I’m not encouraged by the early returns out of NY-09 or NV-02. I don’t really care about these seats. The New York seat won’t even exist next year, and the Nevada seat is not friendly territory. But it’s depressing that anyone, anywhere would vote Republican after their performance this summer. The numbers out of Brooklyn are a bit ridiculous. It’s not a part of Brooklyn I am familiar with, and it sure doesn’t like the Democrat in this contest. I’m not sure what’s going on there.
I’m sure that this has something to do with the results, but the exact dynamics of it escape me.
This is why we’re losing NY-9:
Meet New York City’s Terror-Linked Political Kingmaker
In NV-2, where I live, we don’t have much in yet. But the bulk of the population is in Washoe County (0% in at this time.)
Kate Marshall (D) is not expected to win but it should be a very close race. There is alot of Obama hate around here from some of the gun-toting racist white folks but Kate Marshall is the better candidate BY FAR. I sure hope our Latino friends got out the vote for her today (or in early voting.) She’s gonna need it.
Dad and I voted a week or so back when I brought him to the library. We’re hopeful for her, but not overly optimistic.
BTW, all yesterday and today, the DCCC has been running Google Blast Ads on every site I go to (including this one) saying to go vote out the Tea Party to everyone in NV-2. Unfortunately they ran the same ad both days that says “Polls are open tomorrow.”
Yes, they ran that ad all day TODAY. Oh to be in the oh-so-organized Democratic party.
she’s losing Washoe. It’s done.
Please don’t say that. 6 of 478 precincts in Washoe is not a win. Let’s wait until the statisticians call it. It really could be close.
Or it could be not close at all and this Marshall person gets the shit kicked out of her instead.
Sure, she’s down 20% right now, but 58% of the precincts still have to report! All is still possible in Magical Thinking World.
I don’t recall you being so mean before. Maybe I’m confusing you with someone else.
It’s sad though. This Mark Ammodei guy who will likely win is just the nastiest Tea Party kinda jerk you’d ever hope to not meet. But Kate’s campaign was handled so badly.
Maybe we can re-tool and knock him out in Nov 2012.
Your “close election” got called in an hour. I presume you can handle a little justified ribbing. If this had been even a 10 point loss, I wouldn’t have said anything, but to be the wrong way on a 60/40 election is just silly.
Then again, I’m sure some Mondale voters were convinced their guy was gonna win that night too. Hope (and denial) always springs eternal.
His point is you’re being a little cruel for no obvious reason.
Thank you. I was being HOPEFUL, against the odds, and I have this jerk poking my eyes out, like it’s MY fault or something. WTF?
Until Washoe came in, it was possible she could have a good night. You have nothing to apologize for. Optimism is much underrated.
By the way, please tell me you work for the Marshall campaign or something, Randy, because if you’re this clueless about your local scene, I’d hate to see your “success” rate at predicting statewide or national politics…
I don’t recall you being so mean before. Maybe I’m confusing you with someone else.
And it appears to have been called now for Ammodei. Wonderful. I’m not shocked, just disappointed.
Thanks for trying to win this. The TeaBagger people are simply disgusting.
You hit the nail on the head. The DCCC and the DNC suck. Not to mention that Marshall was endorsed by the Blue Dogs(talk about the kiss of death) and Welprin sucks as a candidate. He was picked by the NY machine and it shows.
Yes. Just because Washoe County has traditionally gone Republican, it’s only because until we had the 50-State Strategy introduced (Thank you, Howard Dean,) Democrats were forced to live in the closet. They were literally terrified to discuss their VERY liberal views because they’d be shouted down at every turn. Now, since Obama, they feel empowered to put the bumper sticker on the car, etc.
To think that what we want (or need) is a Blue Dog endorsement is absolutely insane. Thanks alot, triangulators in DC that have NEVER met any of us! Do they want Democrats to vote or are they hoping R’s will vote for a Democrat? Good luck with that. Thanks alot, assholes! We can get excited about a REAL actual LIBERAL who is not afraid of the word. But to advertise our candidate as a “conservative Democrat” is an outrage. We even outnumber the R’s in registration, slightly, thanks to Howard Dean and Obama. Dem’s here know the difference between an R and a D. We wanted to market our candidate for what she is. How do you think we took over most of the state government? Not by marketing them as Republican-lite, that’s for sure.
never mind that 56% of Penis-man’s constituents wanted him to stay in the seat.
but the DCCC knows best.
WTF? Spam maybe?
Hey Booman. Something’s not right with this comment (above.)
As soon as a few people troll rate it, it’ll disappear – poof!
That explains why it’s gone. I did not know that.
Actually, I deleted it, because it was, in fact, spam, and Boo has probably quite sensibly gone to bed. But I’m not used to the admin tools yet; the screen showed that it deleted the replies as well, but obviously it didn’t. No harm!
I’m awake for at least another hour. Election nights, even piss-poor ones, get me amped.
Question: how many congressional candidates have been elected by the ‘progressive left’? So far I think zero.
Maybe Jon Tester is the best example I can think of. Rep. Donna Edwards is another.
Thanks.
As far as I’m concerned a Democrat, a self-described progressive or Latino that would vote for a Republican today or keep their asses at home are the equivalent of so-called Christians who cheer for executions and allowing the uninsured to die.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/181073-dems-peril-in-ny-seat-sparks-fear-for-nov-12
Apparently the President only has 30% approval ratings in that NY district. That’s one wacky ass district. Maybe they should try to secede and become West Israel?
It explains a lot about the Anthony Weiner era though.
Yeah. Not sure about the Nevada district, but the New York district (and its Dem candidate) are very weird, and not good bellwethers.
The NV district could possibly turn to Obama in 2012, but it’s unlikely that we’ll pick it up in the House.
