I still don’t see how John Boehner can convince his caucus to vote for a bill that the president negotiated and that the Democratically-controlled Senate will support. I think the right spent too much time turning Obama into a monster. And they can’t support anything he is trying to do.
I keep reading about how the fiscal cliff will be averted by some last-second compromise. I believe a compromise can be reached. I don’t believe the House Republicans can supply enough votes to make the compromise stick.
What do you think?
I think if the Medicare age is raised that we were sold out. Matthew Yglesias isn’t exactly the most progressive person in the world — in fact, he’s the embodiment of the neoliberal technocrat. And even he thinks it’s a terrible idea. And whether or not its agreed to, I’m getting tired of constantly being negotiated in passing for a deal that won’t pass. It’s not helping the next new baseline.
I think there will be a lot of shrieking and howling and then at the last minute the House will pass the Senate bill on a voice vote.
So you think the speaker will pass his own deal. Wow. I don’t believe Ms. Nancy will go along with a voice vote. We are going over the cliff and the corporation/business class will be doing all the shrieking and howling.
“the Yeas and Nays of the Members of either House on any question shall, at the desire of one fifth of those present, be entered on the Journal.”
US constitution, Art I, Sec 4, 3rd clause.
I think it’s likely that there are 1/5 of the House that would like to get the rest “on the record” about their fiscal-cliff vote.
And I would hope that they have the good sense to get their desire stated in writing in advance, to prevent any procedural shenanigans.
What I fear will happen is that a compromise about midway between current positions may be offered, and, if so, all the Dems in the House will be expected to vote for it, including raising the Medicare age, and, while it will also have some tax rate increase, 37, 38 percent, only 25 or 30 Repubs will vote for it. Enough to make it pass, but not enough that the Repubs will have to answer for it – the bulk will have kept their pledge and also voting to defend Medicare. Nancy is the only thing I see in the way of this. The Repubs pulled this on TARP – promising to vote for it and then not – and Pelosi let it fail. Eventually, the compromise let many more Repubs than Dems off the hook of voting for it, but still had substantial Repub support.
My bottom line is, if it has to pass the House substantially with Dem votes, it must be substantially a Dem bill. Bit of compromise, but it Boehner wants major concessions, he must bring the votes. Best way to ensure this is to have the liberals make it clear what they will not vote for, regardless of what Obama or Pelosi say.
I think Boehner has the worst job in Washington. Obama warned the Republicans during the debate over health care. He was very clear. If these issues are demagogued, you’ll back yourself into a corner. The Republicans chose to ignore him. They thought they could run him from office. Now Cantor and Ryan are doing their best to lay low and not get their fingerprints on anything. Boehner’s screwed. Might as well just turn in the gavel or break it over his knee or crush it with one of the spare jack boots they keep lying around.
The Republicans are going to splinter. Obama foresaw this too. The fever will break, he said. It is breaking. I predict a group of Republicans (from moderate districts) will vote with Democrats to pass the Senate bill. Others (from tea-bagging districts) will whine and yell and scream, which is what they do best and really the only thing they do well.
The next two years will be about picking off enough Democrats to pass bills through the House and forcing Republicans to filibuster the old fashioned way in the Senate.
Picking off enough Republicans — that’s what I meant.
It seems like the Democrats think that Boehner can deliver the repeal of the requirement for congressional debt limit approval in exchange for the some item delivered by the Democrats – higher Medicare age or lower top bracket income tax rates, rather than expiration.
Boehner will definitely need Democratic votes in the House to do that and unless he delivers a majority of Republicans in the House, it may be essentially his last act as speaker.
Higher Medicare age is beyond stupid, so my guess is not a complete raise to pre-Bush top tax rate, plus the FICA/unemployment extensions.
And then it’s on to Obamacare implementation under somewhat normal divided government terms. I.e. corporate lobbyists write the laws and pay their ‘elected’ minions to do whats good for the masters and also good for the re-election finances of the minions.
They’ve made the deal. I saw Durbin minutes ago on the news saying he agreed to means testing of Medicare. With Congress presenting him a bi-partisan bill Obama will be forced to sign it. Or will he be forced? Did Obama agree and Durbin is delivering the news? Surely Durbin knows that he is cutting Obama’s legs off if Obama did not agree to this.
Anyway, it seems the deal is done. To avoid a minor rise in middle-class taxes, Democrats are giving the death stroke to Medicare, something the Republicans have wanted for two generations. For make no mistake, no matter how high the threshold is made now, the blow is mortal. Medicare is no longer a universal right of every American. It has become a welfare program and will be shrunk and starved further until some President, probably a Democrat, “ends Medicare as we know it”.
If they means test it will it be just for the poor, like Medicaid?
That will drive working class retirees deeper into poverty, just as making them rely on Medicaid would.
