The New York Times reports today that thanks to the increasing loss of sea ice, Big Oil Companies in the West are in a race with China to just “Drill, Baby, Drill” and “Mine, Baby, Mine” in the previously unexploited areas of the Arctic. Previously unexploited because the Arctic was covered by a near permanent layer of sea ice and land ice. That is no longer the case:
NUUK, Greenland — With Arctic ice melting at record pace, the world’s superpowers are increasingly jockeying for political influence and economic position in outposts like this one, previously regarded as barren wastelands. […]
While the United States, Russia and several nations of the European Union have Arctic territory, China has none, and as a result, has been deploying its wealth and diplomatic clout to secure toeholds in the region. […]
… Here, as well as in Alaska, Canada and Norway, oil and gas companies are still largely exploring, although experts estimate that more than 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves are in the Arctic. Warmer weather has already extended the work season by a month in many locations, making access easier.
At one point this summer, 97 percent of the surface of Greenland’s massive ice sheet was melting. At current rates, Arctic waters could be ice-free in summer by the end of the decade, scientists say.
“Things are happening much faster than what any scientific model predicted,” said Dr. Morten Rasch, who runs the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring program at Aarhus University in Denmark. […]
And Chinese companies, some with close government ties, are investing heavily across the Arctic. In Canada, Chinese firms have acquired interests in two oil companies that could afford them access to Arctic drilling.
Indeed, despite setbacks, Big Oil is increasingly committed to drilling in the Arctic Ocean as this article from yesterday demonstrates:
WASHINGTON _ Although Shell Oil Co. is scrapping its plans to drill into potential oil reservoirs underneath the Chukchi and Beaufort seas this summer because of damaged spill-containment equipment, president Marvin Odum said the firm will not abandon its $5 billion quest for crude in the remote region.
Instead of seeking to penetrate underground zones that could contain hydrocarbons, Shell Oil Co. will focus on completing initial so-called “top-hole drilling” in the Arctic, effectively getting a 1,000-foot jump-start on its Arctic wells so they can be finished next year.
Why is this possible? Because of the loss of sea and land ice in the Arctic is in a downward death spiral:
The European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 probe confirms what the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center has been saying for years: Arctic sea ice volume has been collapsing faster than sea ice area (or extent) because the ice has been getting thinner and thinner.
In fact, the latest satellite CryoSat-2 data shows the rate of loss of Arctic sea ice is “50% higher than most scenarios outlined by polar scientists and suggests that global warming, triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions, is beginning to have a major impact on the region,” as the UK Guardian reported in [January, 2012].
We could have an ice free Arctic Ocean in the summer by as early as 2016, but certainly long before previous climate models had predicted:
Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3 (Kwok et al. 2009), one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.
This pattern continues, as a record for loss of Arctic sea ice was set this year, beating the prior record set in 2007:
More than 600,000 square kilometres (sq km) more ice has melted in 2012 than was ever recorded by satellites before. {…]
“In the 1970s we had 8m sq km of sea ice. That has been halved. We need it in the summer. It has never decreased like this before”.
“We knew the ice was getting thinner but I did not expect we’d lose this much this year. We broke the record by a lot”, says the NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve.
“The acceleration of the loss of the extent of the ice is mostly because the ice has been so thin. This would explain why it has melted so much this year. By June the ice edge had pulled back to where it normally is in September,” she says.
“The 2007 record was set when you had weather conditions which were perfect for melting. This year we didn’t have those. It was mixed. So this suggests the ice has got to a point where it’s so thin it doesn’t matter what the weather is, it’s going to melt in the summer. This could become the new normal,” says Stroeve.
Meanwhile, in America, oil and gas companies continue to run ads and donating funds to politicians and front groups in states where hydrofracking is occurring or proposed, as well as promote information on their websites, such as Chevron does, that we can produce all the “clean energy” from natural gas we want and “create jobs in America” at the same time.
Big oil is also spending big bucks this year on political “issue” ads attacking President Obama and other Democrats and promoting more drilling for oil and gas:
The Times reports that the fossil fuel industry–oil and gas–and its allies have spent nearly four times as much money as its competitors, almost all attacking the president, who, despite misgivings by environmentalists over his ‘all-of-the-above’ energy policies, is insufficiently pro-oil in their view. The report states:
“With nearly two months before Election Day on Nov. 6, estimated spending on television ads promoting coal and more oil and gas drilling or criticizing clean energy has exceeded $153 million this year, according to an analysis by The New York Times of 138 ads on energy issues broadcast this year by the presidential campaigns, political parties, energy companies, trade associations and third-party spenders.
