While a stickler might insist that our illegal immigration problem won’t be solved until every single illegal entry is prevented, a more realistic metric is that it will be solved when an equal or greater number of undocumented workers are leaving as are arriving. In that case, the problem is solved, at least for now.
According to a report released by the Pew Hispanic Center, the massive wave of Mexicans entering this country illegally is subsiding and a rising counter current of Mexicans returning to their homeland has brought net migration to a statistical equilibrium.
This trend began about five years ago, according to the report, and the number of undocumented Mexican nationals in the U.S. has fallen from 7 million to 6.1 million. At the same time, the number returning – or, as Mitt Romney would put it, “self-deporting” – has jumped significantly.
People will disagree about the merits of this development. The Obama administration deported a record 400,000 people last year alone. That is an enormous number; it’s an average of 1,096 people per day, including weekends and holidays. And people will disagree about the causes and who deserves credit. Is it tougher enforcement, a lower Mexican birthrate, an improving Mexican economy relative to a slumping American one? We can bicker about the details, but one thing is clear. If we are no longer experiencing a net gain in undocumented workers, the problem is not getting worse. Despite getting no help from the Republicans on a comprehensive immigration reform plan, illegal immigration from Mexico is now at a stand still.
When John McCain and Teddy Kennedy’s immigration reform plan fell apart under President Bush, McCain came out and said that we couldn’t do immigration reform until we got the border under control. Well, it’s now under control. And we still need reform for two reasons. First, the economic and demographic conditions that led to this equilibrium on the border can and will change. Second, we still have over six million undocumented people in this country, and we can’t and shouldn’t deport them all.
In the meantime, Obama can take credit for overseeing a successful program to staunch the flow of undocumented workers. How much credit he deserves is debatable, but he deserves some. And we can also look closely at the cost of his program. How many families are being torn apart?
The main thing, though, is that there is no longer any excuse for putting off a comprehensive immigration reform bill. The border is secure enough that the problem has been stabilized. And that’s all anyone can realistically expect.
Question: do you want Obama to take credit for something that isn’t going to help him with a growing part of his base (Latinos)? I don’t want him bragging about how he’s deported a record number of people; he’s broken up families for no reason. This isn’t a victory, it’s a failure.
The level of deportations is one piece of a much bigger picture. Personally, I think that among Latinos who can vote, there is no desire to have lax immigration policies or an open border. They are more concerned about how they are treated and (potentially) how undocumented people in their families are treated. Aggressive deportations are a concern, but border enforcement or net immigration equilibrium really are not.
And, getting the border situation under control is a prerequisite for getting a more humane immigration and deportation policy. So, this is progress.
As with everything, there are pluses and minuses. The Latino community isn’t thrilled with Obama’s record, but they are really unhappy with Romney’s positions and the general attitude of the Republican Party.
If I were Obama, I wouldn’t brag about deporting people. I’d brag about stabilizing the border and use it as a rationale for getting back to work on a comprehensive solution.
Yeah, but it’s not going to happen, and you and I both know it. Unless there’s a way for him to act unilaterally through USCIS, it’s a dead issue. Yes I want him to talk it up, but where are the votes? Not even Bush could convince his stupid party to vote for it. And Bush’s bill was a GOOD bill.
Graham (R-SC)
Hagel (R-NE)
Lugar (R-IN)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCain (R-AZ)
Specter (R-PA)
Voinovich (R-OH)
^^That’s who voted for cloture…FOR BUSH. Assuming you got Graham, Lugar, McCain back, that still leaves us short.
Nothing is happening in this Congress. We wouldn’t want it to, since that would mean signing a bill that Boehner’s House helped to craft.
We’ll have to see what happens in this election. If Obama wins the Latino vote by as much as he is leading by right now, the GOP is going to have no choice but to do some soul-searching.
Obama is polling even in Arizona right now. What if that state falls into his column?
This is a problem that will soon grow so acute for the GOP that they won’t be able to compete at all on the national level.
There is no real evidence that border control as you’re speaking of it has occurred. Just that net immigration has stabilized. The evidence we have regarding the Obama administration’s efforts is that deportations have skyrocketed and the economy still sucks, and this means breaking up families and pissing off Latino voters and employers and friends of immigrants. Reporting from the trenches, Democratic organizing among Latino voters has been met with very weak reception so far this year because although they don’t support Republicans, Obama just doesn’t look like an ally to them.
Really, though. How many people, be they politician or citizen, really, truly care about the nuts and bolts effects of illegal immigration, except as an issue to leverage other concerns? It seems that it is simply a tool that is used for furthering either bigotry, gun fanaticism, paranoid conspiracies, cheap labor for business or any other assorted side issue that can be laid at the feet of a menacing, brown skinned wave.
If the issue was truly settled through the implementation of a fair and just policy, then a significant political tool is lost for those who use it as a proxy for the furtherance of so many of the other pet projects of the far right.
Hispanic voters do, and they’re an increasingly large voting bloc that can be organized, and is organizing itself, largely around the issue of immigration and open borders.
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I don’t think much of the headline, nor do the Hispanics who voted for Obama in 2008 … ask Man Eegee.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."And then there is this:
ask Man Eegee.
Who is “Man Eegee,” and why are you linking to a four-month-old poll?
Obama’s job approval increased by fourteen percentage points from 52% in November to 66% in April
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/04/24/4438033/obama-bouncing-back-widens-lead.html#storylink=cpy
That is almost exactly the % of the Latino vote that Obama won in 2008.
The Republicans never like “comprehensive”. Maybe it’s too many ideas to hold in their heads at once, but it may be time for a series of immigration reform bills.