I’ve been busy celebrating my son’s third birthday this afternoon, so I have had to do a bit of reverse engineering to try to ascertain how things unfolded during the day. As I understand it, the House caucus met once at midday and then again just after 5pm. Ryan Grim’s reporting relates to the first of the two meetings. Apparently, it became clear that there was a division in the leadership team, with Boehner pointing out that the Senate bill passed with overwhelming Republican support and Paul Ryan saying that he opposed the bill. Eric Cantor went further, arguing “vociferously” against the bill, and then going on CNN after the meeting to drive home the point. Rep. Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, who was recently stripped of one of his committee assignments, said that conservatives were “heartened” to see Cantor take on the Speaker in front of the whole caucus.
Yet, no one is really talking about today’s impasse as part of some kind of coup against Boehner. Jennifer Rubin suggested that Boehner should resign if he can’t get the bill passed, but she didn’t predict that he would. Her point was that he should step down if he can’t lead this group of miscreants. But I am not sure if it is his choice anymore. Losing the battle over Plan B was bad enough, but to have Cantor and Ryan openly defying him in today’s first caucus meeting has to be seen as a clear indication that his power is spent.
Try to imagine, if you can, Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn pulling a similar kind of stunt on Nancy Pelosi. It’s impossible to imagine. That’s why I think we are quite possibly witnessing less of a freak-out over the terms of the deal than we are seeing a palace coup.
It’s just hard to see how or why the GOP caucus would reelect Boehner as their Speaker if they so obviously do not trust him or want to follow his lead.
I worry about making these kind of bold predictions, but I don’t think Boehner will still be Speaker if he can’t get this bill passed. If he does get it passed over the objections of his leadership team and most of his caucus, he could still be in danger.
Speaker Cantor? Boehner was simply incompetent. Cantor is ambitious, ruthless and crazy. Ryan as his second in command would make things worse.
If Cantor wasn’t making a power grab, he never would have gone of TV. My guess is Boehner will be out.
What do you think Obama would do with Cantor in charge?
I think it’s on the “record” that Obama can’t stand Cantor and we could only guess what he thinks of Paul Ryan. I think Obama doesn’t hate Boehner much if at all, so “working” with him wasn’t an “issue” (McConnell on the other hand, I think Obama doesn’t like stemming from McConnell’s “one term Prez” BS)
We’ve seen how acerbic Obama can be when he’s on his game and can’t stand his “opponent” (see debates 2 & 3 against Romney and his debates against McCain).
I can actually see Obama not even trying to work with Cantor and finding anyway he can to go around him if elected Speaker.
Probably. But remember, there is no ultimatum Obama means.
We know that Ryan is math challenged, but can Cantor count?
If he can hold Boehner to 30 GOP votes (+/- 2) among those that will return to the 213 Congress, the deal passes and Boehner loses as Speaker.
Well, if the Reyburn Building catches fire tonight…
They’ll need to dig up a socialist Muslim to hang it on, though.
Here’s to the Tea Partiers taking the entire Republican party over the cliff and into oblivion.
And yet the MSM continues to report Bone’s reelection as a done deal.
I don’t think Cantor wants to be Speaker now. He knows it’s a thankless job since (eventually) legislation that is acceptable to the Senate and Obama has to pass the House. He’s got a lot more power, with less responsibility, as a bomb-thrower on the sidelines.
I think he wants Boehner to be more compliant to the wishes of the Teabaggers, but doesn’t want to get his hands dirty.
Thus, I expect Boehner to remain Speaker as long as the Republicans have the majority and he still wants it. If he decides that he’s finally had enough of Cantor’s backstabbing, then he can resign, but I still don’t think Cantor would take the gavel. It would be someone Cantor anoints, though.
I think Cantor would love to be Speaker, but only if there’s a Republican Senate and President as well.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
I agree that Cantor doesn’t want to be speaker just yet. I wonder, though, if maybe Ryan would like to be speaker, with Cantor keeping his current role.
It certainly seemed like there was a one-two punch going on with both of them strongly opposing Boehner publicly in the same meeting today. Maybe it was just intimidation? An implied threat to Boehner to keep him from allowing an up or down vote as requested/demanded by the president?