“That tally is nearly four times the $41 million spent by clean-energy advocates, the Obama campaign and Democratic groups to defend the president’s energy record or raise concerns about global warming and air pollution.”
The same oil companies that fund climate deniers at the Heartland Institute, who are planning a curriculum for our schools that will teach our kids climate change is at best, controversial and unproven:
Internal documents acquired by ThinkProgress Green reveal that the Heartland Institute, a right-wing think tank funded by the Koch brothers, Microsoft, and other top corporations, is planning to develop a “global warming curriculum” for elementary schoolchildren that presents climate science as “a major scientific controversy.” This effort, at a cost of $100,000 a year, will be developed by Dr. David E. Wojick, a coal-industry consultant.
How much more money will Big Oil spend to attack Democrats, attack clean alternative and renewable energy, fund climate deniers and seek to gain access to oil and gas in the Arctic? My guess: Whatever it takes. Oh, by the way, guess how heavily Big Oil is financing Romney’s campaign? Officially the tally is $2,206,735. That is the highest amount for any single candidate running for any office this year. Off the books in anonymous contributions to Conservative SuperPacs? Your guess is as good as mine.
The Arctic Council has divvied up the territorial claims so that resource exploitation will not create major conflicts. That makes business more “predictable”.
The first sailing vessel made it through this year, although it navigated through melting ice floes.
Can Carnival Cruises or Holland American be far behind?
Don’t think that Big Oil is betting only on Republicans. Better look at the contributions of down-ticket Democrats. And not just from oilpatch states.
Just like evolution! And maybe the theory that the stars are not lights in a crystal vault! After all only a pointed-headed Liberal would think that the Moon and stars wouldn’t fall down if there wasn’t a crystal vault built by the Intelligent Designer. And rockets can’t work in a vacuum because there is nothing to push against. Stupid crazy college professors! Just ask you local shaman. He’ll tell you how God built it. Except for those lady parts, the Devil built those, so our shamans have to control them before they destroy your soul.
“I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man.” – Thomas Jefferson (I hope he included God’s servants)
FTR, it’s unlikely it will be free of ice by 2016. That assumes the current rate would be constant. Considering it took until 2011 to tie the record low of 2007, and then 2012 to break those records, it seems unlikely that this will be the case.
Although I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s gone by 2022-2024. 4 years, 12 years…in this context it doesn’t much matter. We’re f’ing screwed.
You forget the ice volume is less as well. @012 should not have been the year when sea ice extent (i.e., the size of the area coverd by sea ice not it’s volume) was less than 2007 when all the stars aligned to produce that result, but it was because the volume of ice is so much less – i.e., the old long standing ice has diminished do much, so only new, less compressed ice accumulates in the winter. So we have more of a feed back loop because the water underneath the ice is warmer and new ice melts faster than the old ice does.
Doesn’t really matter if it’s 2016 or 2024. The point is that the positive feedback loop is in place and there’s no effort even to slow down the change much less reverse it.
Yeah, I said as much that it didn’t matter; we’re screwwed either way.
I made that comment because a climatologist friend of mine getting his PhD at Penn State pointed it out to me.
Suppose it’s good not to make unduly alarmist projections as that just rile up the knuckle-draggers and those making lots of money off drilling, mining, etc. Better to let everyone continue to believe that nothing is wrong and if it is, technology will fix it.
Better to let everyone continue to believe that nothing is wrong and if it is,
technologyGod will fix it.Fixed. This is America, after all.
Might be before 2016. Ask your friend to draw a graph then curve fit it. Positive feedback is usually an exponential growth until a physical limit is reached. If, when that limit is reached, the forces reverse, an exponential rush to the lower limit is reached, resulting in oscillation ranging from triangular waves (weak feedback) to square waves (very string feedback). In between you get noisy crap that looks like the stock market.
Linear growth is an approximation. exponential growth is another approximation albeit a closer approximation. Catastrophes are much more complex. At least third order.
I’ve been hearing the argument all day that this is just a shift because the temps have dropped and there is ice build up in Antartica. Sigh. There was a Forbes article that everyone is pointing to.
On YT just now, the Rep was making the argument that we’re better off relying on our technology to fix the effects of global warming rather than trying to prevent it. That way we can keep subsidizing BigOil rather than wasting anything on alternative fuels.It’s a long hard road with their brains littering the arguments.