Assuming that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, and assuming that he won’t select Marco Rubio as his running mate, who do you think he will select, and why?
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
He’ll need help with women but after the Blunt Amendment vote, Ayotte, Collins, Hutchinson, and Murkowski won’t work.
They’ve got nobody that can shore them up with indies, women, or Hispanics.
He’ll probably have to throw a bone to their fundie base to “unite” the party and try to maximize the base’s turn out. But that kind of move will drive even more women and indies away.
They are f#@ked!
I think the GOP’s little experiment with people who are not white men is over. It’ll be a teabegger man.
Susana Martinez Gov of New Mexico.
Pretty, latina, socially conservative, fiscally righteous … and boring as dishwater.
I would think it would have to be someone to placate the base, but not in a Palinesque way. It would have to be someone who isn’t in the House (no Paul Ryan) and who wouldn’t be too terribly tarnished by a 35-15 state beatdown, either because they’re never running for anything else or because they’re too well-respected by the Right. Haley Barbour comes to mind, but I don’t know if the pardons would be terminal to his nomination. Huckabee would do too, but he’s been off the reservation on a couple issues (not to mention the pardoned felon that went on the killing spree in Washington) so he’s probably out.
What about DeMint?
Virginia governor McDonnell. Solid with the base but perceived to be a mainstream up and comer.
Governor Transvaginal Probe McDonnell?
LOL
Assuming he signs it, now he’s just Ultrasound Governor. No more transvaginal part.
But yes, I agree: Governor McDonnell.
Depending on how radioactive he is by then, it may have to be Santorum. God, what a dream ticket that would be for us.
Whoever he picks will only be someone who never steals his spotlight. They will have to be someone duller than dishwater in the media. This is personal with Willard if you look back at his career both in politics and in business. He must be the Superstar, the only one who gets his name in the paper. So no rock-star Vice President, even if it means he loses because of it.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he doesn’t include the name of his running-mate on campaign materials (bumper stickers, campaign signs, buttons, etc.) And he’ll probably assign his running-mate to a small plane like a Gulfstream or something so there’s no room for traveling press to ride along and get stories not about Mitt. Just room for the campaign staff, who will instruct that running-mate to keep a low profile.
That McDonnell guy (Governor Trans-vaginal) from Virginia would work real well. He’s dull enough. Plus, it might help Willard to have a “Real Christian” to send around to reassure that part of the base.
Rachel Maddow made a fairly persuasive case last week that McDonnell is probably off Romney’s short list, precisely because he is “Gov. Transvaginal”, and his presence on the ticket would cost Romney too many votes.
I think McDonnell could be off the list because he’s Governor Transavaginal to the center and he isn’t Governor Transvaginal top the religious rightists who want women seeking abortions to be humiliated as much as humanly possible. (Or, on the other hand, he may decide that that puts McDonnell in a right-but-not-too-right sweet spot.)
But I’m guessing Christie. RandyH thinks Romney wants someone dull. I feel exactly the opposite. That’s what guys like Romney do — they hire olive-skinned ethnics to do the stuff that requires breaking a sweat. They think, “I’m not macho, but I hire people who are.”
The Lorax?
It will be something like that
I can tell you who he might select, though I’m damned if I know who.
Most likely a southerner, probably protestant, ideally a Southern Baptist. Barbour would be OK, but I think his good ol’ boy Boss Hogg schtick contrasts too sharply with Romney’s extraterrestrial demeanor.
Sam Brownback may be a real possibility. He shores up most of Mitt’s weaknesses with the base, he has an established record, and he knows how presidential campaigns operate, or at least until they run out of money. Potential weaknesses are his Catholicism (his third religion), and opposition to the death penalty.
Although Mitt’s probably feeble enough to pick Mitch Daniels, I think his handlers have more sense than that. Paul Ryan has his own ambitions and isn’t going to waste them by hitching his wagon to Romney’s star–he certainly isn’t going to jeopardize his House seat in this election cycle.
GOP women? Brewer is the only one who comes to mind (who isn’t too old), and even though she’d please the anti-Latino crowd, she wouldn’t do much else for the ticket except call Romney’s judgement into question. If Nikki Haley hadn’t had her little sex scandal thingy, she might have fit the ticket; then again maybe it’s been out long enough that no one cares anymore.
