Turnout looks high in both the Republican burbs and the Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison. Some places may see turnout higher than in 2008. That’s kind of crazy for a Tuesday in June. It will be interesting if the polls were right because I don’t think they anticipated really high interest in the race. What I read suggested that Republicans were more motivated than Democrats, and that is probably true. But it’s a Democratic state, so we can afford a little differential there and still eke out a victory. In general, the higher the turnout, the more likely that Gov. Walker will be ousted, but it still matters where the turnout is high.
Expectations have been really low on the Democratic side, which would make a victory all that more satisfying. And, of course, there are many partial victories tonight. We can lose the recall of the governor but still take over the Senate. And we could win the Lieutenant Governor’s office and/or the Senate without recalling Walker. Or vice-versa. Still, the big prize is the governor’s mansion.
We need to keep pushing friends and colleagues in Wisconsin to go out and vote.
It would be interesting to see comparisons of turnout today versus 2010. I suspect that Republican turnout was high then as well, whereas we know Dem turnout was lower. The turnout in Madison is supposed to be between 80-88%, in Milwaukee well over 70%.
Plus, the thing that may ultimately decide this is new voters. Wisconsin has same day registration and Milwaukee is reporting running out of registration forms and having to send more out. My guess, and that is all it is, is that more Dems would be registering today than Republicans, which might make all the difference in a close election.
“Turnout today vs. 2010”.
Obviously dem turnout in 2010 wasn’t good enough. Walker won by 124,600+ votes.
If the turnout is like 2008, or higher, Barrett wins. it can’t be 60-65%. if it is, Walker will likely win.
.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."My Wisconsin connections have likely already been to the polls. I know they were pretty psyched about sending Walker packing.
My WI sister has been working her tail off on canvassing and phone banking (and she hates phone banking with a passion). My nephew worked extra shifts to make money for the Dems. They tell me on their turf (Dane County), the frenzy to dump Walker feels at least as strong as when the recall petitions and rallies started. They can’t believe the media coverage, national and local, that seems intended to dampen enthusiasm and promote apathy among the recallers. And that seems right, even among supposed liberal outfits like TPM and Huffington, to say nothing of NPR.
Here’s an example of the kind of spin I mentioned above. Reuters quoted two Walker supporters in a long article about the closeness of the election. Finally, in the last sentence, they found a Barrett supporter who had this to say: “”Truthfully, I don’t believe Barrett will win, but I do believe the state senate will flip,” said Barrett supporter Andrew Karls, 29, after voting in Milwaukee.”
It seems that in some places turnout might be higher than pre-election day registration, leading to figures like 119% turnout. Which will likely turn heads of those who don’t understand about same-day registration.
Rest assured – facts be damned – that the GOP will take a 119% turnout and use it to justify their disenfranchisement efforts.
Looks like CNN’s exit poll has Barrett and Walker tied at 50/50. It’ll be a long night.
I want to thank all those in Wisconsin who stood up to GOP tyranny..no matter how this goes.
Looks like MSNBC has called it for Walker.
I really didn’t want to hear that.
Nor did I.