I try to understand Republicans. I really do. I certainly study them enough. In some ways, they are the most predictable of creatures, but in other ways you can never anticipate what they’re going to do. Rachel Maddow had a hilarious segment on her show last night where she laid out the case that Herman Cain is engaged in performance art and that his whole campaign is a prank. Part of her evidence is that Herman Cain has been quoting the Pokemon movie theme song but claiming that he is quoting a poet.
I referred to a different possibility last week, that Newt Gingrich might be the next flavor of the week. The latest ABC News-Washington Post Poll shows that Gingrich has cracked double-figures and is on the rise. He also had his best fundraising month in October, and a plurality of Republicans think he’s done the best job in the debates.
After Cain and Gingrich, I think the Republicans will be done window-shopping for a candidate. It doesn’t appear that Rick Perry is an acceptable alternative to Romney, and the GOP base isn’t going to suddenly embrace Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. That leaves only Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman as potential candidates-on-the-rise, and I don’t see that happening.
Here’s what we can look forward to if Newt wins the Republican nomination:
Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich promised on Friday evening in Iowa that if he wins his party’s nomination, he will follow President Obama around the country until Obama accepts a challenge to participate in Lincoln-Douglas style debates.
“I promise you, if you will help me on January 3, if I end up as the nominee, in my acceptance speech, if the president has not yet agreed, I will announce from that day forward for the rest of the campaign, the White House will be my scheduler,” Gingrich said. “And wherever the president appears, I will appear four hours later.”
Gingrich said he would challenge Obama to seven Lincoln-Douglas style debates lasting three hours each with no moderator and only a timekeeper. “I will concede that he can use a teleprompter,” Gingrich said.
Here’s a refresher on the Stephen Douglas’s position on slavery during the Lincoln-Douglas Debates.
Uniformity in the local laws and institutions of the different States is neither possible or desirable. If uniformity had been adopted when the Government was established, it must inevitably have been the uniformity of slavery everywhere, or else the uniformity of negro citizenship and negro equality everywhere.
…
I ask you, are you in favor of conferring upon the negro the rights and privileges of citizenship? (“No, no.”) Do you desire to strike out of our State Constitution that clause which keeps slaves and free niggers out of the State, and allow the free negroes to flow in, (“never,”) and cover your prairies with black settlements? Do you desire to turn this beautiful State into a free negro colony, (“no, no no,”) in order that when Missouri abolishes slavery she can send one hundred thousand emancipated slaves into Illinois, to become citizens and voters, on an equality with yourselves? (“Never,” “no.”) If you desire negro citizenship,(“yes, yes…yes”) if you desire to allow them to come into the State and settle with the white man, if you desire them to vote on an equality with yourselves, and to make them eligible to office, to serve on juries, and to adjudge your rights, then support Mr. Lincoln and the Black Republican party, who are in favor of the citizenship of the negro. (“Never, never.”) For one, I am opposed to negro citizenship in any and every form. (“yes, yes”)(Cheers.) Yes it is true I believe this Government was made on the white basis. (“Good good good.”) I believe it was made by white men are over the negros for the benefit of white men and their posterity forever, and I am in favor of confining citizenship to white men, men of European birth and descent, instead of conferring it upon negroes, Indians, and other inferior races. (“Good Good,” and “good for you.”) (“Douglas forever.”)(“Yes Yes,No No”)
Newt Gingrich doesn’t make that argument. Instead, he says that President Obama is the “most successful food stamp President in history,” and that “the Obama system is going to lead us down the path towards Detroit and destruction.” Or, as Joan Walsh summarized Gingrich’s campaign:
So let’s review: Welfare slur? Check. Tie to a troubled, mainly black city? Check. Specious association with African anti-colonialism? Check. Dire reference to Lincoln and the start of the Civil War, while campaigning deep in the heart of Dixie? Check. Suggestion we need a voter test? Check. Oh, and for good measure, calling liberals concerned about racial injustice “racist”? Check. Awesome: They’ve hit pretty much every way the GOP has used to divide Americans by race in the last 200 years!
Great job, Newt. You’ve developed the perfect platform to run a spirited GOP campaign that attracts a cadre of aggrieved white people.
Which may be why he’s on the rise in the polls. After all, developing a perfect platform to attract a cadre of aggrieved white people is what the Republican Party is all about. And let’s not forget that Gingrich was an early adopter of the Sharia Law lunacy. Everything about Gingrich’s campaign is completely predictable. But, what wasn’t predictable was that he’d be losing to a black man who quotes Pokemon.
