Conservatives spent much of their time at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) bashing political consultants. Perhaps they knew something we didn’t. In today’s Politico, Alexander Burns reports that the majority of the Republican consulting class is not-so-secretly hoping that the Supreme Court will the issue the broadest possible rulings in favor of gay marriage. Here’s a sample:
“It removes the issue from the Democratic playbook of fundraising scare tactics and political demagoguery and breaks their usual messaging dynamic of, ‘You’re a beleaguered minority; let us protect you from the evil GOP — oh, and here’s your absentee ballot,’” said Florida-based Republican consultant Rick Wilson.
Wilson continued: “Democrats won’t be as happy explaining to gay business owners why Obamacare is crushing them; why the regulatory behemoth in D.C. is burying them in red tape; and why the American economy is still faltering. Republicans take an issue out of the federal domain and let states, churches and society handle it, and let’s stick to a message of growth and opportunity for every American.”
One top Republican pollster, who requested anonymity in order to speak bluntly, said that Republicans will struggle to connect with many swing voters as long as they’re perceived as the party of cultural retrenchment.
“We can’t continue to fight a losing battle on gay marriage and gay rights, and if we need the Supreme Court to help in that regard, so be it,” the pollster said…
…Republican pollster Brock McCleary said that from a purely political perspective, it would be helpful to the GOP to see gay marriage taken out of the federal debate altogether — something only the Supreme Court could achieve in the near term…
…California-based Republican consultant Reed Galen compared the gay marriage issue to immigration and said there’s an imperative to resolve the issue relatively quickly because “the longer the GOP debates the issue internally and in the media, the longer it will take to repair relationships.”
“I think it is the conventional wisdom among Republicans who believe the change in the party has to be policy-based as well as image-based,” Galen said.
Unsurprisingly, these consultants are perceived as the “libertarian” enemy by Erick Erickson and the social conservatives at the Red State blog. Erickson’s (mostly) paranoid rant seeks to educate these consultants about progressives’ nefarious plans to utterly destroy religion.
I think this is probably an academic argument because I doubt the Court will issue the kind of broadly pro-marriage rulings that the Republican consultants desire. What’s more interesting is the seam this has opened up on the right. Also interesting is how the cultural conservatives are approaching this. Overall, despite his paranoia, Mr. Erickson offers some sound advice. Social conservatives don’t want their opposition to gay marriage to carry the same social opprobrium as standard issue white supremacy in the post-Civil Rights Era, so they should focus on protecting their religious freedom to discriminate. I’d like to note for the record that even in the post-Civil Rights Era, churches may and sometimes do refuse to allow black people to attend, let alone get married to one of their white parishioners. So, Erickson is wrong when he says “We will see churches suffer the loss of their tax exempt status for refusing to hold gay weddings.” But, what happens when a religious school refuses to accept a student who has gay parents? Isn’t it vitally important that religious schools retain the ability to punish the child for the “sins” of their parents?
More seriously, there is a concern among social conservatives that their views on homosexuality will be viewed as worse than misguided but as somehow illegal. They don’t want to be treated as pariahs and shunned from polite society, but they also want to be able to discriminate as broadly as possible. Erickson makes this clear by his concern about keeping gay parents away from religious schools. He also makes it clear when he complains about florists and bakers not being able to deny services to gays.
What seems clear is that a lot of social conservatives define “religious freedom” more broadly than they should. Most of “religious freedom” pertains to what you believe. As far as it pertains to what you do, that means the freedom to participate in certain religious rites and ceremonies. It doesn’t mean that you can kick blacks and gays out of your flower shop because their very existence offends you.
Of course, your church is another matter.
How unfair this is to the wingnuts – gays used to be the main group left they could be openly bigoted about.
But I think the GOP consultants’ hope that legal gay marriage will take an issue away from the Democrats is misplace. Yes, I’m sure a few log cabin Republicans will come back to the fold, but that is a tiny percentage of the population. The impression of the GOP as culturally backwards will stick for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is that the religious wingnuts have already shifted focus from the War on Gays to the War on Women. Their hard push to criminal all abortion at the state level, especially combined with their War on Birth Control, War on Sex Ed, and their stunning Alliance with Rape, is already a force outside the control of the party bosses.
As Mike Hukabee and others have made clear, the religious right will not go along and get along on this issue. If the Supremes were to rule in a broad way against anti-gay discrimination, they would want to go to war around this in very much the same way they’ve gone to war over abortion rights. I don’t see this issue getting swept under the rug for Republicans, no matter how much the consultants might wish it were.
Erickson is just a court jester. He’s not very bright and his following is small. But his opinions are a decent measure of what is and is not acceptable amongst those on the far right.
re: Huckabee
Please proceed, Governor!
