Walter Shapiro went to Ohio to explore his theory that Obama might lose because of a bad economy. What he discovered was something completely different.
COLUMBUS, Ohio – There are only two plausible explanations for what is going on this week in this swing state central to virtually all Mitt Romney’s victory strategies.
Either many top Ohio Republicans are in the grips of the worst panic attack since an Orson Welles 1938 radio drama convinced thousands that the earth was under attack by Martians. Or more likely, judging from the comments of these GOP insiders, Romney’s hopes of carrying Ohio are fast dwindling to something like the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot.
Shapiro discovered that no one likes Mitt Romney. One insider said, “Romney is a guy who is used to talking to the board of directors instead of the shareholders or the employees.” It seems to be the consensus.
“The Obama people have convinced Ohio voters of two things,” says Curt Steiner, a well-connected Republican public relations strategist. “That Mitt Romney doesn’t believe anything. And what he does believe is all anti-middle class.”
I’d argue that Romney has done plenty of the convincing, too. It seems like he’s mainly been campaigning against himself. It seems like Ann Romney is campaigning against him, too, saying that his biggest challenge in office would be maintaining his “mental well-being.” I mean, you know, no one knows Mitt better than Ann. If your own wife has doubts that you are tough enough to handle the job, what is left to talk about?
Just so you are clear what this all means, if Romney loses Ohio, he can win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, and still lose the Electoral College 270-268. To win, he would have to win all those states and either New Hampshire or New Mexico, too.
What I am saying is that Romney’s goose is cooked.
I took Ann’s remark to be an insider’s knowledge that her husband has already demonstrated crying jags and temper tantrums. I’m now anticipating the stress of the last month to translate into him having a postal episode at the debates.
Yep. Was obvious with his Rick Perry meltdown.
missed that debate (no access), what happened? was that the bet? putting his hand on RP’s shoulder?
The whole culmination of the bet and putting his hand on his shoulder. He was visibly shaken.
interesting. I think we may well see Romney crack. he’s pretty fragile. The “Romeny-Ryan” chant moment was truly bizarre.
Me too. If he’s properly needled, he’ll snap. When he starts sweating and running on with a bunch of extra words in his responses, he’s ready. I am sure Obama already knows when to just step back and let him hang himself.
He behaves like a compulsive gambler, betting and losing bigger and bigger with each hand, trying to get his compounded losses back. He’ll lose his shit and snap at anyone in his path. It’s really unattractive.
I agree. I think Mitt has a very real temper. Think back to the high school bullying incident. That was some real rage there.
Combine his nasty bullying character with a temper, a grandiose sense of entitlement, being surrounded by yes men and people whose sole job it was to make more money for him, and always getting what he wanted just by writing a big enough check.
What we have then is someone who must be angrier and more frustrated by the day at having to ask the little people for something. And especially at the idea that the little people can tell him no.
could be he doesn’t put 2 and 2 together and doesn’t know he has to ask the little people for something. but he’s becoming angry and confused. also possible his handlers are shielding him from the reality of the polls. – back in the Stephen Colbert roast of W Bush, when Colbert mentions Bush’s 30% poll ratings, Bush jumps, visibly startled. Imo Bush did not know his poll numbers
Ohio’s economy is by no means booming, nor is unemployment turning around in a hurry, but things ARE getting better for the state. The fact that Romney continues to disparage unions and the blue collar workers has hurt him here. When he recently visited Fairborn, the gathering was pretty small. He seems to have turned off the base Republicans, who would never vote for a Democrat, but might just not make it to the polls in November, or tap the screen for Romney/Ryan and stick with local issues.
I think we’re seeing the avalanche effect, something that Team Obama has played beautifully. The campaign has taken Romney’s weak points and replayed them, adding his new mistakes to the others, repeating over and over the very words that came out of his own mouth. Bain Capital, refusal to turn over tax returns, insulting everyone on his trip to the Olympics, the 47%, and his obvious lack of concern for non-corporate entities. This is a landslide of information that will hopefully bury him, once and for all.
Is it time to bring back Seamus?
Surely you’ve seen Dogs Against Romney. I’ve seen several of their bumper stickers on cars around town. My favorite is a picture of a happy dog saying “I ride inside.” And “Dogs Against Romney.com” along the bottom. You don’t realize it’s political even until you’ve taken the whole thing in.
Maintaining mental well-being seems like a perfectly reasonable significant concern for anyone who makes it into that office.