Although I think Jindal’s a non-starter, it could happen. He’s the only other minority with any credentials available other than Rubio, and Rubio hasn’t had time to establish any kind of record.
My instinct is that Mitt will pick someone relatively unknown to the public or undiscussed, like McCain did with Palin in ‘008.
Among non-southern governors, Dave Heineman of Nebraska looks like a possible prospect, and Butch Otter of Idaho has the kind of record that looks good on a presidential ticket. I think though that Otter’s name rules him out by itself: can you imagine a Romney/Otter ticket? Or Mitt & Butch?
There may be one or two possibilities in the House among those members losing their districts to reapportionment–I’d like to see the list of those candidates. It’s probably a short one. Nobody with a decent prospect of reelection is likely to join the ticket, and anybody in danger of losing reelection would be useless.
If he picks a Senator, it would have to be one from a very safe state that could relied on to replace him with another Republican, given how close the balance is. On that list you might have Richard Shelby or Jeff Sessions of AL, Jerry Moran of KS (although his name is probably a deal-breaker too, as it resembles both “moron” and “mormon), Roger Wicker of MS, John Cornyn, and either of Tennessee’s senators. While Oklahoma can be counted on to replace either with another Republican, I don’t think Inhofe would bring anything to the ticket, and Coburn’s well-known record of unprecedented obstructionism in the Senate won’t play well to independents and swing voters in the GE.
Jim DeMint would be a strong pick, but if the Senate were to flip, he’d have a lot of power just staying where he is. Even so, if asked to be Romney’s veep, he probably wouldn’t hesitate.
Bob McDonnell would be perfect had it not been for the recent goings-on in the VA legislature, and there may yet turn out to be no real harm done to his image among women voters. Choosing him presents Romney with some risk, though, and Mittens doesn’t like to take big chances.
So Among known quantities, in no particular order, DeMint, McDonnell, Brownback. Somewhat distantly behind them, Jindal and Daniels.
Again, I’d place a strong likelihood on Romney picking one of the lesser-known governors or Senators, in which case it’s anybody’s ball game.
Yeah, you just kind of convinced me it will be Lamar Alexander. He’s perfect, and he doesn’t want to be in the Senate anymore anyway.
Mitt & Butch sounds good, or an Otter strapped to the roof of the car
I have a hunch that Romney has already picked Olympia Snowe to be his running mate.
Snowe’s behavior doesn’t make a lot of sense otherwise. Last week wasn’t the time to announce that you are not running for re-election. That time was six months ago, maybe three months ago at the latest. You don’t convince the press, the voters, and your staff that you are running for re-election, and then withdraw two weeks before the filing deadline for the race. Something is up.
So Snowe withdraws from the race, because she says she is fed up with partison rancor. Fine. But she didn’t notice six months ago that there was partisan rancor?
None of this makes any sense, until you make a conjecture that Mitt has tapped Snowe for the VP slot. Now, her withdrawal speech becomes the roll-out of Romney’s campaign theme, and an excellent roll-out at that, because nobody realizes that Romney is orchestrating the whole thing.
Articles appear lamenting that Washington has become a place where people like Olympia Snowe are no longer welcome. And so a moderate achieves martyrdom. But this is huge. With 85% of the people disapproving of Congress, running against the atmosphere in Washington can pay huge dividends. And Romney knows something about huge dividends.
So it will be Snowe in Tampa. And Romney will be running against Washington, and specifically against Washington’s hyper-partisan culture. What better ticket could you have to make that message than the Republican governor of the most Democratic state in the country and the senator most beloved by moderates who was forced out of office by excessive partisanship?
Is Romney Snowe not too New England a ticket? Too moderate to get the base out and too white to get anyone else out? Women and independents maybe if that is the real battleground and he can take the base for granted.
I still think Obama needs to switch Biden to Sec. of State and get a VP to shore up his weaknesses… But he can wait until the shape of the GOP ticket is clear and he knows where the battleground will be.
I agree with Booman below: the Republican base is not likely to accept the only Senator to break party ranks on the Blunt amendment as their VP nominee.
As for Obama, what weaknesses do you have in mind? And who would shore them up better than Biden? (Who presumably helps with white working-class voters in the industrial Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states.)
Also, the Republican convention is Aug. 27-30. The Democratic convention is Sept. 3-6. That means Obama would likely be looking at a scenario in which he has less than a week to vet and win approval for a new VP, and then has less than nine weeks to campaign on the new ticket.
