Jeb Bush has certain vulnerabilities as a potential presidential candidate that are particular to him. Collectively, they could be as damaging as Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital. It could be that he just isn’t a viable contender. I’m open-minded about that. What I don’t agree with is the idea that his last name is a big problem.
It’s obviously not helpful to share a name with two former presidents, neither of whom who are remembered fondly. But the truth is that W. was an anomaly in the family. His father was an extraordinarily shady man with deep ties into the worst elements of our intelligence community. But he was also a competent president who ably managed the fall of the Berlin Wall and the crumbling of the Soviet Union. He was not a movement conservative or a neo-conservative or a paleoconservative. Of all the Republican presidents since Eisenhower, Poppy is the only one I would trust with our national security. That doesn’t mean I would like his foreign policy, but I’d trust that he wouldn’t get us all killed. The closest facsimile to Poppy is Jeb. He’s literally the only person on the right who could plausibly be a commander in chief in four years.
I would expect the base of the party to be very resistant to nominating Jeb, but they were very reluctant to nominate McCain and Romney, too. You can’t beat something with nothing. And if Jeb Bush has no stronger competition than Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum, he’s a shoo-in to win the nomination.
The Democrats would naturally try to tie Jeb to his brother, but he’s really not like his brother at all. I can’t think of a Republican in the whole country who would be one-tenth as formidable as a candidate as Jeb Bush. I am certain he would have done better this year than Mitt Romney did. And I have no desire to face him in four years.
There is a word that most Americans do not like: dynasty.
They didn’t like the Kennedys because of it. They were very scared of the Clinton two-fer because of it. And they won’t like the Bushes to try for it.
It’s not the Bush name and W’s reputation he has to overcome, it’s the notion that his family intends to control American politics for generations. So a young Bush entering politics is not a a great help to Jebbie right now.
Americans don’t like dynasties? First I’ve heard of it.
Also it almost sounds like Booman is conceding the White House. It’s obviously not the case but still.
Americans say they don’t like dynasties. They also say they don’t like negative campaign ads, and obesity, and the purchase of foreign oil.
Americans are full of shit.
I am not conceding anything. It just grates on me when I see progressives welcoming the candidacy of Jeb Bush because I think he is the biggest threat the right has for retaking the White House.
I think Jeb Bush would be tough to beat. He would bring the party back from the crazy. His position on immigration is a strength – hopefully that issue is resolved before ’16. Hillary would be the only one with the stature and appeal that could beat him IMO.
Would be pretty wild if it were Bush v. Clinton in 2016 again.
DOOOOOOMED
I am certain he would have done better this year than Mitt Romney did. And I have no desire to face him in four years.
Why? What makes you think he’ll do better than Willard? Republicans share of the white vote will decline. Will they really pick up a significant share of the non-white vote between now and then? I doubt it. Not since the Teahadists are still in control. And Bush wasn’t exactly great as Florida governor. I’m more worried about the Democrats nominating a Wall Street tool like Cuomo.
2 words Terri Schiavo
What, you can’t see Scott Brown as Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces?
I forgot that Jeb was at the heart of the Schiavo episode.
I would love to see a candidate get beaten up for being too close to anti-communist Cubans.
He may be the best of the Republican candidates, but that isn’t saying much.
First, I think you have to understand that the wingnut base and their aristocratic masters will vote Republican even if you run a dog turd (see, e.g. Mitt Romney). We’ve seen that gives them 47% of the vote.
Second, the undecided 5-10 percent–what would be a polite but accurate way of describing them? Persuadable? You only need to persuade 3.0000001% of the persuadable voters that your client ISN’T a dog turd and you win.
Third, you are going to have hundreds of millions to convince the persuadables they are mistaken about the turd-like odor coming from their candidate.
Fourth, you just need to find a candidate who doesn’t disrespect half the electorate or more–ON VIDEOTAPE–that he thinks they are dog turds.
Jeb Bush could easily win in 2016 and he will have the establishment behind him if he decides to run.
On Bush family integrity:
In eight years as governor of Florida, Jeb saw the state’s propensity for hurricanes as a profit making opportunity as well as a photo op. I can’t even guess what his posing to hand out water bottles to storm victims cost me as a Florida taxpayer.
Don’t get me started on the stolen election of 2000.
There are so few pols that I would trust less than Jeb.
