If you’re concerned about the talk of chemical weapons being used in the Syrian civil war, this piece by Dan Murphy in the Christian Science Monitor is useful for separating known facts from dangerous speculation. With Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and John McCain (R-AZ) calling for military intervention, things are ramping up.
“I have made clear that the use of chemical weapons is a game-changer,” Obama said Wednesday during a speech in Israel. “And I won’t make an announcement today about next steps because I think we have to gather the facts.”
We have to gather the facts, but some facts are already known.
Video footage and eyewitness accounts suggest that if a chemical agent was used in a missile attack on Khan al-Aasal that reportedly killed 31 people and wounded more than 100, it was most likely a riot-control agent designed to cause irritation, which is not generally lethal.
“In the end, all I can say with confidence is that whatever the conventional or non-conventional munition was, it was not a CW [Chemical Weapons] agent as defined by the CWC [Chemical Weapons Convention],” says Charles Blair, senior fellow for state and non-state threats at the Washington-based Federation of American Scientists.
The Assad regime has asked the United Nations to investigate, presumably because they know that no chemical munitions have been used (at least, not by them). Yet, we have our lawmakers jumping the gun.
On Tuesday night, Rep. Mike Rogers (R) of Michigan, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, took to CNN to declare he was mostly convinced that chemical weapons had been used.
“I have a high probability to believe that chemical weapons were used,” he said. “We need that final verification, but given everything we know over the last year and a half, I … would come to the conclusion that they are either positioned for use, and ready to do that, or in fact have been used … we need to step up in the world community to prevent a humanitarian disaster we haven’t seen since Halabja 25 years ago in Iraq, where they killed 30,000 people with chemical weapons.”
Those assertions were not backed up by an offered evidence, nor was the method by which he had determined a “high probability” explained. Wolf Blitzer, the host of the show that Representative Rogers appeared on, did not challenge his assertions or follow up by asking for evidence, moving quickly to ask Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California, chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, if she agreed with Rogers. She said she did.
“I agree with the comments that Chairman Rogers has made. We hear all this in a classified session, this is highly classified, we have been advised to be very careful with what we say. I’m told that the White House has been briefed the same thing that we have been briefed. What I said earlier is that the White House has to make some decisions in this. I think the days are becoming more desperate, the regime is more desperate, we know where the chemical weapons are. It’s not a secret that they’re there and I think the probablities are very high that we’re going into some very dark times and the White House has to be prepared.”
So, let’s look at this. Carl Levin is the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and John McCain is the former chairman and former ranking member on that committee. Mike Rogers is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and Diane Feinstein is the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. And they are all bullshitting us.
Do you think that maybe that’s a problem?
You hearing war drums warming up, Booman?
It would be Iraq-level stupid if we send troops into Syria or Iran presently…no move at all (that we’ve heard of) against us has been made.
Still I can imagine the Congressional Idiots trying to pressure the President to start another expensive non-war so that their MIC sponsors can continue to feed at the government trough…
Whatever humanitarian disaster might happen in Sudan or Africa is of very little import to us, of course. The enemy of choice for America nowadays is in the Middle East, sitting on a pool of oil. I thought Iran was next up on our list, but “the Syrian people” probably need our help real soon because we are the dominant moral force on earth.
Christian Science Monitor:
The more it changes, the more it’s the same thing.
Syria has long been on the road the Tehran, the neo-con crown jewel on their wish list.
Umm, haven’t many thousand already been killed in this multiyear conflict? I believe that shipped has already sailed.
“all bullshitting us”
And on the anniversary of the illegal Iraq Invasion to boot. Dark comedy, as usual. As Alice says, the more things change, etc etc.
As for “starting” a war, Syria is already a war. It’s somewhat incredible that the Official World Policeman hasn’t made an appearance already, by all accounts that’s because of Obama, who had to fend off hawks like Hillary and Gen’ral Dave of the CIA.
