Jennifer Steinhauer has a good article up at the New York Times. It’s really a kind of landscape of Republican schizophrenia. There are the people who are crazy, the people who pretend to be crazy, and the people who cynically use the crazy for their own political purposes. This makes it hard to lead the GOP, especially if you want to pivot to a more conciliatory strategy. Maybe a third of the Republican caucus actually has internalized their own ridiculous talking points, and another third will look like the rankest hypocrites if they flip-flop on them now. Finally, there’s the leadership, which wants to protect as many seats as possible and can read the polling data that says that American people are totally fed-up with their obstruction.
Keep in mind that, for the leadership, obstruction has been more about tactics than principle. And when the political landscape changes, the leadership would like to be able to change tactics. They do not want to block a jobs bill. They want to whittle it down considerably, but they want something to pass. There are a lot of rank-and-file Republicans sitting in blueish seats who are getting an earful from their constituents. They don’t want to filibuster a bill or simply fail to take it up in the House.
Yet, opposing the president when it is possible to do so has become an article of faith. Why pass anything when you have the technical power to kill it? Why help the president at all? Why not continue to highlight the weakness of the executive branch and keep the left fighting among themselves?
The answer is simple. People will be really angry with the Republicans if they do that, and they will punish them at the polls. The truth is, the president and the economy have been weakened enough. Further weakening will backfire and the GOP leadership understands this. The problem is they’ve created some really bad habits,, and they’ve poisoned the well so much that it’s hard to flip a switch and work with the president in a constructive way.
Plus, do not forget that John Boehner has demonstrated repeatedly that he is not very good at his job, and it’s not clear he can deliver even when his intention is to do so.
Rachel Maddow did a piece about the insanity of the GOP. How they turn against what they were for if the President says he likes it. She even had a name for it.
Booman, let us know if, in your opinion, the poisoning of the well reaches the point of threatening potential Republican pickups in the Senate. I think the house will change hands barring Democratic political malpractice, but I’m always also hopeful that changing conditions could tilt your very convincing pessimism about the Senate. Let’s say an Obama/Perry race with a slightly improving job situation, leading to 2008 type electoral margins?
4.1 Democrats/Independents retiring (6 seats)
4.1.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)- safe
4.1.2 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii- safe
4.1.3 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico- toss up
4.1.4 Kent Conrad of North Dakota- loss
4.1.5 Jim Webb of Virginia- toss up
4.1.6 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin- toss up
4.2 Democrats/Independents seeking re-election (17 seats)
4.2.1 Dianne Feinstein of California- safe
4.2.2 Tom Carper of Delaware- safe
4.2.3 Bill Nelson of Florida- lean Dem
4.2.4 Ben Cardin of Maryland- safe
4.2.5 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan- lean Dem
4.2.6 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota- lean Dem
4.2.7 Claire McCaskill of Missouri- toss up
4.2.8 Jon Tester of Montana- toss up
4.2.9 Ben Nelson of Nebraska- lean GOP
4.2.10 Bob Menendez of New Jersey- lean Deem
4.2.11 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York- safe
4.2.12 Sherrod Brown of Ohio- lean Dem
4.2.13 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania- safe
4.2.14 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island- safe
4.2.15 Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)- safe
4.2.16 Maria Cantwell of Washington- safe
4.2.17 Joe Manchin of West Virginia- safe
4.3 Republicans retiring (2 seats)
4.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona- lean GOP
4.3.2 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas- lean GOP
4.4 Republicans seeking re-election (8 seats)
4.4.1 Richard Lugar of Indiana- safe unless primaried out
4.4.2 Olympia Snowe of Maine- safe unless primaries out
4.4.3 Scott Brown of Massachusetts- lean GOP
4.4.4 Roger Wicker of Mississippi- safe
4.4.5 Dean Heller of Nevada- toss up
4.4.6 Bob Corker of Tennessee- safe
4.4.7 Orrin Hatch of Utah- safe even if primaried out
4.4.8 John Barrasso of Wyoming- safe
As you can see, we have our work cut out for us. We must get pick-ups in Arizona, Nevada, and Massachusetts and hope that Snowe and/or Lugar are primaried out of contention. We have to protect some seats like Tester’s, McCaskill’s, and the two Nelsons.
We just don’t have enough targets. Can we compete in Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming, and Utah? I just don’t think so.
But the Senate elections can still swing one way or the other. We have a chance to pick up a couple of seats, unfortunately there is no path to sixty votes.
It would be damn fun to try—just to pin down Republican resources.
Well, it will interesting to see what would happen to Democrats’ chances in Deep Red America if Rick Perry is the nominee and he can’t shake his position on Social Security. Once safe could become unsafe, and down-ticket races could be impacted.
But, you give me candidates for:
Utah:
Mississippi:
Wyoming:
Tennessee:
In Utah, Jim Matheson could make a go at a Tea Partier who has knocked off Hatch.
I don’t have many good ideas for the other three states. In Mississippi, the huge black population at least give a Democrat a solid foundation. The problem is Democrats can’t seem to crack the high teens with the white population.
I thought there was no tea party challenge to Hatch now that that Chaffetz guy decided to stay in the house? Wasn’t the news that the tea party was substantially cutting back its “official” support for a lot of these primaries? Without Koch money, it’d have to be a true grassroots thing now.
Indiana would seem to be a better example. Lugar could conceivably lose.
I hate to say this, but I kinda wish Dems weren’t running an open lesbian in Wisconsin.
After all the shit Walker and Co. have put that state through, to see Sen. Tommy Thompson because his opponent is a “carpetmuncher” would be too much. Fucking crazy ass country.