Jeb was governor of Florida when the 2000 election was stolen. Do you think he’ll be able to overcome that one?
Who will tell the people that the 2000 election was stolen?
I read Booman every day, but sometimes I get the feeling that this whole blog is an elaborate effort to troll Republicans. Booman has admitted doing this before, from his ratfucking of Larry Johnson to his overconfident predictions of an Obama landslide.
Now this. “Jeb Bush is a formidable candidate, no one will tie him to W, please GOP don’t nominate him.” I can’t tell if Boo really believes this, or if he is trying to psyche the GOP into nominating an unelectable candidate.
My own opinion is that while Jeb would have been a great nominee for the GOP if his brother had never been president, the Bush name is now completely toxic. Jeb is not W, but he is his brother, and there’s no way he can go through a whole election distancing himself from his own brother’s failures (or, alternatively, speaking kindly of his brother’s legacy). It’s an impossible balancing act.
If 2016 is Clinton vs Bush, I really like our chances. Let’s be honest.
The usual media suspects will be delighted to explain, over and over for as long as necessary, that Jeb is the different Bush, the moderate Bush, the reasonable Bush, etc, etc, etc.
If 2016 is Clinton vs. Bush, Jeb wins. Let’s hope the public is so sick and tired of these two families that neither chooses to run.
His presence would help with Democratic enthusiasm. I mean, I would walk through a firestorm to vote against that muthaphucka after 2000. I’ll never forget that.
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I’m guessing that at best, he’d have to buy Mutt’s etch-o-sketch just to get the nod, because there’s not gonna be an end to the rightwingnut crazy and its escalation until they hit the proverbial wall, which may or may not happen between now and then.
Columba Bush’s parents were migrant workers. That with her ethnicity will resonate with Hispanic voters, but Tea Partiers will hate it. Enough to deny him the nomination? They couldn’t stop Romney, could they? OTOH, if the 2016 Dem candidate is white, such as Biden or Clinton, a lot of Dem racists will come back.
among many faults, both mccain and romney bombed because they were horrible campaigners. despite being seasoned politicians neither could navigate the wretched platform they needed to sell and both were consistently horrible in front of the camera. lastly, they were facing one of the best endurance campaigners of this generation.
i have no idea of jeb’s campaigning skills. can he do what mccain and romney failed to do? that’s the real question.
Jeb would be a much better campaigner…probably the best Republican since Reagan.
McCain and Romney were fake people from the word “Go,” and veered right to become fake conservatives. Jeb is more of the real deal, and with far more bona fides than his lazy brother.
I think Jeb’s fatal flaw is his arrogance. Dubya was stupid-arrogant, but Jeb is overconfident-arrogant in the vein of Romney.
But it won’t matter. I think the wild card in the 2016 election will be the state of the economy by then. Haven’t read anyone talking about this yet. I expect the economy will be far better. And if it is, THAT’S when Jeb’s last name will be toxic….like a candidate named “Hoover” running for election after FDR’s success.
Heard him on an interview yesterday talking shit about educational testing standards…that teachers don’t have to “teach to the test” but do it any. Florida schools
Oops…didn’t edit before POST. Meant to delete the last comment, an unnecessary tangent.
I think the GOP field looks pretty strong at first blush. Jeb Bush, Christie, and Jindal all strike me as strong candidates. I have a feeling Kelly Ayotte is maneuvering for a run as well. I wouldn’t rule out Rubio and Paul Ryan either. Mitch Daniels might decide he really wants the job after all. There are a lot of possibilities out there.
I don’t get why Booman is so dismissive of Jindal. I know Jindal reminds him of some character on a TV show I never saw, but so what? He’s been nationally prominent for, it seems, forever, but in 2016 he’d still be younger at 45 than Bush was when he was first elected governor of Florida.
The next generation of GOP candidates has a lot of stars. In 2016, Jindal, Ayotte, Ryan, and Rubio will all be between 45 and 48. Christie will just have turned 50. After losing with two candidates on (or refusing to be on) Medicare, the GOP might be looking for an infusion of youth. Not a good sign for Jeb, but it’s silly to be handicapping the race so far in advance.
I think the Democrats also has some stars and talents. It’s just that when a party holds the White House everybody else gets overshadowed.
They are only stars to “DA BASE”.