We have the Libya air intervention as the model here, and that’s certainly what every one of the interventionists is thinking. Ground troops would have to be out of the question. I’ve seen arguments from military types that the Syria situation won’t work as well as Libya, too much cover, too urban, targets not as “nice” as Qaddafi junior’s armor and motorized artillery units. Who knows. I can’t say that collateral damage ever seems to be that big a deal in reality, however much public hand wringing by our compassionate gen’rals occurs.
At this point, looks like another Mid-east intervention is in the works, and the Syrian opthalmologist is probably quite aware of it. Of course, only our imperial sturmtruppen have enough of the necessary bombs, logistics, high-flyin’ electronics and experienced squadrons to accomplish this latest regime change. Oh, for the days when the French and Brits ran the Middle East….and can’t the Saudis ever do anything with all those planes?
Off to the UN Security Council for the next act!
They’re toys for the Kingdom’s playboys. They just wanta be like flyboy George W Bush and circle the safe skies of their Kingdom.
But they are funding Syrian insurgents — at least the Sunni insurgents.
Based on the bullshitters named here, I have to wonder what role Israel is playing here…
We have to gather the facts
Good advice. I think you should take it yourself.
And they are all bullshitting us.
How about we actually wait and see what the investigation turns up before holding forth on the validity of the claims?
Because the claim is bullshit, that’s why.
As for Feinstein, she sat there and listened to the Republican tell at least three lies and then said she agreed with what he said.
How about we actually wait and see what the investigation turns up before holding forth on the validity of the claims?
Because the claim is bullshit, that’s why.
The claim is such bullshit that you need to denounce it before it’s investigated.
I see. And this is based on your visit to Aleppo? Or are you just taking the opinion of the guy in Washington at gospel?
Doesn’t it usually work the other way? The people with the bullshit claim feel the need to get their story out there before all the facts are in, while the people confident in their facts want the investigation to proceed?
Jesus.
No, I don’t need to wait for the UN inspection team because there are no indications that any chemical weapon was used. None.
It’s only slightly more likely that a nuclear bomb was used.
This rumor is pure bullshit that originated with hawks who want us to intervene in Syria and was spread by hawks who want us to get involved in Syria.
If there is no indication that the missile carried a chemical weapon on it, and the Syrians’ first reaction was to call for the UN to come in and debunk the rumor and our own intelligence agencies say it was not a chemical weapon, then why the fuck would I listen to Mike Rogers and Diane Feinstein on this matter?
This rumor is pure bullshit that originated with hawks who want us to intervene in Syria and was spread by hawks who want us to get involved in Syria.
Actually, the rumor seems to have originated with the Assad regime, which accused the rebels of using a chemical weapon. So, no, not so much.
Getting the facts right matters, BooMan. You should know that as much as anyone.
Yes, yes, Jesus and fuck and all – you’re very worked up, I see – but you aren’t making any sense. “I know I’m right, so therefore, I want to make this a big political deal instead of keeping a cool head and letting the facts come out.” It doesn’t even make sense as a cynical political strategy, Jesus fuck.
Assad’s regime did accuse the rebels of using a chemical weapon, but they also called for the UN to investigate. The rebels accused Assad of using a chemical weapon. Then Israel said it was totally clear that a chemical weapon was used. Then the hawks here began spreading that as gospel.
The problem is that there was no chemical weapon in the first place. There hasn’t been one iota of evidence introduced to support that charge.
To be clear, the administration has been consistent in saying that there is no evidence, both on and off the record. It’s these fools in Congress who are pushing that angle, and several others, in an effort to get us in on this civil war.
My Senator, the bad one, says “we have been advised to be very careful with what we say”. Then she proceeds to be extremely careless about what she says.
I wish Feinstein would retire and go stand in a room with her multimilllions and drink in the delicious aroma of that sweet, sweet green. California’s views are poorly represented by this Senator’s thumping of the war drum.
Unfortunately, her craving to be in front of a camera where she can let her pedantic bullshit flow would not be satisfied by retirement, would it? The pity for us.