Meanwhile:
I’ll have to see if I can find my Nuck Fewt button from the 90s.
I love that he’s apparently winning the debates. I guess someone has to.
I don’t know, Cain seems to be holding his own in the polls. It was the women’s fault ya know, and now he’s not just a DC outsider, he’s a victim of liberal media so he’s even more appealing.
btw, is Palin hibernating?
yeah, he is definitely getting a little boost out of being a creep, which is depressing.
But he doesn’t have anything like an actual ground game. And he doesn’t seem serious about building one. Every other candidate that has risen to challenge Romney has dropped way back down, sometimes (as with Bachmann) for no obvious reason. Well, I guess her decline coincided with Perry getting in the race and her campaign manager quitting, but she didn’t come back after Perry faltered out of the gate.
Cain is probably a case of a candidate peaking too soon.
I think Cain is a grifter like Sarah Palin, or Joe the Plumber. A political celebrity. A professional political celebrity.
To me Gingrich is the sickest of the GOP candidates, which is an accomplishment.
If Perry is truly no longer viable, then Romney will be the nominee. The rest is noise. I’m not nearly as nervous about this possibility as I was a few weeks ago though. Since the rise of OWS, Romney has come to appear a candidate uniquely unsuited to these times, i.e. the personification of the Wall Street asshole. I don’t think that’s going to change much between now and next November. Coupled with the fact that he’s a fairly crappy politician for this level of the game, and I’d say current polling (which has Romney and Obama about even) undersells Obama’s chances.
Moreover, even if Romney has this thing all tied up, what will be interesting to see is how long it takes him. Will everyone agree that the race is over after the first few primaries? Or will Cain, Perry, Gingrich, et al be able to string it out for months before Romney finally wins. The latter could really damage Romney for the general. I think that’s the game we’re watching now.
George Bush was the first MBA President.
So, America, are you up for another round?
The problem for Romney is he has the support of only a quarter of the electorate, and a good part of that percentage is truly unexcited about him. While he’s neck and neck against Cain, he’s getting shellacked by the anyone-but-Romney vote. So, he will grow weaker as the contest goes on and whittles down the number of alternatives.
To understand the problem a little better, imagine if all the leading voices in the progressive blogosphere had to suddenly start promoting the presidential candidacy of Evan Bayh. Most people just couldn’t do it and maintain any progressive credibility. So, they wouldn’t, as it would come at too high of a personal price. That’s why people like Rush Limbaugh aren’t coddling Romney. He can’t.
He’ll pivot when the choice is made for him, but not before.
And that’s why Romney will have a very hard time rapping this thing up. It seems impossible that anyone else could be the nominee, but then it also seems kind of crazy that Romney would be the man of the moment.
None of this makes any sense. And that’s why it is so hard predict.
That’s true. But as you say, the Limbaughs and their followers will pivot when the choice is made for them, which will be when Romney wins his astonishing default victory. The outcome isn’t hard to predict, but the schedule is.
I’m still a little mystified by why Perry’s support evaporated almost completely, given the other options. I mean, I heard he did some stuff related to immigration that the base didn’t like, but you think they’d forgive and forget at this point. The debates hurt him too I guess, but as I recall Dubya was also a bad debater. Obviously the guy is dumb as a bag of rocks, but that shouldn’t matter much in a GOP primary. Maybe he really is just a straight up crappy pol and is turning people off behind the scenes.
versus “wrapping this thing up” Boo, I’m curious do you use Dragon Naturally Speaking?
Love the Walker video
what great americians
Once upon a time, I considered Newt Gingrich one of the two Republicans that worried me this cycle (the other being Mike Huckabee).
But he’s clearly lost a step from the mid-1990s, when he was tying the Democrats in knots.
My take is that Gingrich tied the Democrats in knots through his leadership of the House GOP backbenchers, but he was a disaster as a front man. Clinton couldn’t beat the House GOP when it was like an aggressive octopus, but when it became Gingrich vs. Clinton it was a whole ‘nother story.
If it becomes Gingrich vs. Obama, I’ll be breaking out the popcorn.
Oh yeah! And for the low info voter, all they have to do is compare Obama’s wholesome family with Gingrich serving divorce pappers to his dying wife in the hospital. What a class guy! White women will love him! Not!
Having the name of a Dickens villain should lose him a few more votes.
Should.