That easily gets you the nomination, and just as easily gets you 206 EVs. Nominating Micky Mouse will do approximately the same.
Jindal not only looks like a dork, he IS a dork. He can’t think well under pressure and he shows it.
Jeb Bush looks good, but I don’t think he has the fire in the belly for a bruising campaign. Remember, DA BASE doesn’t like GW any better than the rest of America. It is not a lead pipe cinch that they’ll fall in line.
Christie is beloved of DA BASE … NOT! He has a Jersey attitude, Jersey accent and will not suffer fools easily. Do you really want to see sparks fly? Put Pat Robertson on the same stage with Christie and let go. I’ll concede his Catholiscism won’t hurt since Mormonism went down like candy. But it won’t help either.
Mitch Daniels would love the job, really. He just doesn’t want the savaging it would take to get there. Besides … the same 206 EV. Its not like MD in Indianna is a poster boy for social values in CA, MA, NY or NM.
I’ll pass on Ryan. I don’t know what is going to happen to Social Security or Medicare, but if he has a hand in cutting benefits on Medicare you better believe the TP will be after his hair. And not the hair on his head, either.
Rubio is never going to be a threat to any democrat nationally. The Hispanic American world is not impressed, why should the R’s be? He might not even be a major threat in Florida real soon. Born in Cuba Floridian voters broke 55-45 for Romney. Born in the US of Cuban ancestry broke for Obama 60-40(here). Primary him with a RW Loon (anybody named Harris would do) and let a well known Democratic Cuban ancestry (re: Cristina Saralegui) announce for the Senate and …?
I generally agree with Boo but not this time. For Romney to win the nomination, he had to run far to the right. McCain too. Bush would alienate too many in the Republican base with his non-repudiated stance on immigration. I don’t see Jeb crawling over broken glass the way McCain and Romney did.
Plus, he looks way too much like his brother to be able to steer clear of a strong association. If he won the nomination, too many Republicans would stay home for both reasons.
It would be interesting to see what role George and George jr would have at a Jeb convention. Family loyalty says they get to speak, but I wonder.
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“That doesn’t mean I would like his foreign policy, but I’d trust that he wouldn’t get us all killed.”
I beg to differ! While George Bush was a much more intelligent, sophisticated, ivy-league kind of president than “W”, he was deeply involved in many of the disasters of the past 35 years, such as Iran, Nicaragua (Iran-Contra) and the Mujahedeen.
In the late 1980s, Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, concerned about the growing strength of the Islamist movement, told President George H. W. Bush, “You are creating a Frankenstein.” — “The Road to September 11”. Evan Thomas. Newsweek. 1 October 2001.
http://www.historycommons.org/entity.jsp?entity=benazir_bhutto
‘By 1993, President Bhutto tells Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that Peshawar is under de facto control of the mujaheddin, and unsuccessfully asks for military help in reasserting Pakistani control over the city. Thousands of mujaheddin fighters return to their home countries after the war is over and engage in multiple acts of violence. One Western diplomat notes these thousands would never have been trained or united without US help, and says, “The consequences for all of us are astronomical.” [Atlantic Monthly, 5/1996]’
Hell, that policy was initiated by Jimmy Carter and Z-Big, and continued primarily though the efforts of Democratic Congressman Charlie Wilson. Poppy was always more involved with the Iranians and the Contras.
” … as vice president in the mid-eighties, Bush supported aiding the mujahideen in Afghanistan through the Maktab al-Khidamat (MAK) or Service Offices, which sent money and fighters to the Afghan resistance in Peshawar. “Bush was in charge of the covert operations that supported the MAK,” says John Loftus, a Justice Department official in the eighties. “They were essentially hiring a terrorist to fight terrorism.”
“Cofounded by Osama bin Laden and Abdullah Azzam, the MAK was the precursor to bin Laden’s global terrorist network, Al Qaeda. …” — Craig Unger, House of Bush, House of Saud”, Simon & Schuster (2004), p.102.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Unger
Doesn’t matter. With any GOP presidency, but especially with Jeb! Bush, the neocons like John Bolton and Richard Perle are going to want their pounds of flesh. If you get Jeb!, the neocons are part of the package.
Wasn’t the Jebster one of the original signers of Bill ‘William the Bloody” Kristol’s PNAC letter to Clinton?