There are some very obvious reasons that this accusation does not pass the smell test in spite of the known Syrian CW program.
There are people trying to stampede the US into intervention in Syria and war with Iran. Those folks should be resisted. Period. Unless you are ready to commit 10 million troops to occupy Iran and another 2 million to occupy Syria.
Containment of Syria. Negotiation toward restoration of full diplomatic relations with Iran. Those should be US goals. Time to stop the chest-beating.
Why should anyone go through this exercise of basing their opinion on speculation about probabilities, when the UN inspection team is probably on the ground already, sniffing around and preparing to issue a report?
Do we suddenly not consider UN weapons inspectors reliable?
There are people trying to stampede the US into intervention in Syria and war with Iran. Those folks should be resisted.
And the best way to resist them is to put the accusation to bed with solid proof from the experts on the ground. Why is this suddenly not the standard anymore?
When the UN issues their report, let us hope that they have the integrity and haven’t been pressured like the IAEA has. And that the US government is willing to accept that maybe chemical weapons were not used.
The timing with Obama’s trip to Israel is a little too coincidental.
One of the reasons that it is not accepted on face value as the standard anymore is the way that the Bush administration manipulated the staffing of the IAEA in order to get the reports about Iran that it wanted. Mohamed el Baradei was essentially eased out because the IAEA said that Iran was within its obligations under the NPR treaty.
And that the US government is willing to accept that maybe chemical weapons were not used.
The timing with Obama’s trip to Israel is a little too coincidental.
Are you paying even the slightest attention to this story, beyond using it as grist for your narrative?
The US ambassador to Syria just poo-poo’ed it. Earlier today, an anonymous administration official poo-poo’ed it.
Can I have my reality-based community back?
I had not seen those items. Good for them.
This makes me puke:
“…we need to step up in the world community to prevent a humanitarian disaster we haven’t seen since Halabja 25 years ago in Iraq, where they killed 30,000 people with chemical weapons.”
Because the US invasion of Iraq qualifies as a much greater and more recent humanitarian disaster.
This is what I’ve been saying. Americans will forget what they did unless we keep talking about the full costs of Iraq. Americans will continue their militaristic, violent assault on the rest of the world.
“… we need to step up in the world community to prevent a humanitarian disaster we haven’t seen since Halabja 25 years ago in Iraq, where they killed 30,000 people with chemical weapons.”
Of course the gas attack was blamed on Iran by the Reagan administration and the US did all possible to white-wash Saddam Hussein of the war crime.
In the lethal attack on Halabja 5,000 villagers were massacred.
Chemical Weapons and the Iran-Iraq War: A Case Study in Noncompliance
why would the Reagan administration blame anyone, I thought the reference was to post-Gulf War time when Saddam used chemical weapons on his people after the war.
strike that, I did the math wrong
Halabja poison gas attack
The Halabja poison gas attack (Kurdish: کیمیابارانی ھەڵەبجە Kîmyabarana Helebce), also known as Halabja massacre or Bloody Friday,[1] was a genocidal massacre against the Kurdish people that took place on March 16, 1988, during the closing days of the Iran-Iraq War, when chemical weapons were used by the Iraqi government forces in the Kurdish town of Halabja in Southern Kurdistan.
Far more Iraqis than were massacred by the US and more recently than 25 years ago.
Plus those were likely US chemical weapons used in Halabja and Hussein was our friend back then fighting our number one foe.
Well, let’s face it. Things are kind of ugly on the domestic front. A war can be a pretty entertaining distraction. It gives the press something to talk about, Carl Levin gets his face on peepee, etc.
I say go for it. Let’s kill and maim more people, it’ll be FINE. Don’t worry, be war-happy, that’s my motto.
Bingo! And Obama is not Bush, right? So it’s entirely different, right?
Waiting for the Obamabot rebuttal. One…Two…Three
Remember that time when Bush didn’t say anything about a WMD claim, while the UN investigated?
