putting it all on Obama and then criticize him for messaging. How the fuck does that work?
To be a Democratic president is like being Germany during both World Wars. Fighting on an Eastern and Western flank. Ultimately they didn’t have too much success.
Sigh. You know, it’s not that I’m not open to reading points of view different from mine, or that are more “chicken little” than mine. After all, maybe it’s not that the other person is “chicken little.” Maybe I’m an ostrich with my head in the sand. Lord knows I’ve spent years in denial about other parts of my life.
Anyway, I started reading this post, somehow missing that it was StevenD, and felt a growing concern. But I kept reading because after all, maybe there was something to it. Then I read this:
“Obama has adopted the strategy of spending cuts, even to the safety net, because that’s what David Plouffe told him to do if he wants to get re-elected.”
“Goddammit!” I said. “This can only be StevenD!!” I scrolled up, and sure enough…
So I quit reading.
Anyway — StevenD. You completely undermine your message when you say something as blatantly and pointlessly disparaging — and more to the point, clearly unsupportable — as Obama is just doing what David Plouffe tells him to.
I get it: You don’t like the man. Can we move on now?
The Republicans “won a huge victory” because of Obama’s inaction on the economy. The Republican party was dead. Dead. Until Barack Obama revived it.
Blaming the 2010 midterm disaster for Obama’s woes is pretty funny.
Steven:
I remember Elizabeth Drew well from the Jimmy Carter days–yes, she has been an inside-the-beltway journalist since the ’70’s, and she was pretty good for her time. Like all of them, she became ossified over the years. So when you say “In effect, Drew claims that her sources show why Obama has become a deficit hawk”, you are choosing to believe in her sources–most likely other ossified Washington insiders–so many of whom hate Obama the interloper because on so many fronts, he doesn’t play by their rules. Excuse me if I’m not surprised that such people would trash Obama, or that they would interpret his political maneuvering as caving and weakness. They certainly did it BEFORE he was elected when he was calmly dismantling the vaunted Clinton machine.
You say “as Drew’s reporting shows, Obama own actions this year have often enabled the worst and most cynical among the Republicans to give no quarter in negotiations.” This makes me wonder, whether or not you are fully aware of who and what we’re dealing with in today’s Republican Party. To me, it’s life or death for the country–I think it’s that serious. They have worked and plotted for 30 years to dismantle what it took decades to build, and they have chose Clinton’s presidency to do a test run, and now Obama’s election as the moment to come fully out in the open with it. So the New Deal, Medicare, voting rights, unions, abortion rights and even birth control are openly under assault from an entire political party and a majority of the Supreme Court.
I grew up in Washington long before the internet era or the 24-hour a day news frenzy. In Washington back in the day, if you were a news junkie, you knew a lot more about the dirty truths about sausage-making than the average American, but you understood that there was a disconnect between how things worked and the way they were presented to the public. It was never pretty, but it was largely hidden from view. I often have the feeling that so many of today’s news junkies, like the legions of commenters on Daily Kos, really are utterly naive about how the political game is played. They seem to take everything said at face value, when in fact so much of what is said publicly is for calculated political effect. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have probably never said anything in the past 20 years that wasn’t scripted for political effect.
So Steven, when you cross-posted this at KOS this afternoon, the effect was immediate and predictable. The comments streamed in: someone said that someone said that Obama did such and such. OMG! He should run in the Republican primary. Does that make you feel as if you’ve made a meaningful contribution to the debate?
This is a war. I believe that things are actually far, far worse than we know, and Obama is fighting the war on our behalf, using a lot of feinting and misdirection. I grew up worshiping Muhammed Ali–first as a great, great athlete, but then even more so as a conscientious objector to the war in Vietnam. He sacrificed the prime of his career, banned from boxing, his livelihood. When he later stepped into the ring with George Forman, who had literally knocked the estimable Joe Frazier across the ring, he took a ferocious, strategic beating, then knocked Forman out. Rope-a-dope.
You’re right Bill. It is a war. And they are insane. Every single thing you wrote I agree with.
