This is a just an exercise in fantasy. Imagine if America elects a Democrat as president in 2016 and then reelects them in 2020. Given the strength of the potential Democratic field of candidates and the weakness of the Republicans’ potential field, I do not consider this an outlandish fantasy. It would create a 16-year uninterrupted period of Democratic control of the White House. The only comparable period of sustained one-party domination of the executive branch occurred between 1933 and 1953, as FDR and Truman won five straight elections. We know that that period totally transformed America, almost entirely for the better. We also know that the conservative opposition to the early New Deal largely exhausted itself during that period and finally turned to Dwight Eisenhower and moderation in order to win back power.
This may be what we will be facing. In this scenario, it is 1937, which was not a good year for Roosevelt. In any case, since we’re fantasizing here, let’s imagine that it is January 20th, 2023, the midpoint of our hypothetical president’s second term. How old would the current members of the Supreme Court be?
Chief Justice John Roberts would be 66, but a week away from his 67th birthday.
Antonin Scalia would be 86.
Anthony Kennedy would be 86.
Clarence Thomas would be 74.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be 89.
Stephen Breyer would be 84.
Samuel Alito would be 72.
Sonia Sotomayor would be 68.
Elena Kagan would be 62.
Update [2013-1-28 21:38:23 by BooMan]: I had the year wrong. Midpoint of second term would be in January 2023, not 2022. Numbers updated to reflect that.
Obviously, there is no guarantee that any of them would have retired by then. John Paul Stevens recently retired at the age of ninety. Justices Roberts, Thomas, and Alito will still be relatively young. Still, there is a good chance that the four Justices who would be in their mid-to-late eighties would have been replaced by 2023.
On the other hand, if Clarence Thomas serves until he is 90, we will leave the Court in 2038. Christ, I hope that doesn’t happen.
So, feel free to speculate. How would this country be transformed after a 16-year run of Democratic control of the White House?
It’s hard to believe Thomas would be that young by then. But then I remember, he was nominated in his early 40’s…
Anyway, why are you so obsessed with 2016 and beyond lol?
Because I want to relax someday. And I think about what it would take to make me relax. And I realize that even 16 years of Democrats in the White House (2009-2025) would not necessarily get me a Court that I could relax about. And I want to use a drill on my brain.
Large bit, or small? Spade, Forstner, or high speed steel?
With the gerrymandered House it will be largely irrelevant until 2020, with the exception of the Surpemes as you’ve noted.
If Alito, Scalia and Thomas live to 90, never mind serving on the Court until 90, it would be a profound karmic injustice. If they serve when they’re that old, they will be among the most anachronistic Justices we’ve ever seen- the mind boggles.
(Are karmic injustices possible? Somebody help me out on the philosophy here.)
No, karmic injustices are not possible. But life is suffering, so what does that tell you?
That the arc of justice is very, very, very, very, very, very, very long.
Hey, I’m still reeling from the news that Ariel Sharon’s doctors are saying he has significant brain activity. Israel is having one heck of a week.
Add one year to each: the midpoint of President X’s second term falls on January 20, 2023.
thanks, will update.
Another one, Boo: Clarence Thomas was born in 1948, will be 90 in 2038.
Does this mean Europe is going to erupt in war in 2015? Because that streak might well not have happened were it not for some pretty unique circumstances in elections #3 and #4. Without consulting the list, I don’t think it had ever happened in the 140 or so years before FDR’s first term, never mind since. Even when the Whigs collapsed, it was in large part because a new and more appealing opposition party rose to supplant them, and they (the Republicans) were in power soon enough – the Whigs split in 1852 over abolitionists’ refusal to renominate president Millard Fillmore, and Lincoln was elected President eight years later.
Thesis topic: Our political system is chaotic, with a Lyapunov exponent of about a decade, give or take.
I don’t know. War could be coming.
More importantly, should this video be used to destroy the conservatives’ influence over the GOP, Iran’s nuclear program, or to unify the Korean Peninsula?
You’re losing it man.
I love this video. Cracks me up every time.
Holy crap. That had a WTF-per-second rate higher than any video I’ve seen in years. Thank you!
Boo, I am proud of you for posting this. I do it too, at times, just because I can, and in hopes that it will create a harmonic convergence of stupidity that resonates with the republican id, resulting in their leaving this earthly plain in a rapture straight to where they belong.