Hillary? Although I will personally be very angry if that were to occur. It’s not. The guy is loyal.
Why do ppl think Obama will replace Biden?
They don’t believe Hillary Clinton will cap her political career with Secretary of State.
I see. guess I think Biden should stay. doesn’t Hillary have other options? SCOTUS, for example
the Tampa Convention Center would become an orgy of blood.
I don’t know that Snowe helps him – they pretty much occupy the same space. She makes a whole lot of sense as Santorum’s #2, but that couple may be too odd to maintain.
It seems like this question gets posed every week. I still think there are whole blocks that should be eliminated. No Governors because the “executive experience” thing is already covered. No “grand plan” fiscal conservatives (Ryan, Henserling) because the money plan is covered.
If “the establishment” Republicans are back in control with Romney on the ticket, and given that they probably think they will lose the election, they’ll want to diminish the power of the tea party and so won’t make the mistake of a Sarah Palin-type social conservative running mate, who will thereby get extra attention in the 2016 open election. They will want to project a solid establishment person as “next in line.”
They do have to balance the religion question and conservative cred doubts among the base. And I think they need to add some foreign policy experience.
So I will reiterate that I think Corker is the choice, though Coburn could be OK too, respected as a straight shooting conservative and now an early establishment endorser.
I agree that Corker is a distinct possibility here, but I don’t follow your reasoning that governors are out. If the establishment GOP is truly setting up its heir apparent, then that person arguably needs her/his own creds as an executive.
Add to that the fact that some of the Republican governors in a good position to run also have extensive experience in the House and/or Senate. Brownback, and Otter fit that descrition.
And then finally, come ‘016, are Christie, Huckabee, Barbour, Jeb and possibly Jindal all going to step aside for a hand-picked non governor groomed for the job in a failed bid for veep in ‘012? I don’t see the argument.
However, there’s a case to be made, given Romney’s limited experience in elected office, that he’d be unwilling to select a running mate with a record that would so far outshine his own. On that model, he might even go with someone perceived as being outside the system, a general perhaps, or even someone like Carly Fiorina or Meg Whitman (although neither of them help him out in the South at all).
Either way, I don’t think another governor on the ticket would be any more of a dealbreaker than a Congressional higher-up.
Romney needs a Southerner who can motivate Southern Baptists to vote for a Mormon but who won’t scare away the independents. Having a Washington insider (as if Mitt isn’t) might be an asset as well. And someone who can both attack the President and stand up in debates with VP Biden.
My guess is that Lamar Alexander will be Mitt Romney’s choice.
And it doesn’t hurt to have someone who has run for President in a kinder age on the ticket, especially if they will be too old to run at the end of your two terms. It keeps the Congressional GOP candidates interested in your winning.
If that’s the choice, it’s going to be one whale of fight in the fall. If Obama’s team goes on summer vacation like Kerry’s did, the President is toast. The Obama campaign’s decision that Congressional campaigns are on their own is not a hopeful sign for party building.
Note that this analysis is if 2012 were a usual Presidential campaign year. With the Israeli land grab going on, the Syrian uprising, and the manufactured crisis about Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it’s not like to be usual. And then add in protests at the Tampa and Charlotte conventions (whether Occupy participates or not), the effects of the Occupy movement around the globe and the catastrophe that European austerity is going to have on Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland. It will be a year of major events.
I really don’t think he’s going to go on summer vacation. Obama’s team has some talent. They have won elections in the past.
I agree there’s a good chance it’s going to be a tough reelection campaign—and that’s before we get into what will happen if several Republican billionaires decide to get involved in a big way.
FWIW, Obama’s campaign had volunteers making GOTV calls for today’s Massachusetts primary. Totally unnecessary—unless you’re serious about building a massive field operation for the fall.
Somebody who won’t outshine him – Tim Pawlenty.
Huckabee: Southern, goes to the right church, is familiar to Fox viewers.
A Southern Evangelical or a woman.
Nikki Haley?
Kay Bailey Hutchinson?
I don’t think Romney will want to gamble on a Palin Wild Card. He’ll want someone safe that shores up support among women and evangelicals. I don’t think it would work necessarily, but a general wouldn’t be a bad pick either, since Romney’s primary foreign policy experience in the Olympics.