Although the legislation is still in a nascent form, it is beginning to look like the Senate is going to he able to introduce and pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill. The outline provides for an onerous pathway to citizenship, and it should be noted that John McCain and Jeff Flake, Arizona’s Republican senators, are going to be key co-sponsors of the bill.
The next question, however, is whether the House of Representatives will be able to follow suit and pass a bill that can be reconciled with the Senate bill. I have little doubt that the votes are going to be there, but I do not think it is likely that Speaker Boehner can pass a bill if he intends to honor the Hastert Rule. The Hastert Rule is named after former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, and it states that the Speaker will not allow votes on any bills that the majority of House Republicans do not support. Mr. Boehner has already violated the rule twice since November’s election. The first time was on New Year’s Eve when he averted the Fiscal Cliff, and the second time was when he passed disaster relief for the Mid-Atlantic’s efforts to recover from Superstorm Sandy. However, there is a limit to how often Boehner can dismiss the will of his caucus and still remain their leader.
I predict that Speaker Boehner will initially seek to pass an immigration reform bill that has the support of the majority of his caucus. He probably will succeed, but it won’t have any pathway to citizenship and it will probably have a few other poison pills, like mandatory biannual cavity searches of all people who register with the government as undocumented workers.
Once both the House and Senate have passed immigration bills, there will be Conference Committee that will attempt to meld the two bills together. It is quite possible that things will break down at that point and no bill will be produced. But it is also possible that the Senate will largely get its way and the bill will go back to the House in a form that most Republicans are unwilling to support.
Somewhat less likely is the prospect that the bill will come out in a form that Senate Democrats are unwilling to support.
It’s a positive sign that the Senate seems to have found a path forward, but it is still a long way from this initial agreement to final passage of a comprehensive bill.
Steve M. sees things similarly.
There are two things in this bill: Modifications of immigration and modifications of the job visa situation. These two are not related, but are dumped together into this bill. H-1B, L-1, F-1, O-1, B-1 and the other job visas are NOT immigration vehicles:
“The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa in the United States under the Immigration and Nationality Act, section 101(a)(15)(H). It allows US employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations.”
This temporary visa has been used to undercut, destroy, and otherwise totally screw up the employment for high tech workers. The fact is that since 1992, thousands of US IT and STEM workers have been laid off, and we hear nothing about these. The few cases (like the case of the engineer in TX last year) are seen as great shocks to many, but the fact is that there is a huge oversupply of IT and STEM persons.
In today’s Chronical of Higher Education, there is a front-page piece that all should read. Here is the first paragraph:
This disaster of a bill will first double the already-huge number of H-1B visas from 65K to 130K, and then allow an expansion up to 300K. 300,000 visas given to non-American students.
Our students need jobs, and should have a first opportunity.
The amazing thing is that the H-1B issue not even the front line. The H-1Bs are controlled in number. Other mechanisms (J-1) are not, and are being increasingly used.
We are in a recession, still. We have a jobs deficit. Many jobs being given are perma-temp jobs. My daughter who was 4 years on the Dean’s list and had a 3.9/4.0 at Univ of Illinois, is looking for jobs, and got many many offers for UNPAID INTERNSHIPS.
We hear about the need for jobs for veterans. We hear about the need for jobs for non-Americans.
Why don’t we hear about the need for jobs for our own students, our own children? Who is speaking for our children?
This provision is unacceptable:
[quote]
Under the senators’ plan, most illegal immigrants would be able to apply to become permanent residents — a crucial first step toward citizenship — but only after certain border enforcement measures had been accomplished.
Among the plan’s new proposals is the creation of a commission of governors, law enforcement officials and community leaders from border states that would assess when border security measures had been completed. A proposal would also require that an exit system be in place for tracking departures of foreigners who entered the country through airports or seaports, before any illegal immigrants could start on a path to citizenship.[/quote]
That’s got to come out of the bill for it to be considered.
Nobody thinks voting rights for the illegals would improve the position of the Republican Party.
On the contrary, it would put them deeper in the hole.
Republican Main Street wants the illegal deported.
Republican Wall Street wants dirt cheap labor to suppress wages for the American working class, but knows making voters of the illegals is a really bad idea for them, too.
Heck, the hard right plutes would like to flood the country with Latinos, if they could.
But not at the price of letting them vote.
Will the Rep side take their cue from Ryan’s budget and create an Immigration Bill that is deeply flawed but gives them a paper to wave at Latinos saying ‘see, we tried, we’re your friends’!
May I be wrong.
The Republican right wants illegals deported, yet they’re more than willing to take their money, use their labor, etc., and at the same time would miss it if it’s gone.
I truly believe the right wing enjoys the status quo on immigration. They really don’t want reform.
Millions of consumers, no voters.
Boehner seems to want immigration reform, if only to remove that particular reason for Latinos to hate Republicans. I suspect most House Republicans would be personally happy for the issue to be off the table as well. So I expect Boehner will figure out a way to bring a bill to the floor and, while the caucus may growl, they won’t do anything. Those truly offended will be in a minority.
There’s not much the caucus can do to Boehner until 2015 anyway. They certainly can’t throw him out just on Republican votes. I think even the Tea Party realizes that if they throw him out with Democratic votes they create a hung House (Tea Partiers, Establishment Republicans, and Democrats as effectively three separate parties). Since the Tea Party is much smaller, less flexible, and less politically skilled than the Democrats, a hung House is not likely to work out well for them. IMO the most likely outcome of that would be a establishment bipartisan deal where Boehner keeps the Speakership while the Democrats get a limited ability to bring legislation to the floor – which is exactly what the Tea Party doesn’t want. So they’ll whine, but live with it.
this bill will be passed with 85-90% Democratic votes.
so, here’s how it goes…
Orange Julius is gonna have to dispose of the Hastert Rule again
and Turtle Lips is gonna have to not filibuster and it be brought to the Senate floor for an up or down vote.
It doesn’t matter. The Latino community in general is quite sophisticated, politically. I believe the only identifiable latino community to fall for the “R’s are doing a good thing” are already Republican (but slipping fast): South Florida Cubans.
I’m thinking we need to expand reform to recognize that there’s a big bunch of Chinese illegally entering and residing in the Country. Not addressing non Latino illegal entry is just begging for a head slap.
I believe the Immigration Reform proposed by the Gang of 8 is Flawed. A person could wait a lifetime and never obtain their “green card” under this program. First, wait and go to the end of the line, could mean 20 years from today one would get their green card.
The perpetual and moving standard of “secure our borders” will never be met. Secure our borders too Latinos is the same as 40 acres and mule promise made long ago to freed Slaves.
The Latino voter wants to cash in its chip for voting for President Obama and not wait & watch for 20 years.