Oh COME ON! Tammy is the best candidate we could possibly hope for. She is the best of the best. Who cares about her orientation? I doubt that Wisconsinites do. They might if she were a gay man but she’s a lesbian woman and most (old) people probably don’t even realize that. And if her republican opponent brings it up, it will probably hurt him alot more than it hurts her.
I’m tempted to send her some money. She’s awesome.
You’re right. Most homophobes, who tend to be male, hate gay men, but don’t hate lesbians, just sort of laugh at them. Some think this is because they have secret doubts about their own orientation. They could vote for a lesbian woman (secretly in the voting booth) while making jokes in public.
We will see. There certainly will be demonization. I agree with BJ. The Dems need to ensure that we have the strongest candidate.
She IS the strongest candidate. She is an immensely popular member of the house for her district. She is absolutely amazing. No one thinks about her sexual orientation when they vote for her now and, quite frankly, I am offended that anyone would even question her abilities based on these things.
She is loved by her constituents and she is a champion of the labor movement in Wisconsin. They (labor) are really in a powerful position right now there. She can definitely win this thing if we make sure she’s got the funding needed to defeat the Koch Brothers.
If we can get her into the Senate, it will be like having another Al Franken. Once someone makes it to the Senate it is really hard to get rid of them. She will serve us well for many years. She’s totally with us.
Here are the seats:
<em<Democrats/Independents retiring (6 seats)</em>
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Jim Webb of Virginia
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Democrats/Independents seeking re-election (17 seats)
Dianne Feinstein of California
Tom Carper of Delaware
Bill Nelson of Florida
Ben Cardin of Maryland
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Independent)
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Joe Manchin of West Virginia
Republicans retiring (2 seats)
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Republicans seeking re-election (8 seats)
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Scott Brown of Massachusetts
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
Dean Heller of Nevada
Bob Corker of Tennessee
Orrin Hatch of Utah
John Barrasso of Wyoming
What would have to happen for the Republicans to lose big in the Senate in 2012?
Major shifts in the political culture of Texas, Indiana, Mississippi, Nevada, Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, and Wyoming. And folks in Maine electing a real Democrat. Scott Brown’s is the only clearly vulnerable seat.
But look at what Democrats have to defend. North Dakota and Virginia. Also Feinstein, Carper, McCaskill, the Nelson twins, Casey, Tester, and Manchin. Which of that bunch can you get excited about? I mean 2008 Obama excited about.
Getting Democrats to fight amongst themselves isn’t hard; in fact, they seem to relish it. I guess they are just being true to themselves. What is clearly escaping them is President Obama is still the best thing the party has going for it. Congressional Democrats can not separate themselves from him and win. If liberals/progressives think they can keep the Senate and retake the House without him winning re-election, they are out of their damn minds. And that goes for the CBC too. If the President loses, it’s going to be a body blow to the African American Community then reckoning. Members of the CBC who were once unbeatable in their districts are going to be labeled Judas Toms, and many of them will be successfully challenged. Democrats better get their shit together and unite or they are going down and God help the vulnerable communities liberals/progressives claim to care so much about.
Democrats better get their shit together . . .
They’re already blowing it. The DCCC is already running attack ads against Dan Ludgren here in central California, fourteen months away from the election. F*cking idiots.
Should be: “Lungren”
That might have something to do with moving him on the American Jobs Act. Just a thought.
And that goes for the CBC too. If the President loses, it’s going to be a body blow to the African American Community then reckoning. Members of the CBC who were once unbeatable in their districts are going to be labeled Judas Toms, and many of them will be successfully challenged.
Give it a rest. Unemployment is how high in the African-American community? So I think your premise is flawed. If the President loses next year, he’ll have no one else to blame but himself.
It’s a democratic tradition in a big-tent party.
In the midst of FDR’s presidency, Will Rogers said:
Who is the “they” that does not realize that President Obama is the best thing the party has going for it? Polling shows that he far and away is more trusted by Democrats than the Democrats in Congress. And no one can come up with a credible primary challenger.
The strategic issue is that if he thinks he can win re-election without keeping the Senate and retaking the House… Coattails don’t work the way the media thinks they do. The top of the ticket is marginally decisive. If the bottom of the ticket sucks, the top of the ticket won’t get the votes.
The members of the CBC who will be most vulnerable will be those that went down the compromise-with-Republicans-no-matter-what path. I don’t see a whole lot of those. Jim Clyburn is the one most at risk because he positioned himself in the leadership and thus is obligated to go along with the leadership’s position.
Historically, Democrats don’t really get it going in a campaign until Labor Day before the election. This time, they better be out of the gates into final form after the convention—no August vacation next year.
In 2008 I went to the Democratic caucuses here in NV and then I went home and watched a Republican one on C-Span. We were SO un-organized and disagreeable, while the Republicans operated like Hitler’s dream – so authoritarian and so organized. Their train runs on time and our folks can’t agree on what the train schedule even says.
It was the same when I went to the County and State conventions as a Democratic delegate. (Multiple ballots for everything, petitions for and against everything in the party platform, etc.)
It was almost embarrassing until the Republican State Convention blew up in a dispute between Ron Paul supporters and the mainstream
NazisRepublicans… they called off the convention altogether and the McCain-supporting leaders escaped unharmed.Damn, I’m SO looking forward to doing it all again next year.
Anyhoo, I like living in a Democracy, where people don’t always agree or always understand the instructions. So I guess I’m hanging out with the right crowd after all.
The Repukeliscum are today the party of despair, the party of “it can’t happen”, the party of “we can’t do”, the party of America that is unable to do anything. If we listen to the Repukeliscum, we are poor, helpless, incapable people. We can’t invent, we need foreign talent. We can’t build anything, we don’t have the money. We can’t repair our bridges, they have to collapse.
Whatever happened to “the America that can do things?”
Obama needs to rediscover AMERICAN HOPE, and look to the future.