I’m pretty sure there’s some game afoot in the leadership circles, I’m just not certain what it is.
One thing that strikes me is that although this is definitely a “show of power” on the part of Cantor and Ryan, it is not clear how much power they actually have now, or exactly what they are trying to do. It may not be clear to them either.
They know the present direction of things represents a threat to them. The real message here is not to Boehner, but to those House Republicans who may be thinking of voting with the Democrats. Boehner needs something like 40 to 45 such.
I agree with those that say Cantor doesn’t really want to be Speaker just now. He’s happier to have Boehner take the lumps.
One very important thing has already happened. A majority of GOP senators have just told the Tea Party to take a flying f-ck. The whole thing really comes down to whether there are 40-45 Republicans willing to do the same. If so, the tea party’s over. If not, the GOP will continue to rot.
I meant “40-45 House republicans”.
DKos is reporting that it appears likely to pass on a straight up or down vote, as the whip count shows that there aren’t enough votes for an amended bill with cuts added.
Plausible??
Yeah .. but does that mean with only 20 or so GOP’ers voting for it? If so, that means Orange Julius is on thin ice.
What’s the probable threshold of “thin ice”? 50? 75? 100?
It is almost impossible to determine how his caucus will respond here. It’s like trying to predict the behavior of a rabid animal.
I think he’ll need 50.
Be kind of interesting watching the vote on C-Span. I’m sure a huge chunk of the Republicans will hold their vote until the last possible moment.
You think there will be a mad scramble to determine who gets to stay on the good side of the Norquist pledge?
Norquist has given his seal of approval already.
Ah, I forgot that he already gave absolution. It seems like that was so long ago……
He has .. but I’d hate to see this thing pass with only like 20 GOPers voting for it
If Cantor or anyone else really wanted a coup, they could gather enough votes to vote for another choice and use that to take the election hostage: we’re voting for Ryan/Cantor/Bachmann no matter what you do. Keep pushing for a “moderate” and you end up with a Dem speaker because you don’t have a majority. Or go with our pick and at least keep a Rep speaker.
Is it totally unrealistic to think superidiot caucus would sacrifice the office to show off their “adherence to principle”? Wouldn’t be the first time. Continuing the fantasy, would such an outcome make any practical difference in the legislative session?
Committee Chairs and assignments?
Boner will have to call a straight up-or-down (the schaden: it freudes!) to get it through. He won’t, if he wants to stay Speaker. Then he and the House Republicans own the cliff, the stock market plunges by 1,000 points, and the news cycle is all about circuit breakers and what the market will do when it reopens. Then shit gets real.
11-dimensional chess? This one goes to 13. Many people will get hurt; they won’t forget. This may be the (very heavy) price we all pay to end the republican party.
Political Wire is reporting that there is a vote tonight at 9:30pm and it will likely pass.
https://www.facebook.com/Political.Wire
Despite my earlier misgivings I’ll give Obama a lot of credit if things shake out this way, with Cantor’s bluff being called followed by passage with a minority of Repub votes. To me the key thing is breaking the death grip of the Hastert rule, which is the only way the country will be governable for the next 2 years. If that precedent is set on this deal, it could represent real progress.
Lots of porky tax cuts in the Senate bill. A nice little $9 billion gift to Wall Street, extension of tax cuts for Indian employment and business property on Indian reservations (which Stoller characterizes as “casinos”), all couched as extensions of existing cuts.
Boehner, should just make sure that the first spending cut is de-funding the Bio-Defense lab at K-State Univ. which is in Huselkamp’s District.
A bit off topic: House Debate on Senate Bill on C-Span now [8:53].
Perhaps it is leading to a coup the other way…
Perhaps Boner organizes enough sane, frustrated, patriotic GOP members to approach the Dems with a deal that they will put the bill over the top if they in turn agree to vote for Boner as speaker.
Together they could render the whack jobs irrelevant, but it would effectively end the GOP as we know it.
Sure the odds are long but effectively that is what happened to the Whigs.
I think the vote for Speaker is restricted to the majority caucus, right?
Then entire House votes. See this.
Oddly, the Constitution does not state the Speaker has to be a member of the House.
“Then” s/b “The”
sigh