But in a war all weapons should be used. And words matter, and can be used. Most people pay no attention to the sausage making, but they have a tendency to LISTEN to the POTUS. When he says that the deficit is the most important issue we face, when he compares government finances to family finances, when he says everyone must sacrifice, even those on the bottom, he is believed. And a battle in that war is lost.
Don’t get me wrong. I have NEVER said ‘use the bully pulpit’. But at least stand for something.
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Thanks for the description, and I agree this is a war, this is it; and agree with your assessment of Obama. Also think Obama made the correct decision to “waste” his political capital on hcr rather than more stimulus and jobs – for lots of reasons; but one, he took the offensive, building the safety net on something we all knew all republican opposed. jobs, republicans claim to care about.
So it’s the President’s fault that a bunch of insane ideologues who’ve spent the last six months demonstrating terrible political judgment seriously underestimated him?
Makes sense to me.
That is just a false statement about April Budget Deal.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/budget/cbo-says-budget-deal-will-cut-spending-by-only-352-million-thi
s-year-20110413
Honestly, my issue is not eliminating Fox News. Republicans are going after Democratic Institutions all over the country and we allow Fox News in the WH to pretend they are a “news” organization. I would black ball them. Go after Talk Radio. This is a war.
This is just not the White House’s responsibility though.
Also, I would still blame economy on GW Bush. How many times do you hear Bush Tax cuts? “Tough Slog getting out of GW Bush Economy” Or Republicans want “GW Bush economic policies.” Republicans STILL talk crap about Jimmy Carter 30 years later.
Although I find nitpicking the White House a very futile activity and their message game has been on point lately. The revenues framing has been crucial to countering the tax cuts are awesome always dogma ingrained in Americans.
As always, I am constantly amazed how one president can freak out both parties simultaneously.
Wasn’t Elizabeth Drew the punching bag for Fred Barnes and Michael Barone on the McLaughlin Group? Not that that was an unusual occupation in the 1990s for Democrats.
There is no need to repeat Keynesian economic arguments. Even Wall Street knows that we are not in an economic crisis; we are in a political crisis. Yeah, yeah. Wall Street had a hand in that too.
And our political crisis has been dragging down the global economy, which has been waiting for the American locomotive of the global economy to start up again.
Our political crisis lies in the fact that for thirty years the American public has been living in La-La Land. The first decade was their own damn fault. But when the mighty Republican Wurlitzer got going, the noise in the tractor cab was so great that pretty level-headed folks started buying economic garbage that served the interests of business owners large and small. No wonder they are getting screwed as employees, screwed as independent contractors, and screwed as consumers.
This is the frame that a huge part of the country is in, consciously or unconsciously. When a friend of mine who works for state government in IT is cheering the state budget cuts, you begin to wonder what’s in the water.
And that frame infected the Democratic Party more than a decade before Barack Obama ran for his first office as a Democrat.
I got into a tangle with Armando about Kent Conrad’s responsibility for this whole downward path by using his power as chair of the Budget Committee (key to reconciliation) to extort a Deficit Commission as the price of passing health care reform through reconciliation. I do believe that Conrad is one of the key explanations for the weird behavior of the President. No doubt he got the info on who had the power in the Senate and who didn’t during his brief stay in the Senate. And learned that Max Baucus and Kent Conrad were not to be messed around with.
Here’s my counter-narrative to Drew’s. And not any more flattering.
Obama found out during the transition period that he did not have his caucus with him on a lot of the more ambitious items the public saw on his agenda. Especially folks in the employ of insurance companies and deficit hawks like Conrad and Baucus. And mindful of how Daniel Patrick Monyihan shut down Hillarycare, Obama resolved to see if the Congress could move something through without him doing much beyond making sure the process kept moving forward to a legislative end. And he wrestled it through under as difficult opposition as any president has faced.
The fact that there was growing support for the public option scared the crap out of the Republicans. Passing a health care reform bill with a public option would end their hope of any majority anytime soon. Well that was Dick Armey’s and Karl Rove’s fear (and probably the Koch brothers as well)–and thus with the massive help of FoxNews the Tea Party was born. And splintered. And began to take on a life of its own. But it did accomplish one thing in August 2009. It scared too large a number of Democrats in Congress away from a non-controversial health care reform bill. The public option was pulled rather than risk a failing vote with Democrats voting to kill it.
