Joshua Green takes a crack at imagining what Obama’s presidency would look like right now if there had been no filibuster in the U.S. Senate. It’s actually a very difficult thing to do. Let me explain why.
The most basic and obvious way to tackle this question is to look at the list of bills passed by the House of Representatives that did not pass in the Senate. Then you have to determine if those were bills the president would have signed. And did those bills have the support of at least 50 senators? Once you’ve identified all the bills that meet those criteria, you can present that as a package of stuff that would have become law if not for the filibuster. And, while that would be fairly accurate, it doesn’t really even begin to scratch the surface of how things would be different.
For example, I didn’t even mention judicial or political nominees. The filibuster has been used to slow down and block the confirmation of countless prospective judges and has left the executive branch far less than fully-staffed.
I think people can fairly easily understand that the filibuster is used to block contentious laws and prevent people with far-left views from finding employment in the public square. But what most people don’t understand is that the mere existence of the filibuster has a tremendous impact.
When the Democrats had control of Congress in 2009-2010, they still needed some Republican votes to overcome the filibuster. (The only exception was for a three month period between September 2009 and January 2010, when they did actually have the sixty votes they needed to pass ObamaCare through the Senate). Because the Democrats knew they had to attract some Republican support in the Senate, they passed bills in the House that were designed to win Republican support instead of what they would have done on their own in a parliamentary system. One example was the Cap & Trade bill that was based on Republican ideas and resembled McCain and Palin’s plan from their campaign.
As for healthcare, the role of the filibuster is more pernicious. Health care policy was discussed and built up in Washington think tanks during the 14 years between the failure of Clinton’s plan and the beginning of the 2008 presidential campaign. Obama, Edwards, and Clinton’s health care plans were all very similar because they all came out of the Washington consensus that had built up about what could conceivably pass into law rather than what would be the best way of creating a universal system. But the calculus of what could pass was done with the full knowledge that nothing would pass with less than 60 votes. In other words, just by existing, the filibuster took a single-payer system out of the conversation and out of the consciousness of the nations’s best health care thinkers. Anyone who continued to talk about single-payer, like Dennis Kuninich for example, were considered fundamentally unserious. And they were unserious. If they wanted single-payer, they needed to kill the filibuster first.
The truth is, if Washington hadn’t had to deal with the filibuster, the whole health care debate would have been different. Obama and Clinton and Edwards would have been calling for single-payer or would have lost to a candidate who was talking about it. The president would have been able to craft a plausible platform with progressive solutions and still be taken seriously. And he could have passed everything on his agenda in the first two years in office.
So, not only would the president have signed everything Nancy Pelosi produced in 2009-2010, but what Pelosi produced wouldn’t have had to be watered down to appeal to a few straying Republicans.
Finally, we have to talk about delay. The filibuster and other other procedural tactics have been used by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to simply chew up legislative days. They have filibustered bills they support just to make them take three days to pass instead of five minutes. By slowing down the process, the Republicans reduce what actually gets done.
In any case, it’s very hard to say what Obama’s presidency would be like if he hadn’t had to deal with the filibuster, but there are two things you can be certain about. First, he would have been able to be much more aggressive about fixing the economy and we’d have a clear record to evaluate. We wouldn’t be asking if the Republicans are trying to ruin the economy to hurt the president, because the Republicans wouldn’t have had the power to do things like that (at least, not in 2009-2010).
It’s also clear that progressives would be a lot happier with Obama in a world without the filibuster, but they should be careful what they wish for. Without the filibuster, a Republican congress would actually be able to do all kinds of things we don’t want like privatize Medicare and Social Security and outlaw abortion.
The filibuster works as ballast for the ship of state. It keeps our government very stable and predictable, regardless of which party is in charge. This has many benefits that people don’t consider because you don’t value what is not there. But, the problem now is that the ship needs to change course and the filibuster is preventing that from happening.
“The truth is, if Washington hadn’t had to deal with the filibuster, the whole health care debate would have been different.”
…or Obama would have had to develop a different excuse for moving in the direction he always intended to go.