Love the pre-emptive denunciation of anyone who points out the problem with your logic.
And Obama is not <del?Bush, right? So it’s entirely different, right?</del> talking about this, beating any war drums, or trying to prepare the public for a war in any way.
FTFY.
LOL, just saw this:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/ap-chemical-weapons-unlikely-in-syria-attack-us-says.php?ref=fpb
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. has strong indications that chemical weapons were not used in the attack in Syria’s Aleppo province on Tuesday, a U.S. administration official said Thursday.
While officials won’t entirely rule out the possibility, the official said that additional intelligence-gathering in recent days has led the U.S. to believe more strongly that it was not a weaponized chemical attack. The official wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter because it involved intelligence gathering and spoke on condition of anonymity.
JUST LIKE BUSH, YOU OBAMABOTS! Four…five…six…
That should be “teevee’, and I have no idea. Also don’t know why obama gets the blame for Levin et al.
“We’re taking your concerns seriously, Bibi. I’ve got this. So shut up. And btw, not dealing justly with Palestine is gonna fry Israel’s ass. Just so you know, Abbas can be dealth with.”
Have I gotten so cynical that even the purported war drums seem like interesting kabuki to dial back the drama.
What is most important is what is said behind closed doors to Netanyahu and to the the Iranians in the nuclear weapons talks.
Syria is being used as proxy to talk about that. Although the guy from Texas is a worrying development. Wonder if there are any other American players besides the US government (cough, Bush family).
Wonder if there are any other American players besides the US government
Once again, the US government doesn’t seem to have anything to do with this; it’s being pushed by the Gulf states.
It no doubt interrupts the narrative, but the US and our Gulf “allies” don’t seem to be seeing eye to eye on Syria. It’s time to acknowledge that there are other players in the world besides us.
There might be other US players involved in Syria besides the US government. Essentially, the Texas dude was named to head the essentially secular coalition that is intended to cut the Saudi and Qatari Salafists and Wahabists off politically in any new government. That means they are already playing against Saudi interests. So who set up this Chalabi-like dude? Smells Bush-ie to me.
Yep, there are more players in the world. Does the US realize it yet? Or does our State Department still see the US as the indispensable intervenor?
There might be?
No, not “there might be.” There are. We know that large factions of the Syrian public are involved. We know that al Qaeda in Iraq is sending people. We know that the Gulf states are involved. We know that the Russians are involved on the side of Assad. We know that Turkey is watching out for its own interests. None of this is “might be.”
Essentially, the Texas dude was named to head the essentially secular coalition?
He was not “named to head” it. He was elected by the membership. Does that sound “Bushie” to you? How about “cutting off” Saudi influence? Does that strike you as particularly “Bushie?” Because neither of those things sound that way to me. Quite the opposite.
Yep, there are more players in the world. Does the US realize it yet? Or does our State Department still see the US as the indispensable intervenor? The “leading from behind” State Department? Of the government that just rather notably took the back seat during the Libyan action, and is slow-walking intervention in Syria while other countries leap ahead of it? Um…yes, it’s pretty clear that they do.
OK, I give up: what does any of this have to do with Obama?
Some people loves them some narrative.
Obama is in Israel talking to Bibi Netanyahu. There is concern that Obama will agree with Bibi that there needs to be intervention in Syria and an attack on Iran.
Myself, I don’t think Obama’s that stupid, but we will have to see. There is a political stampede going on to try to divert attention from the sequester the fact that Congress is essentially shut down.
In another thread lacerda reminded us of billmon’s compilation of the Bush gang’s WMD statements. Beginning with:
What billmon nor any of us could correctly interpret in May 2003 (even though we were already aware of torture in Afghanistan and Guantanamo) were these two:
I have confidence that Obama wants no part of involving us in Syria. Others in Washington might want it to forestall the defense cuts in the sequester.
BINGO!!! Veritas78 nails something very important here.