During late 2009 and early 2010 there was talk of green shoots in the economy. In other economic downturns that would be enough to get money off the table and back to work. But the extend-and-pretend strategy of dealing with the mortgage crisis was not working; the housing market could not generate growth. The automobile industry could not pick up its traditional role in the 1950s and 1960s. The economy was stuck and there was no political capital for another stimulus. And the health care bill did not get settled until March 2010.
But here we get to the big mistake the undid the 2010 election. OFA was instrumental in the election. Folks in OFA wanted to have some input into the administration and thought they had earned some access. But OFA was turn over to the DNC and Tim Kaine allowed it to wilt. And Kaine allowed state candidates in Virginia to distance themselves from the scary black man, thus validating his scariness with the voters. Which lost the governorship of Virginia. And set the media narrative that lost the governorship of New Jersey and Ted Kennedy’s old seat in Massachusetts. (An internal party fight also helped do that one in.) Why? There was not additional troops working to turn out the vote. The elections reverted to “normal” voting patterns. As did the 2010 mid-terms.
With the way the media reported 2010, of course Obama and his advisers read it wrong from inside the bubble. And the failure of the Senate (once again the Senate) to get an extension of unemployment insurance benefits passed laid the groundwork for the disastrous lame-duck session. Which led to….
So after the disastrous FY2011 continuing resolution deal in March (notice that we are not operating out of a budget anymore), the President and the Democratic leadership have been in muddling through mode. No grand plan, just rope-a-dope tactical negotiation–hoping for an opening and a clear punch. It is about a deal, sure, but it is more about the President’s re-election. And I would argue that should that not occur the political and economic crisis that we are in will be much greater. So it is not selfish to keep an eye on that in the negotiation of a new debt ceiling or whatever it is that is being negotiated. And it is not lying to lay out what is on the table when you say that everything is on the table.
The whole idea that one needs to explain Obama really is an attempt to make him a scapegoat for the failure of the Democratic caucus in Congress to deliver the results the public requires. And it exposed the degree to which the K-Street rot had infected the Democrats in Congress, even those who posture as progressives (“take progressive stands”). And it exposed an even serious problem with all of Congress. Congress relates to their constituents through propaganda and favors (“constituent services”). Congress doesn’t listen to people. Congress has even shut off any means of actually hearing the nuance of what their constituents are saying. And in frustration, the advocacy of actions to members of Congress has become a professionalized spam operation. Which only makes things worse. And an astroturf operation in which advocates in DC organize events in Congressional Districts to pressure Congress to do stuff that maybe the folks doing the advocating don’t really want them to do.
If we don’t get rid of our fixation on Barack Obama’s gifts and failings and start to deal with that, we will lose our republic to the corporations. Politicians can’t do that for us. Indeed we need to be about liberating politicians from the need to sell their souls to corporations in order to get re-elected.
The problem, a difficult one, is winning elections without using expensive media propaganda. Getting the 170,000 folks that you need, getting them to vote, and vote for your candidate. And deconstruction the media carpet bombing so that it doesn’t cause a lizard brain decision when they get into the polling booth.
Oh, and that’s all before we talk about election integrity.
Meh. Default. That’s small potatoes if we don’t do the job that needs to be done on beating the media blitz.
Yglesias:
I don’t know what it’s going to take to get it through a lot of the Left’s head on this issue. “We need to go third party!” No, we need to do what the Republicans did. Third parties are a waste of time — assuming you even put any time and effort into them (which most people on the left don’t, as organizing is hardwork and time consuming).
Third parties can work, but they must be more than some self-important (even if competent) asshole going for the brass ring. Probably the most successful, in terms of following and shaping policy, third party was the Socialist Party of Eugene V. Debs and Norman Thomas. Without them and Huey Long’s crazy candidacy the New Deal likely would not have been so bold. But there were Socialist members of Congress, who did not have to operate as independents.