Though it’s not a very politic answer.
It could well turn into a landslide – and if it does we can expect to hear Boo crowing about his prediction for at least 2 years afterwards. 🙂
An interesting article is on TPM today related to this:
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/democratic-tv-ads-romney-47-percent.php
If you read down a ways you’ll get this comment:
Bill Burton of Priorities USA, the Democratic super PAC tasked with re-electing the president, recounted earlier in the campaign that they had trouble convincing voters in focus groups that Romney had supported Paul Ryan’s budgets privatizing Medicare while cutting taxes for the rich because they didn’t believe any presidential nominee would endorse such an idea.
To overcome this obstacle, Burton sought to wear down Romney’s image by portraying him as an uncaring plutocrat in order to lay the foundation for later attacks focusing on actual tax and budget policy. Whatever the cause, Romney’s personal popularity is now at historically low levels for a major party nominee and there’s mounting polling evidence that swing voters, including seniors, are growing concerned about Ryan’s proposals.
Now Priorities USA sees Romney’s “47 percent moment” as its best bridge between its personal attacks and policy attacks. “It has broken through in a really profound way,” Burton told TPM Friday, noting one recent PPP poll in Florida showed a whopping 89 percent of voters were aware of Romney’s comments.
So, I’m sure most of us heard the story earlier this year about how the Ryan plan – passed by the GOP House! – was so extreme that voters simply wouldn’t believe it. So they started on the Bain/Offshoring attacks instead. What I don’t recall from their earlier stories was that this was intentionally laying the groundwork for bringing in the policy stuff at the very end.
If this was the plan all along it was freaking brilliant. As are the ads that TPM links to (the last is the best). The GOP keeps talking about how they want the election to be about different visions for the future – but even their own rank-and-file don’t know what’s in the bills in all those votes-for-show the GOP took in the house – and if they did most of them would be shocked. The GOP policies are extreme – the challenge has been to get the low info voters to understand what they really are and not the soundbite version. If Obama’s team succeeds at this is it is a major victory for the party – not just for his campaign.
I notice that one of Obama’s ads points out that Romney hasn’t release tax returns before 2010. I am very encouraged by this because Axlerod and company don’t take unnecessary risks. They wouldn’t be riding that if they didn’t know that Romney WON’T release those returns because there is something to hide. I assume, then that at worst they know they’ll remain hidden – and at best they know they’ll be released as the October Surprise.
Cut! Print! That’s a wrap!
That Politico article yesterday about how this colossal weakness was actually a personal strength if people could just see his “executive temperament” was really making me giggle.
It seemed for awhile that Mitt was trying to move back to the center. But everytime he made a more central tack, his handlers would come out in the following hours ‘correcting’ him. At first I thought it was just the element of the wingers trying to corral their candidate.
Now I wonder if the handlers have taken on a 2ndary job? Do they try and mediate ambushes so their candidate won’t meltdown in public? Ann’s let loose a couple of nasties, is she just reflecting her husband’s backroom state of mind?
Just read this about Ohio. No real evidence, but I do know that my fam and friends on twitter both “brown” and “black” are very engaged and the voter suppression/ID laws are high motivaters.
What I do know is that the national urban radio shows (Tom Joyner, Rickey Smiley, Steve Harvey, Michael Baisden, are all doing daily political briefs on the day’s/week’s political news and also almost daily telling people to GOTV and reminding them that certain people are trying their darndest to silence your vote so make sure they are registered and if not to get registered and also once you are registered, how to make sure you have important info (dates, ID, times, etc) you need to know so that when you do go vote, you won’t have any hassle.
IMHO, there is no greater motivater than to tell people that the rights they have fought far are being threatened or comprimised in a bad way.
Restrictive voting laws inspire minority backlash
Restrictions now a rallying cry
My favorite moment of today’s canvassing here in Ohio.
A middle aged lady tells me, through her front screen door, “Okay, I’ll tell right you up front, I’m voting for Obama. And I don’t like all this political door to door stuff. But thank God you’re not a Republican.”
very nice!
Forwarded your comment to my OFA group who have been making persuasion calls to Ohio the last couple of weeks. Thanks Richard!
Wouldn’t it be great if this campaign had the effect of putting a shiv into the whole notion of “running Government like a business?”
And when you’ve got Ann Romney speculating about your mental well-being, wow, you’re in serious trouble.