8% unemployment was clearly his master plan all along. What genius and subtle cunning! He’s played us all for fools.
The problem with your comment, beside it being uncharitable, is that that it is completely dismissive of every point I made in the piece.
You start off with the premise that the health care bill that was actually produced is exactly the kind of bill the president would have sought if he needed only 50 votes to pass it. And we have to take that several steps further. You assume that if all the Democrats had had to do to get a universal system is win both houses of Congress, that they would have spent 14 years trying to come up with clever ways to get to universal coverage without eliminating the private insurance sector. You assume that the health care plans on the think tank shelves would have been exactly the same, and that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton would have all picked the same plans, and that Obama would have won the nomination with a right-wing plan, and that the whole party would have been similarly content to settle for a multi-payer for-profit system.
The truth is that all of those things would have been different without the filibuster.
So, when you talk about Obama getting the result he wanted in the first place, you are ignoring that even what he wanted would have been different. What the base and the rank-and-file would have found acceptable would have been different.
If you’re referring solely to the public option aspect, I believe it ws determined very early on that it couldn’t pass out of Max Baucus’s Finance Committee because of Democratic opposition and couldn’t pass the filibuster for the same reason. In truth, I think it was determined that it couldn’t even pass the 50 vote threshold and be done in reconciliation. While only five or six Dems were on the record opposing the public option, I think at least that many quietly opposed it.
And that gets to the influence of money as well as the distorted debate about health care caused by fourteen years of thinking about it a filibuster context.
Is there a connection between the health care debate and an 8% unemployment rate? Am I missing something here?
You’d think such a duplicitous anti-socialist would be getting more help from the right on the rest of his (their?) agenda after he did them the solid of sabotaging the progressive freight train on health care reform. Because that’s what happened, right? Single payer was about to be enacted, but the White House got in the way?
Instead, all he got for his trouble was teabaggers and a government that can barely keep its doors open. Dirty double crossers!
Is there a connection between the health care debate and an 8% unemployment rate? Am I missing something here?
Yes. Since the outcome of the health care debate and the inadequacy of the stimulus are both consequences of the President having to settle because of the filibuster in the Senate, pointing out the foolishness of the notion that the President wanted 8% unemployment serves to also point out the foolishness of your notion about the ACA.
Well, Bazooka Joe… You’re obviously way ahead of me on the coffee intake front today. And you’re light years ahead of me on making leaps of logic. So… I’m just going to talk quietly…and move backwards slowly…and leave the room. This thread is all yours now.
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But what about DINOs such as Kent Conrad, Max Baucus, Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson to name four that come to mind readily. Even without a filibuster, much of what Pelosi got out of the house wouldn’t get fifty Democratic votes.
Yup, that’s about what I was thinking too. In a world without the filibuster, you’d still get a choke point at the 51st vote, or 50th if you throw Biden’s tiebreaker in there. And there’s power in being that decisive vote. (There are also ways to game-theory a bunch of the conserva-Dems against each other.). But I think they’d still have been working to nudge everything rightwards and not be team players, because that’s what they do, and there are a lot of them.
The 51st most liberal Senate Democrat in 2009 was much more liberal than those four.
I’m not sure about that. Of the 60 Ds at the time of HCR, the caucus included Baucus, Bayh, Begich, Bennet, Carper, Conrad, Dorgan, Tim Johnson, Landrieu, Lieberman, Lincoln, the two Nelsons, Pryor, Warner, and Webb. Then there are waverers like McCaskill and Feinstein and Hagan and Casey. Getting from roughly 40, give or take, to 50 or 51 entails securing support from a significant number of these not-very-liberal Senators. My impression at the time was that some of the more vocal Dem critics of the bill were acting at the behest of a larger group that was uncomfortable with the way it was set up, but laying low.
Here are National Journal’s 2009 Senate rankings:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2009voteratings
Take a look at the Liberal rankings on Econ, Social, Foreign.
#51 is Dorgan: 54, 49, 49. #60 is Bayh: 43, 40, 37.
That’s a meaningful difference.
54, 49, 49
A true fence sitter