Public Policy Polling tweets that their new national poll (to be released this afternoon) shows Newt Gingrich in the lead, while another polling outfit finds Gingrich and Cain in a statistical tie for the lead in Iowa. So, my predictions have been vindicated. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that this is the end of the flavor-of-the-month process. Rick Santorum will not get a turn, nor will Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. It’s going to be a three-way race between Romney, Cain, and Gingrich. If Cain falters in the face of more revelations of sexual misconduct, it could become a two-way race. Ordinarily, I’d argue the obvious, which is that Romney would rather face two strong conservative candidates than one, but that’s not necessarily the case. Cain and Gingrich have deep flaws but, with both of them in the race, those flaws have to share time. I think they benefit from avoiding the full power of the spotlight, as it shines on both of them. The Not Mitt Romney slice of the electorate is so huge (perhaps as big as 75% in some places) that there may be room for conservatives to split the vote and still beat Romney.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
My prediction was that Bachmann would stage a comeback. Other predictions: Dean for the win, Kerry for the win, and I’m just not lucky enough for McCain to tap Palin for VP
Why not Santorum?
you have to ask?
Yes, I have to ask why a voting public that threw Palin, Trump, Cain, Bachman, and Gingrich into the lead would reflexively abjure Santorum.
I’m just not seeing a bright line.
As painful as it is for me to write this, all of the candidates you mention have strengths that Santorum lacks.
Palin and Bachmann have a certain level of charisma and, for many people, sex appeal, and as women they have a certain novelty that helps them gain support.
Many people admire Donald Trump and/or his wealth.
Herman Cain is very personable if you aren’t having cocktails with him at a conference center, or driving in the passenger seat of his car.
Gingrich can talk some serious shit and he was once the leader of his party.
Unmentioned, Ron Paul has an army of loyal followers and Jon Huntsman actually has the qualifications to be president.
Rick Santorum has none of these thing. He has the most famous name in Google Search.
I gotcha.
You need some flash to be a flash in the pan.
Santorum just doesn’t have any flash. He’s Special Agent Van Alden, except he’d never get into a fist fight.
I wouldn’t dare venture a prediction at this point, but just looking at the calendar, I won’t be surprised if there’s one (and an outside chance of two) flavor-of-the-month candidates. Maybe Santorum breaks through. Maybe someone else gets a second look.
Give the money he’s raised, and given his career, I’d say Perry—if he gets through the next few debates in okay shape—stands the best chance of being Not-Mitt-Romney.
Then again, maybe this is one of those years in which past races are of no predictive value.
“Maybe Santorum breaks through.”
Yes, perhaps the dam is breached, and a torrent of Santorum floods out to cover the land.
Eeech, I sure hope not.
Yes, Santorum might get a short lived “spike” in the Polls, but you’ll have to watch closely because it will all be over in the time between entering “Santorum” in the google search box and when the results appears.
I knew Perry would ruin Bachmann’s chances to get the nomination — even though I didn’t think Perry would win it — but man, I really didn’t expect her polling to sink that badly. In fact, like Steggles, I halfway expected her polling to make a comeback if Perry were to falter (which was inevitable, just didn’t think it’d be that quick).
Anyway, I think you’re right about all of this. Santorum isn’t going to go anywhere. Paul has a ceiling of support, and he also has a floor. He’s stuck.
I also thought Huntsman might have some opening if he organized properly in NH, but with Romney having another crack at Iowa that’s probably unlikely. It’s a good thing he’s so rich, otherwise I suspect he’d have dropped out already.
I think Huntsman’s plan is to be a credible candidate in 2016. The only thing disappointing about his 2012 audition (from his point of view) is how little publicity he’s gotten.
A Romney-Huntsman ticket? Would Romney want a yahoo running with him? No reason for Huntsman not to take it. VP candidates are rarely blamed for losses and it gives him stature for 2016. Romney-Gingrich? What does Gingrich give Romney? Can he deliver the South for Romney? Enough to cover losses in the North? Romney-Perry is unbelievable. And unlike McCain, I don’t think Romney would just throw a dart at random. Usually VP candidates have to bring something. Convention delegates. Favorite son status in a region or state where the candidate is weak (an argument for Gingrich). The blessing of a powerful bloc (Huntsman and Wall Street, Ron Paul and Libertarians. Cain and Tea Party.
I see no scenario in which Romney could survive the convention without promising the world to some sort of teabegger nut. Huntsman offers nothing.
Other t5han being more electable to the general electorate.
2 Mormons from Utah would probably not be widely considered a very balanced ticket.
I’ll agree but for differing reasons. It IS a shame how little publicity he’s gotten, because he’s just as conservative as any person on that stage; if he gets any at all he’s talked about as a moderate. The only difference is that I don’t think the country would die if he was president, and he’d be competent. That makes him dangerous to independents. “Well the Democrats aren’t working, even though I like their policies better. But this guy isn’t bad and won’t destroy the country, so let’s give him a shot.”
Thank you, it very much needed to be said. Huntsman’s major strength — like George P. Papoon, presidential candidate for the Natural Surrealist Party many years ago — is that “He’s not insane.” Which actually makes him more dangerous.
Pretty much how Reagan got elected.
Alternate title: sh*t floats.
Beat me to it.
there is no surprise to pull with NEWT.
all his assclowness is out there for all to see
simply put, the GOP HATES WILLARD
The scum always rises.
There is no Newt Gingrich.
There is only Benny Hill pretending to be an American politician.
Go look at the pictures on Google.