But the progressive pipe dream right now is just childish piquie, Red Queen style. Instead of “off with their heads”, it’s “Primary him” or “Run against him in the general election”.
And I think that view is likely geographically concentrated in one of the progressive echo chambers in the country.
As I keep harping, know the geography and know the math. You have X number of precincts in a Congressional District to work in which you have to get 170,000 votes committed in order to win. And you need an 80%-90% conversion rate of those people who actually vote. To get those, you need networks of people who can virally market a candidacy in a way that is not undermined by media campaigns and does not show up quickly in media coverage. And a GOTV operation that does not allow any excuse to be real: child care, transportation, dog sitting, whatever.
If you can do this for a third party, it is that much easier to do in a primary when the vote total needed to win is much less–and winning the primary gets you strong help from the party apparatus–unless you are Alvin Greene.
Getting together your filing fee is the first step in organizing your network. How many people will contribute to your filing fee. If you can get 10,000 people to contribute 1/10,000 of the fee you have a great seed for your network.
Too many progressives are not thinking this way. They want to elect a dictator who gets it all done to their satisfaction.
Ultimately the biggest challenge is to remove money from the equation. As long as no one can win without the support of billionaires nothing will change on the national level.
I don’t know how to get there. I know that Sweden, for example has an interesting system: legislators get the national average salary and not a penny more — even a penny of outside income is considered a national scandal. And, like most modern parliamentary systems, Sweden is structured to reward voting for party, not person, so the cost of campaigning is greatly reduced and can be publicly financed.
Germany has a variant on the same approach, interestingly set up by the American occupiers after WW2. It also works, yet both are structured to essentially eliminate the radical fringe parties that can cause damage to parliamentary structures which are forced to create coalitions with them (example: Israel).
Yet in the U.S. the money influence has always been strong and never has been stronger than it is currently. There are so many legal ways to funnel millions to your friendly representative — if you have those millions. Book deals, hiring the spouse for bullshit work at insane salaries, access to special investments, etc.
I have no clue how to get rid of that in the U.S. It seems the moneyed interests have all the cards. But if ever the “people” ever get a majority again item #1 on the agenda must be to destroy the money-based legislative system.
Not gonna happen without a revolution. I mean, maybe I’m just being a lazy thinker here — which is partially true because I’m not particularly innovative on government schemes when it seems every possible method has been tried — but it would seem the only way to remove money from politics would be to go parliamentary (which isn’t full-proof, but greatly reduces the amount needed), or stifle free-speech (not an option in my book).
Or we could make the stupid election season smaller. Whenever I watch Canadian elections it seems they’re over before they even start.
I can’t disagree. I have no idea how to make this happen. But until it does I figure we’re screwed royally.
Remember Mile High Stadium, August, 2008? All those people full of the “Audacity to Hope” cheering for Obama? The people want the kind of change he campaigned on, dammit. If the last 2.5 years it the best he could do for those people given the constraints of our system, then our system deserves to be destroyed.
I have to be honest, though…the right-wing scares me into complacency on a system revamp anyway. I’m too afraid of what would take the place of what we already have. I mean, I have Republican friends grieving over the fact that we “banned waterboarding.” These people are sick.
Yes, it can get worse. But if it doesn’t get better we’re totally screwed anyway. This never-before-seen heatwave in the US is just the latest example of the ever-increasing frequency of never-before-seen weather events. In 2011 they’ve been coming at the rate of one per month. Our current system is incapable of acknowledging the problem, let alone addressing it.
Money is in the equation because big media buys are necessary to overcoming public common sense. Money gets removed from the equation when those media buys no longer work to get people elected. And it is only then that you can institute the reforms that other countries have to rein in corruption.
In the US, the biggie is going to take a Constitutional amendment defining the status and obligations of large institution (corporations and religious bodies that behave like corporations).
I’ve been proposing a variant of the Swedish plan for about two months now without knowing that that was their scheme for paying legislators. I say variant because I index it to the median family income instead of the national average salary.