But where was Huck and all his fellow evangelicals? Liberty University had thousands of anti gay youth to bus a short distance to DC. All the TV Christians (Bakker, Swaggart, 700 club, etc.) should have been on the Mall. I expected a big showing from them a they were a no show.
Those conveniently anonymous consultants may see it all as “good news for John McCain,” but I suspect that the rapid shift to acceptance of gay marriage, and hopefully, to acceptance of non-discrimination against gays in general, is causing a real crisis for those whose entire self-concept and world view is based on bigotry. In many ways it parallels the shock that racists experienced when Obama was elected (and reelected!). Eventually they have to abandon all the contortions of logic used to deny that they are in a shrinking minority. That realization stokes their feelings of victimhood, but it also saps any feelings of power they may have and could easily lead to helplessness and apathy — not a recipe for electoral strength.
Yeah whatever. If they don’t like being called bigots, they could always try not being bigots.
why you have to bring truth to the conversation?
Some truth from an unlikely source, Rush Limbaugh:
“Now, the political ramifications of that are yet to be known. I mean, the Republican Party, for example, could be looking at its ultimate demise here, depending on how it deals with this. Because they do have multiple millions of voters who are evangelical Christians who on religious grounds alone don’t support homosexual marriage and are not going to support a political party that does. So then the Republicans in that circumstance would be faced, if you were to lose multiple millions of voters over this, they are going to have to replace them somewhere. How do they do it? Do they try to siphon off most of the gay vote that’s going to the Democrats?
Let me give you Dick Cheney as an example. Dick Cheney is on the cutting edge of this. Dick Cheney, as you know, has a gay daughter. Dick Cheney went public in support of gay marriage, what, eight years ago? And the last I looked, those people still hate his guts. They still despise Dick Cheney. Dick Cheney coming out for gay marriage did not soften the opposition or the hatred to him by people in the Democrat Party or on the left a measurable iota. So in terms of the politics of it in the Republican Party, if they think that they can alienate their evangelical base and replace those voters by becoming more hip, modern, with it, what have you, that remains to be seen. Nobody really knows. But the evidence is that they are not going to be able to do that.”
Setting aside, for the moment, his characterization of Darth as “cutting edge,” everything else seems pretty much spot on. Merely embracing gay equality isn’t going to bring liberals or independents running into the fold. Perhaps it neutralizes a negative for the GOP, but at the cost of alienating a significant part of its base.
He then went on to discuss immigration and the similar dilemma facing Republicans. I don’t see these issues going away anytime soon. Things are going to get worse for them before they get better. Ultimately there will be some sort of major realignment, but when and what it will look like is impossible to predict. However, I do think it’s safe to say this realignment will be preceded by significantly more pain on the right than they’ve felt so far. It’s going to take a real drubbing or two at the national level.
Who knows honestly. But in NOVA where I am (and a good swath of NW DC) social issues are the only reason why people vote Democratic. It’s upper income, well educated, people who honestly like the Republican economic plan (cut our taxes, spew defense money, fuck poor rural people they had their chance and blew it, I went to a good school, it’s my money!!!!!!!), but run screaming from their views on abortion, gay marriage, and race. They don’t want to be associated with that part of the Republican party.
It’s full of the sort of centrist “why can’t we just let the gays get married, and then get back to cutting taxes and social security” nonsense you see on TV. The income level in this area doesn’t hurt.
If there was less “shame” in being a Republican because of social issues, you’d see a lot more of it. Because currently there’s a lot of “well the Republicans are right on economic issues, but they are too crazy on social issues to support”.
I don’t know if enough of those types would spill over to make up for the loss of evangelicals. But a lot of the current Democratic party were Republicans who are just scared shitless of the Jesus brigade, and do not want to be associated with that at all.
I foresee calls for an amendment.
“Nothing in this constitution shall be understood to forbid states to legalize same-sex marriage or to require them to do so.”
I suppose you have to imagine being so convinced that yours is the one true faith that you don’t even see other religions as religions. So there’s no such thing as “a” religion, there is just Religion. If you look at it that way, the first amendment is contradictory. How can you freely exercise Religion under a government of infidels?
The momentum of national acceptance is what is taking all of us by surprise. This week only added fuel to that fire and now more and more of ‘the isolated’ are looking around to find they hadn’t realized they were indeed surrounded by loved ones and friends who were gay and up until very recently hadn’t felt comfortable in sharing their identity.
The civil rights of adopted childrens’ parents; John Roberts & his wife have an inkling into that; Thomas & his Ginny surely recognize the irony of the civil right that allowed them to marry. Hard to deny that they have skin in the game.
Erikson personifies those that have given up trying to get ahead of this, now they’re just trying not to lose their “superiority”.