Huh. Just because it leans too red?
I thought Jonathan Bernstein’s take on the importance of tonights elections was good:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/why-the-special-elections-matter–and-why-they-do
nt/2011/03/28/gIQA6yWcPK_blog.html
Also, not sure if RandyH is reading this thread, but I’d be curious to hear his take on Sandoval’s endorsement of Perry today. I seem to recall he thought Sandoval had been a pretty reasonable governor up until now.
Nah, just look at how it’s trended in national elections. Obama did better there than both Kerry and Gore; he tied McCain. Obama also won the entire state by a wide margin, something around 13%. Both Kerry and Gore lost the entire state of Nevada by roughly the same percentage of 3%.
Now look at how the district has trended for individual House seats. When it’s been an incumbent, the Republican has won by a huge margin. The only time Dems came close was in 2006, and it was still a ways off at 9%.
I expect Nevada to be one of the key states in 2012, and I expect it to be closer than it was in 2008. I also expect Obama to win there due to the Latino and Hispanic vote. However, it’s going to be closer, and if he couldn’t win that district in 2008, he won’t win it in 2012…and if Obama can’t win it, there’s no chance someone in the House will.
Unless there’s a huge wave election again…but I still wouldn’t spend resources to pick it up.
Of course I’m not qualified to predict anything at all from the discussions in this thread.
BUT I expect that Obama will ultimately win the day in all of Nevada. I guess it depends on who the Republicans ultimately have up for offer. If the Republican is a Mormon, they will win. Otherwise, the majority of Nevadans will fall back in love with Obama, if they ever fell out of love.
That’s my 2 cents. But apparently it means nothing.
I think it’s a toss-up to win it all — he’ll definitely win districts 1 and 3. I think the Dems will pick up district 3 as well (if it’s a good candidate…) After all, in a wave election we barely lost that district in 2010.
But district 2, I just don’t think we’ll win it unless there is very large Hispanic turnout. Now, that could very well happen because we MUST win Nevada as a whole in the Senate. So due to that, the DCCC might think it’s worth pouring money into the race for the Senate seat anyway.
Also, it’s your own district, so that sometimes clouds judgment. Krystal Ball wasn’t my district, and I knew deep-down she wouldn’t win, but I still held out a lot of hope that she would win. She got crushed, of course — and the night of I accepted it virtually right away. But leading up to it I wanted to think she might pull off an upset.
What a name “Krystal Ball.” I see her on MSNBC as a commentator often and I always think that’s such a cool name for a prognosticator.
Now, the Senate race next year should be interesting. I would love for Shelley Berkely to beat Dean Heller, but I’m not sure she’ll win District 2. She might, but no one here knows her yet. She is from Southern Nevada (Vegas, district 1 and 3.) They know and love her there. No problem, she’ll win among them. But she needs to properly introduce herself to district 2 and explain why she’s better than the do-nothing Dean Heller, who currently (by appointment) occupies the Senate seat and represented District 2 in The House for a long time. Of course Heller’s problem is that districts 1 & 3 have no idea who he is and that’s where the bulk of the population is.
I don’t know why anyone here likes Dean Heller. He’s a nice guy with nice hair. That’s about it. He takes no strong positions on anything really and NEVER brings home the bacon because he doesn’t believe in that. So we get screwed.
“It’s not a part of Brooklyn I am familiar with, and it sure doesn’t like the Democrat in this contest. I’m not sure what’s going on there.”
I’m familiar with it. I should be, I grew up in that part of Brooklyn. Although it’s changed a lot since then. In my day that was bedrock Democrat territory.
First of all, it’s a gerrymandered district. You call it Brooklyn, but actually most of the district is in Queens.
Substantially white ethnics, both long-established residents and more prosperous immigrants. A mix of Republicans (Queens has always had a lot of Republicans) and “Reagan Democrats”. A lot of it goes back to this:
http://www.nysun.com/opinion/ocean-hill-brownsville-unleashing-american/76108/
Personally, I’m not getting too upset about it. It’s not hard GOP territory. I think the combination of Weener’s peckerdillos and the opportunity to stick it to Obama was too much for that district to resist.
A really good white ethnic Democratic candidate could take it back.
It won’t exist to take back.
Hey, I plumb forgot about that.
I wonder what they’ll come up with next. Partisan and racial/ethnic gerrymandering are a problem, because they allow the party to select the voters of its choice rather than the other way around. Its got a lot to do with the general sclerosis in congress.
Brooklyn as a whole remains a Democratic stronghold.
I hate to say this but I think that Obama will never win another election. I voted for him and consider myself a liberal and have seen a republican in the last 10 years that i would considering voting for. but the problem with Obama is that he is perceived as weak and people do not vote for weak candidates. We are essentially a pack animal and we gravitate towards who is ever the strongest. Look at Russia their seems to be a growing feeling that Stalin was not such a bad guy after all. The feeling among a lot if Iraqis is that Sadam was not such a bad guy either. The problem with Obama is that people see him as being weak of not have any convictions that he is willing to fight for. Whether this is the truth or not is almost immaterial the perception is that Obama will not stand and fight for his believes and people want some one that will. The republicans for years have managed to convince the voter that Democrats are weak and spineless and Obama by his actions has played into that. The average voter does not really listen to are care about the absurd things the republicans say what the average voter sees is that republicans are strong and will fight for what they believe in. And that is all that matters not what they believe in but the fact that they will fight for their believes. Obama has lost the faith of most americans. The democrats need to run some one like Dean or Grayson instead these are two candidates that the republicans will fear. I had a lot of respect and hope for Obama but he has failed as president and as party leader it is time for him to allow some one else to run in his place.