What will it mean if Gingrich and Paul come in first and second place in the Iowa Caucuses? Will one or both of them carry that momentum into New Hampshire? If Romney loses the first two contests, can he still make a comeback? And, at what point would the Republicans get seriously worried about Ron Paul and start bringing out the heavy artillery against him?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
what ‘heavy artillery’ against Paul?
folks don’t care that he gets support from White Supremacists….
it’s not like it’s hidden.
so, what heavy artillery could they bring against Paul?
People who don’t spend way too much time on political web sites don’t know about it.
But if he wins or comes in second in Iowa, they sure will.
I’m not sure about Paul. I think he’s indestructible in his own way. In the sense that his little army would keep going for as long as he wanted them to, all the way to the general election if necessary. I doubt he’ll take his campaign that far. But perhaps only if he’s guaranteed some sort of real influence in the prospective GOP administration – a Cabinet position? Nomination to the Fed? If the eventual nominee (who will not be Paul, btw) gives him the cold shoulder, maybe he would go all in on a 3rd party bid. What does he have to lose? He’s 76 years old. And his son doesn’t seem to care a whit about pssing off the party establishment, so I doubt Dr. Paul would either.
As for Romney, if he loses the first two contests it’s hard to see his path forward. His main thing is electability, right? The fact that he has an actual chance to beat Obama, unlike the other crazies, is supposed to overshadow his myriad flaws. But that narrative is shattered, like Hillary’s was, if he can’t win the big primaries. If he lost the first two (which would mean he’d probably lose the first 4, at least), then I imagine he’d still stay in the race until the bitter end (June), desperately hoping for some kind of flameouts by the frontrunnners. He has the money, certainly. But unless he dominates more or less from the start the race will quickly spin out of control for him.
The smart money is still on Romney, but I have substantially more hope for Newt than I did a couple weeks ago.
I think Newt is going to be the Republican winner. I know folks can’t conceive this but he is really the only one acceptable to the base, which is now running the show in the GOP, and shown some ability on TV. he has the personality to get over any filp flops. Romney doesn’t. After newt’s “default threat” of the 90’s when Wall Street came to the Speaker’s Office and had a private word, they know they can work with him; even with the occasional looney behavior. He is a red meat spcialist and can feed the fear and greed of a majority of the GOP.
My fear is that he will be allowed to weasle out during the General. Fox will be for him, so there is 20% right there. The remainder would have to come from the establishment Village. They loved him in the 90’s until Delay did a Brutus on him and allowed all the slease to come out. Don’t forget they forgave Nixon and allowed that comeback. “Newt’s Return and he’s better than ever. He’s learned his lessons and no longer that guy.” hell, I can write the lede myself.
R
With six weeks to go I’m thinking that’s about enough time to crack Newt’s crust and the marshmellow center will start to pour out.
So it seems an enjoyable romp through the maze of the Right’s nuttiness to think of Newt fracturing & Ron Paul up in an ascending tie with Huntsman in Iowa. Mitt may well be turning into fairy dust at this point.
I will say that I had figured that Willard had it locked until I saw that Fox News interview from this past week.
Paul has a floor and a ceiling. I doubt they’ll ever get worried about him unless he prevents a majority of delegates going to one candidate…something I do not see as possible.
Romney has a ceiling, this is true, but with a weak field he can still squeak through to get that majority. Paul can’t do this, and he can’t score enough support to prevent someone else (Gingrich) from the same thing.
Paul might have a surprise win in Iowa as it’s a caucus, but it’s unlikely to translate to anything other than Romney being edged out. That’s about all it means. Trouble for Romney…
Gandhi said it.
Yup.
Well, there is no political strategy higher than truth, either. The problem with that statement is that “telling the truth” is so rarely used as a political option.
Paul?
He is nothing if not truthful. Perhaps truthful to a fault, in a normal political sense.
But…these are not “normal” times. These are crisis times, not just for the U.S. but also for much of the rest of the world. The so-called “common wisdom” says that he does not have a shot. But of course the question must be asked…how is that “common wisdom” formed today in the U.S. and what are the true purposes of those who do form it?
Answers?
It is formed by the PermaGov-owned and controlled mass media and its main purpose is to preserve as much of the PermaGov status quo as it is possible to preserve.
Ron Paul is “unelectable?” I believe much the same was said of another almost compulsive truth-teller in a so-called democracy, Winston Churchill. Until a crisis went toxic and Great Britain fell all over itself to get him in office and save the country by means that had up until that point been considered radically wrong by the common wisdom-producers of the time.
In a perfect Ron Paul storm some part of our own set of crises would go toxic. (If they haven’t actually done so already, of course.) Take your pick from the Blood For Oil/anti-Islamist Wars right on through the economic troubles of Europe and the U.S., the spread of “Egyptian Spring”-type movements here and possibly on into global warming-produced severe weather disruptions or other force of nature problems like earthquakes or disease outbreaks. Gingrich goes down in a hail of past errors, Romney is relegated to the Madame Tussaud’s Wax Museum from which he came and Obama’s two-faced set of stances…one for the people and the other for the PermaGov…becomes increasingly obvious to even the most sleeple of people.
Whadda we get?
Preznit Ron Paul is what we get.
Could happen.
Eventually the media’s consensus-producing power is going to wane.
Now is that time?
Maybe.
We shall soon see.
A few weeks ago I would have laid 10-1 odds against Paul making it all the way.
Today?
Make it 5-1.
Watch.
AG
Apologies for going slightly off topic here, but is that the same Winston Churchill who was first elected to Parliament in 1900, served there with only brief interruption for the next 55 years, and held Cabinet positions in both Conservative and Liberal governments at various times over the three decades before the outbreak of WW II? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill
Paul is a modern day Lyndon Larouche.
Someone (probably in Utah) needs to start reaching out to the Mormons to convert to the Democratic party. It isn’t really that big of a reach philosophically for them. Focus on social justice, freedom of religion and how southern evangelicals will never allow them to have their hands on power if they have anything to do with it.
Massachusetts, a fairly progressive state that is hardly dominated by LDS had no problem electing a Mormon governor. Do you think there is a chance in hell a Mormon could win statewide office in Mississippi?
Wake up LDS members! You are seeking harbor where you are not truly welcome.
Uh…no. Mormons hate gays, hate abortion, love guns, and love their survivalist/Bircher government-is-out-to-get-you paranoia. The heavily Mormon states out west went harder for McCain/Palin than even Alaska and the deep south. They will vote Dem in meaningful numbers when the Telestial Kingdom freezes over.
Gingrich has the all important nostalgia factor for GOPers that all the other candidates lack. More than anything, they want to turn back the clock.
What about the third leg of the GOP Triple Crown, South Carolina? ‘Course, Slick Willard won’t win that one either.
Or is Florida the real last chance? Oh yeah, Newt’s leading the polls there.
who cares, pass the popcorn!
Well, so far Romney’s still holding a big lead in NH, although there’s still plenty of time for that to slip. This WaPo story says he’s gearing up for a long fight: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mitt-romney-looks-to-outlast-and-outwork-gingrich-to-gop-nomi
nation/2011/12/01/gIQApviaMO_story.html?hpid=z1
Not to mention Gingrich’s storied lack of organization. Even if the campaign cash comes flying in, he’s got a lot of building to do in a very short space of time.