Yes, Philo, see my reply below. No matter how high they start, it will wind up for the utterly impoverished. My late mother did not qualify even though she was over 80, had no house, a ten year old car, had a $1108 monthly income with $800 going to medicine. But she had $10,000 worth of AT&T stock that she stubbornly held on to, IMHO so she could pretend she was still middle class not in poverty, so she did not qualify because she was only allowed $3000 in assets. She died owing $11,000+ on credit cards but my sister got the stock because it was joint tenancy with right of survivorship. Mom got the last laugh on the big New York banks, because they got bumpkiss.
Medicare is means-tested. Already.
You pay a higher premium if you are higher income, but you still have Medicare coverage. What they are talking about is taking away coverage if your income is too high. That turns Medicare into Medicaid.
I liked your first thought.
To hell with it!
Over the cliff!
Times like this you want to scream “Up against the wall, motherfucker!”
Line the bastards up and just shoot them.
The big problem is that the Dems can go right over the cliff, fter that the pressure will be even greater on the Republics.
A lot of the thinking about this depicts the Debt Ceiling as the great GOP bargaining chip. Surely the Dems will have to give them something to ease off. The problem is that it’s not a bargaining chip, it’s a bomb. It’s not just something the Democrats don’t want, it’s something no responsible citizen wants, and something that can now be seen to have done more harm to the GOP than to the Dems.
If causing the country significant economic harm, as they did last time, is such a great bargaining chip, then they ought to be able to get anything they want with it. The whole Ryan budget and more. But they can’t.
Yesterday’s GOS front-pager says: “President Obama’s political strategy is clear–place all of the pressure he can muster on House Republicans to raise the debt ceiling period. No negotiations. Not even an acknowledgment of the constitutional issues. Round up business leaders to urge the debt ceiling not be held hostage.”
Not only that, the piece goes on to argue that in the event the House does not raise the debt ceiling, the president would then have the right, indeed the duty, to prioritize spending. In other words, simply by administrative order he could shut down whatever programs HE considered unnecessary spending.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/12/09/1168027/-Public-debt-of-the-United-States-shall-not-be-ques
tioned-the-14th-Amendment-and-the-debt-ceiling
The intransigent House Republics might want to think twice about this debt ceiling thing.
It certainly does not appear from the rumors and scraps of rumors that the public (and Congress) are receiving that Obama has decided to hold the feet of the braindead, irresponsible Tea Party House to the fire. Too many appalling leaks of idiotic things being “on the table” to discount them all. Raising Medicare age, stricter means testing, etc.
Boner’s House of Yokels has proven a dozen times over that it is not remotely a serious legislative body. How could it be, with the abject clowns it has a members? The last thing on earth that should be attempted in the last 10 lame duck days of the worst Congress in history is massive changes and fake “reforms” to enormous benefit programs like Medicare. There’s no macroeconomic reason to do so. Certainly there’s no political reason.
The WH should have simply said to Herr Boner: “Pass the middle class tax cuts extension in the next 5 days. If you don’t do that, it’s clear you haven’t learned/accepted one thing and there won’t be any more fiscal cliff “negotiations” (mano-a-mano or otherwise). We’ll deal with the new Congress when it arrives”. And then start explaining the budget situation 24/7 to the nation and demand that the worthless corporate media actually start to do its job. Now that would be time well spent, as opposed to drinking coffee with the hung-over Boner before his next three martini “lunch” commences.
Boner’s Boneheads created the fucking fiscal cliff. I’d say most of them don’t even know what it means. “Conservative” morons, for example, appear to think that it meas that the debt will actually INCREASE if we go off the cliff. Look at the imbecile Corker’s comments, seeking $2 trillion more in spending cuts to extend the ceiling again! Clueless and incompetent as a “statesman”. Can’t grasp reality.
But Repubs fight and Dems “compromise”. That’s the chief problem as I see it. So we all await the terms of the deal that our secretive Dukes and Lords have “negotiated” for us. Good luck, Pelosi Dems, you’ll be expected to shovel the shit and muck out the stinking outhouse again, just like the TARP, while the tea party turds vote “present” or something.
“I think the right spent too much time turning Obama into a monster. And they can’t support anything he is trying to do. “
That is exactly correct. Defeating Obama as a top priority might have been a good strategy so long as they were absolutely sure they would do it.
Now they are stuck looking either weak or unprincipled. Or demoralizing their base. None of that is good.
That’s what happens when you let fear, racism, fact-free thinking, or just ideology over-ride practical common sense and/or clear strategic thinking.
Another example of how smart the Obama camp really is and how over-matched the GOP is.
The strategy is to force all Democrats in the House to vote for cuts and just enough Republicans to pass the compromise. Same in the Senate. That allows the maximum number of Republicans to keep their “no taxes” pledge.
So watch for “just enough Republicans” to say they have to vote for it because of the fiscal cliff and Grover Norquist is wrong.
Then the the other shoe is the attack in 2014 on the Democrats in the House and Senate for voting to cut Medicare and Social Security.