Hell.
So, not the Korean Peninsula, then.
But, Booman’s scenario is comparable to the New Deal era in that the FDR/Truman year followed a long era of Republican dominance that ended in massive economic collapse. And the last three Presidents before Roosevelt were some of the worst we’ve ever had: Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover. Obviously the parties were more ideologically diverse in those days, but outside of Wilson, Democrats did not catch a break from 1892-1928.
That said, and speaking actuarily…. I do not expect Scalia, Thomas, and Ginsburg to be on the court much longer. Scalia and Thomas seem, to me, to be clearly unhealthy, angry men. Jeffrey Toobin not to long ago described Thomas as overweight and looking old for his age. Scalia looks more every day like a corpulent judge from a Hogarth painting. Both men are clearly filled with rage which cannot be good for their cardiovascular systems. To be blunt, I expect them to step down or die in the bench in the next decade.
Ginsburg has many times expressed a desire to serve until age 78 as her idol Louis Brandeis did. I think that’s next year, so she will probably be Obama’s third seat to fill.
Kennedy I am not sure about. I think we’re stuck with Roberts and Alito for a long time. But if, under BooMan’s scenario, a modern GOP Eisenhower did get to replace them after 2024 it wouldn’t be so bad Supreme Court-wise: Eisenhower appointed Warren and Brennan, two of the greatest and most liberal SC justices of all time (albeit who he called his “two biggest mistakes”).
As for what will happen policy-wise, I basically expect the court to shift the law away from on emphasis on the rights of the business sector to act as it pleases (e.g. in terms of labor issues, hiring discrimination, the environment, political influence, etc) and towards the rights of average citizens to live safe, prosperous, and happy lives. A reform of the criminal justice system, with greatly enhanced 4th, 5th, and 8th Amendment protections (the 1st is still doing pretty good). Possibly a new articulation of the right to privacy. And in the face of climate change, we may see creation of new “rights” for animals, the planet itself, and future generations as a class. Douglas’s question of whether “trees have standing” may finally receive an answer.
The great achievements of the Warren court will not be repeated because racial and social barriers are not as stark today. But the legal framework that the Warren court helped set up has been under siege since Rehnquist became the Chief Justice, and that damage will finally start to be reversed.
In short, it would be pretty sweet. And I really think we can make it happen.
I went to high school and middle school with Justice Brennan’s granddaughter. I counted her as a friend. I knew her Granddad was on the Court at the time, but I had no idea how awesome he was.
Wow, that’s amazing. Did she ever talk about him? One of the greatest Americans to ever live.
My dad went to high school with Ruth Bader Ginsgurg. Of course he didn’t know at the time that she would one day be a big shot. He recalls her as a studious, quiet girl. Meanwhile, my dad was a football player who tried to be one of the cool kids (whatever that looked like circa 1950). He had no plans to ever attend college. His father owned a factory and his goal was to be a tool and die man. So it’s safe to say they weren’t friends. I’m not sure they ever even spoke to one another. But they probably would have recognized each other in the hall.
He went to his 50 year reunion but Ruthie wasn’t there.
I went to college with Scalia’s granddaughter, Katie. She defriended me from Facebook after I posted about something he said on his book tour, and then recalled the time he defended the state killing of mentally retarded people.
Yeah, but Eisenhower would be a liberal democrat by today’s warped standards.
“Author” Jerome Corsi would have income for the forseeable future.
The only comparable period of sustained one-party domination of the executive branch occurred between 1933 and 1953
In the current party system, anyway. The Revolution of 1800 led to a period of such total domination by one party that the other party just withered away. that was the end of the first party system. Thomas Jefferson was able to place not one but two chosen successors in the White House. I don’t feel like looking it up right now, but I think Monroe ran unopposed for his second term.
So it’s worth keeping in mind that other American parties have indeed been consigned to the dustbin of history as we work on annihilating the Republicans.
Also note that the Federalists killed themselves because of a feud between Adams and Hamilton; Hamilton killing the party because of his pride, but Adams killing the party because he was an asshole liar knowing Hamilton would destroy himself (and taking the party with it).
“Imagine if America elects a Democrat as president in 2016 and then reelects them in 2020.”
The pronoun you are looking for is “him.”