One of the origins of the progressive movement of a hundred years ago was in campaigns to clean up the influence of money and patronage in government decision-making. This is the “good government” movement that the late Paul Weyrich derided as the “goo-goo’s”. And Weyrich made about as straightforward as statement of what the corporatocracy wants as anyone. They want only their people to vote; they don’t want everyone to vote.
what is your proposal? any ideas about de-fanging corporate media buys?
these are some good ads and not expensive from the production point of view:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/hmm-labor-backed-ad-says-scandal-plagued-goper-has-left-b
ehind-wis-families.php
but there’s a way to make the ads that undercuts the overproduce (lying) ads as well, for example the Tim Pawlenty overproduced ads
To me that’s the biggest thing. Obama is not going to be there forever. Work to change and influence these institutions. Attack at the local and state level like the rightists did. I don’t know when the presidency became the focal point of everything in our system. Reagan and Bush really fucked us up.
This situation – the Tea Party playing a substantial role – is the result of eccentric conservative billionaires (Murdoch, Koch) getting involved in politics. The Tea Party would not have the power it did (and still does) if not for Fox News Channel or Americans for Prosperity.
There are other factors at play, but the role played by billionaires cannot be ignored. This is what happens when money in politics is unregulated and uncapped.
It’s more likely to result in a conservative tilt of the body politic, but could be liberal – if the players were so inclined – or even some oddball other doctrine (e.g Technocracy Movement of the 1930’s).
If liberals want to win this fight they have to stop believing that the Republicans are insane.
What exactly is irrational about the Republican position?
They held together against the Democrats after Obama’s election and the worst that happened from their perspective was that Democrats passed Mitt Romney’s health care plan, complete with the Orin Hatch’s extremely unpopular mandate. And that was when Democrats had a “filibuster proof” majority.
They’ve prevented most of Obama’s middle of the road nominees from even seeing a vote on the floor of the Senate in a manuver that has become so routine it doesn’t even merit news coverage anymore.
They prevented any real action against Wall Street, while forcing auto workers to take a pay cut to keep the American auto industry afloat. They went on to win a huge victory in last November’s elections allowing them to attack public unions in a dozen states and pass Republican friendly voting laws and redistricting plans.
And immediately after they won last November, President Obama gave them a Christmas present by extending George Bush’s tax cuts.
They haven’t paid a price for anything they’ve done to date. In fact, they’ve hit the jackpot. What is insane about that?
from the point of view of the economy, those goals are insane. (or do you really think Mexico is a worthy role model for the USA?)
It doesn’t matter what you or I think. The Republicans are doing very well enacting their agenda. Their goal is a world in which the fortunes of the wealthy are protected and labor is cheap. They’re doing a very good job at that.
They’re on the verge of getting a Democratic president to take the blame for cuts to social programs. Programs which they want to destroy. That may be evil, but it’s not insane.
Democrats and liberals keep losing because they’ve convinced themselves that Republicans are happy to burn the whole place down out of spite. But Republicans want things. It should be pretty obvious what those things are by now. Make them pay a price for it.
It is my perception that Obama has outmaneuvered the GOP in a very difficult situation. I agree with Kuttner: “Obama Holds the Cards — if he will play them well.”
http://bluepurplered.com/2011/07/24/robert-kuttner-obama-holds-the-cards-if-he-will-play-them-well/
So then I think, OK, it remains to be seen just how he will play them, but I do think he does hold the cards. And I would think that Obama is in this position through an extremely good sense of politics, and if he has gotten this far that way, then I would expect that he will play those cards well.
But if I am to believe Elizabeth Drew, Obama is a political moron as well as a milquetoast (and I know so many Democrats agree with that evaluation). Therefore the only conclusion I can come to is that Obama, the incredible idiot/sellout, holds the cards not because of any discernible skills, intellect, or vision on his part, but simply because the Republicans are even more stupid than he is.
The GOP are more stupid, for sure, but they are also incredibly vicious, unscrupulous, implacable and reckless. That being the case, I don’t see how Obama cab possibly be the visionless, brainless wimp that he is portrayed as being. It makes more sense to me that, as with any poker player, it has something to do with luck, good AND bad, but that Obama has played his hands with great skill to get to the point of “holding the cards”.
Therefore Elizabeth Drew has to be wrong.